Super Bowl LIX Best Bets:

Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and Eagles isn’t the only thing that we are talking about on air this week, but it is certainly dominating the discussion. Our hosts are busy putting together their favorite Super Bowl LIX best bets, whether that means a prop, side or total wager, or something else.

We’ll be updating this article throughout the week as hosts submit their best bets, so bookmark this page and be sure to check back early and often.

 

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Note: All host picks are listed in alphabetical order by last name. Current hosts/contributors so far are Josh Appelbaum, Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, Joe Ceraulo, Sean Green, Will Hill, Pauly Howard, Ryan Kramer, Jensen Lewis, Mitch Moss, Greg Peterson, Dave Ross, Scott Seidenberg, Tyler Shoemaker, Mike Somich, Dustin Swedelson, Ben Wilson with more to come!

Check out Matt Youmans’ Super Bowl LIX picks as a separate article! We also have Brent Musburger’s pick on Chiefs vs. Eagles, prop bets from Steve Makinen, Adam Burke, Dave Tuley, and Matt Devine, and we’ll have cross-sport props for the NHL and NBA as well.

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Super Bowl LIX Matchup

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets

Super Bowl LIX Betting Splits

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets from VSiN Hosts/Contributors

Josh Appelbaum

Chiefs Moneyline -125

Kansas City opened as a short 1-point or 1.5-point favorite. All movement and liability has been on the Chiefs as the market has settled on Kansas City -1.5. However, several shops are juicing up Chiefs -1.5 (-115) and some books even touched -2 at times over the past week. We have yet to see this line fall down to -1. Reading between the lines, it appears as though the books have taken a position on Kansas City as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor. At Circa, the Chiefs are only getting 52% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of Pros in the desert backing Kansas City.

Mahomes is 16-0 straight up as a favorite this season. He is 95-22 (81%) straight up in his career as a favorite, including 13-3 (81%) straight up as a favorite in the postseason. Mahomes is also a perfect 8-0 against teams featuring Vic Fangio as their head coach or defensive coordinator. 

Aside from the market movement, bet split and historical data, I also refuse to bet against Mahomes. I made the mistake of taking the Eagles against the Chiefs two years ago in the Super Bowl. Since that time, I vowed to never bet against Mahomes in a big game again and, up until this point, it’s been an undefeated strategy. I took the Chiefs in last year’s big game against the 49ers and again in this year’s AFC Championship game against the Bills. 

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 

PS: I’m a big proponent of moneylining short favorites instead of laying the points. Yes, you are paying a few more cents in terms of juice, but if the Chiefs win by one-point you cash your moneyline bet instead of losing if you’re laying -1.5.

Matt Brown 

Kareem Hunt Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-110) 

This line has widely moved to 11.5, but I’d still feel comfortable playing it at that number. Kareem Hunt has clearly taken over as the No. 1 back in KC. He got more carries than Isiah Pacheco in the last four meaningful games that the Chiefs have played, and has looked the part. The Eagles play a ton of light boxes on defense, which might entice the Chiefs to see early-on if they can have any success on the ground against that dominant line. The first drive alone could get us 4-5 carries if the Chiefs can convert a first down or two. I also played Hunt Over his rush yards and think it’s fair to play up to 45.5 yards. A dart on MVP isn’t completely out of the question.  

Dallas Goedert Super Bowl MVP (125/1) 

Like some other of my colleagues in here, I jumped on the Dallas Goedert opener and have an Over ticket on his receiving yards. So, since that case has already been made, let’s get wacky and try to cash a miracle ticket. Close your eyes and imagine a disgusting game in which the Eagles prevail. Both offenses move the ball with long, clock-burning drives, but struggle to score touchdowns and settle for FGs or turnover on downs. Despite the struggle on offense to get in the end zone, the defenses aren’t forcing turnovers (preventing a defensive MVP). Saquon only goes for 71 scoreless yards. The strong corners for the Chiefs mostly neutralize A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Jalen Hurts only throws for 181 yards, but his favorite over-the-middle target in Goedert secures seven receptions (like he did against Washington) and hauls in 85 of those 181 pass yards. Exploiting the Chiefs weak defense versus tight ends, one of those catches is for a touchdown and two of them moved the chains for key first downs. Goedert goes to Disneyland. A boy can dream.

Adam Burke

Get Adam’s Super Bowl LIX prop bets and analysis of the First TD Scorer and MVP markets.

Kelley Bydlon 

Patrick Mahomes To Win MVP +120 

If you like the Chiefs side, this makes too much sense. You’re getting 40+ cents better than the Chiefs moneyline for a guy we’ve seen voters rush to give this to three times already. I think it’s a smart play whether it’s a bet instead of the Chiefs ML, or if you want to add to your Chiefs positions.

Kareem Hunt Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Under 8.5 yards (-105)

Both of these are kinda correlated to me. It’s become pretty clear that Isiah Pacheco is still working back from his injury and Kareem Hunt is the more reliable back right now. Pacheco’s workload has only been getting lower in the playoffs. He’s had a total of 10 carries for 30 yards in the Chiefs’ two games. I expect Hunt to get the bulk of carries for KC.

Joe Ceraulo

Chiefs -1 (-110) 

Betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the postseason? I don’t think so. I’ve bet on Kansas City in all four Super Bowls they’ve appeared in during the Mahomes Era, and it’s worked 75% of the time, so I’m not stopping now. They’ve also obviously won nine straight playoff games, but more impressively, they’ve covered eight in a row. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but Patrick Mahomes is the best two-minute (or 13-second) drill quarterback in postseason history. If this game comes down to Kansas City’s final possession, I’ll be very confident knowing my money is on the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes Longest Carry Over 11.5 Yards (-110) 

This number’s long gone, and is now between 12.5 and 13.5, but at 12.5, I would still take it. Mahomes has had a single carry of 13 or more yards in 11 of his last 18 playoff games (and each of his three Super Bowl wins). He’s also taken off for a single carry of 22 yards or more in four of his last seven playoff games, including his last two Big Game appearances. He may not spend his regular season running, but when the playoffs roll around, no quarterback is better at sensing a collapsing pocket, and taking off to move the chains, than Mahomes. I prefer the longest carry prop to rushing yards, because there’s always the possibility of negative “carries” if he has to take a knee, or three, at the end.

Travis Kelce Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 

Kelce is my MVP pick at 18/1 (consider it my wildest dreams if this one hits), so of course I’m going to take him over his yards number. He’s undoubtedly lost a step, in terms of straight-line speed, but the man’s still trouble when he walks in. He’s as shifty and good at getting open as he was when he was 22, and he’s also one of those guys who turns it on in the playoffs. Prior to the AFC Championship game against Buffalo, he’d gone for 71+ receiving yards in 14(!) straight playoff games, so yeah, give me the Over on 60.5 receiving yards.

Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+140)

In addition to the incredible streak of receiving yards listed above, Kelce has scored a touchdown in 14 of his 20 playoff games alongside Mahomes, totaling 19 scores in those 20 contests. Like I said, he may be slower, but he’s still the same agile, shifty target who always seems to be in sync with his QB. Give me Kelce to slip free in the end zone for a score. With all the money I have tied into Kelce props, it’s either going to be a great day… or it’s gonna go down in flames.

Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+150) 

When Kelce’s time to hang it up comes, expect Worthy to be 15’s new favorite target. This kid has grown a ton as a route runner, polished receiver and a swiss-army knife for the Chiefs in year one. Andy Reid is as creative a mind as the league’s ever seen when it comes to goal-to-go play calling, and whether it’s in the air or on the ground, I expect Worthy to get a few cracks at the end zone.

Xavier Worthy Over 5.5 Rush Yards (-110) – There’s a little more juice tied into this number than when I placed it last week, but I still love the play. Andy Reid’s given a receiver (or tight end) at least one carry in ALL four Super Bowls he’s led Kansas City to. The crazy part is, none of them have rushed for more than five yards in the big game. I fully believe that trend ends here. Worthy has rushed for 10 or more yards in four of his last five contests (the Week 18 third-stringer game against Denver doesn’t count), and is as explosive as any potential ball carrier in this league, maybe save for Jahmyr Gibbs. I also think Worthy is likely to get multiple carries in this one (+115 if you want to play over 1.5 carries), so 5.5 should be a relatively easy number to clear.

Jalen Hurts Completions & Attempts Alt. Numbers – I’m all in on Kansas City, which means one thing: I fully believe they’re going to make Philly deviate from Saquon and their historic rushing offense. Jalen Hurts has lost three playoff games in his career, and those happen to be the games where he’s put up his biggest passing numbers. His only three playoff games with 23+ completions, 30+ attempts (35+ to be exact) and 250+ passing yards, were ALL losses. So, let’s start with 30+ attempts (+145 at DK). Like I said, he’s thrown 35 or more passes in all three playoff losses, including 38 the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl, so I expect Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to do what made them successful last time around and force Hurts to throw the ball. Now, despite losing playoff games when he’s forced to throw the ball 30+ times in the playoffs, Hurts tends to put up decent numbers, which is why I’m putting a unit on him to complete 20+ passes (+130 at DK), and a half-unit on 22+ completions (+260 at DK). Kansas City would rather force Philly to beat them in the air, than allow them to run amok, so give me all the Hurts alt lines in his completions and attempts market.

Sean Green

Eagles ML+104 

I understand the people who want to ride the Chiefs simply because they have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and respect that handicap. I’ll just start by pointing out that even the greatest QB and coach combo of all time Belichick and Brady didn’t go undefeated in Super Bowls. The formula for beating Mahomes is a three-parter; win the DL / OL battle, dominate time of possession and win the turnover battle. The Eagles have the No. 1 defense, they lead the league in time of possession and rank second in the league in turnover margin. They’ll play great defense pound the rock and like a giant anaconda they’ll slowly squeeze the life out of this Chiefs team.

The Eagles prevented Brady and Belichick from a Super Bowl threepeat and they’ll do the same to Mahomes and Reid come Sunday. 

Jahan Dotson +8500 FIRST TD

In my mind, this is a sky high price for a first TD for a guy who is going to be on the field a ton and running routes. His snap share in the playoffs has been pretty consistent as well with 57%, 62% and 55%. The Eagles have gotten the first TD in 75% of their games compared to just 57.9% for the Chiefs (stat via Adam Burke’s great First TD column). Normally the Eagles usually go chalky with their first TD, but Dotson has a legit chance and let’s not forget he’s already cashed this in the Packers game in the Wild Card round.

Will Hill

Overtime (Yes) +1000

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Chiefs do usually provide the fans with close, competitive football games to watch. When these teams met a couple of years ago in the Super Bowl, it was 35-35 in the final seconds until the Chiefs won the game with a late field goal. Last year, the Chiefs and 49ers needed overtime to decide the champion. With a game lined around 1, and two very evenly-matched teams, getting 10 to 1 on overtime is a fun bet that could get home at long odds.

Pauly Howard

Both Teams To Have A One Yard TD (Yes +310)

One team doing this has cashed 7 of the last 9

Longest TD Drive Under 80.5 Yards

How many times will a team just be in position to do this let alone pull it off? Two good defenses- 81 Yard TD drive a big ask

Shortest Scoring Drive Over 59.5 Seconds

Total Turnovers 2.5 Under -170

Chiefs one turnover in the last 9 games
Eagles have played clean all 3 playoff games

Ryan Kramer

Noah Gray First Touchdown +3500

Sure Noah Gray only has one 1st TD for the Chiefs all season, BUT I firmly believe that Andy Reid and Mahomes will attack the Vic Fangio (note I have great respect for Vic, as he wouldn’t disclose his meatball recipe) defense from the TE/SLOT using misdirection, screen game and a moving pocket to attack the weakness of the Eagles defense, the linebackers and safeties in coverage. Close your eyes, the ball is on the 16 yard line, play action to the right, Noah Gray down the seam on the left, back shoulder catch TOUCHDOWN. (I also like Noah Gray 50+ receiving yards +1250 and Noah Gray 1Q receiving yards leader +1700) 

Saquon Barkley Under 2.5 Catches + 50+ Receiving Yards (+4300)

Ah the beauty of reverse correlation. Certainly at this point you have done your own deep dive on the turf in New Orleans and know that Barkley is likely to have an explosive play or two. Barkley has only gone over 2.5 receptions in 5/19 games this season (explains the heavy -180 juice), and only 1 of his last eight! This suggests to me that his work in the pass game will continue to be limited. I LOVE the idea of bolting on a big play concept like over 49.5 receiving yards to take this price full moon shot level at +4300.

Jensen Lewis

*YES: 3 unanswered scores (-160)

*Dallas Goedert 50+ rec yds (-140)

*Patrick Mahomes Under 249.5 pass yards (-115)

*AJ Brown 70+ rec yds (-114)

*Xavier Worthy most receiving yards (+360)

*PARLAY: +104 = Saquon Barkley 125+ rush & rec yds / alt. Game total Over 43.5

The key to Philadelphia’s success this season has been getting the ball in the hands of Saquon Barkley in any way possible. It’s hard to see No.26 not getting 30+ touches in the biggest game of the year and his ability to break off a 50+ yard play is always a threat. While the Chiefs defense might manage to slow him down in the first half, it will take a significant physical toll to do so. One big play from the Eagles star running back and his combined scrimmage yards prop becomes very achievable, no matter how the game unfolds.

Both offenses have been effective in the red zone and halftime adjustments could make the second half the highest-scoring part of the game. I’ll call my shots on touchdowns scored from Mahomes, Hunt, Worthy, Hurts, Goedert and Barkley. Instead of teasing the side and total, I’m focusing on what I believe is the more predictable outcome – taking the alternate over 43.5 points.

*PARLAY: +224 = Saquon Barkley anytime TD/Jalen Hurts anytime TD

More additions:

*Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards (-115)

*AJ Brown 25+ receiving yards in each half (+115)

*PARLAY: +156 = Saquon Barkley 20+ rush attempts / Kareem Hunt 40+ rush yards 

*Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+165)

*Over 2.5 players to record a pass attempt (+180)

Steve Makinen

Get Steve Makinen’s Super Bowl LIX bets and box score projection.

Mitch Moss

Eagles Team Total Over 23.5

The AFC title game has nothing to do with the Super Bowl, BUT the Bills scored 29 points in that loss and I’d call their offensive performance “decent” that day. Buffalo racked up 374 yards against the Chiefs defense while averaging 5.5 yards per play. The latter would’ve ranked outside the top 10 in the regular season across the entire league. James Cook was fantastic (13-85-2 TDs), but not much else jumps off the page when looking at the box score. Factor in Joe Mixon’s line in the divisional round (18-88-1), and it gets even easier to build a case for Saquon Barkley to finish his incredible season in style. Barkley has turned into Barry Bonds every time he touches the ball. He’s the biggest matchup nightmare for the KC defense, but not the only one. Tight end Dallas Goedert should be able to exploit the Chiefs as they allowed the second most receiving yards to the position in the regular season. Philly receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith aren’t exactly chopped liver. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts would’ve been the Super Bowl MVP two years ago had the team not blown a double-digit lead in the second half. He finished with 304 yards passing and a touchdown. Hurts added 70 yards on the ground with three more scores. Plenty of reasons to see the Eagles going over this number. 

More additions:

Jahan Dotson Over 1.5 receiving yards (-140) and Over 0.5 receptions (-125)

Dotson hasn’t caught a pass since the Wild Card win versus Green Bay, BUT he did catch a pass in 12 of the other 18 games he played in. He will be on the field in this game as his snap share in the playoffs looks like this (in order of games played): 57%, 62%, and 55%.

Grant Calcaterra Over 0.5 receiving yards (+130)

Similar to Dotson, Calcaterra hasn’t caught a pass since the playoff game against the Packers. Something else he has in common: catching a pass in 12 of the other 18 games he played. He was also targeted in 14 of those games. It’s a bet for me based on KC’s struggles versus the tight end position. 

Dallas Goedert +10.5 receiving yards vs. Travis Kelce and +135 straight up in a matchup

Goedert has a chance to shine going up against one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends. Fading Kelce like this can result in a cruel fate, but Philly’s defense was elite at slowing down tight ends in the regular season.

Greg Peterson

George Karlaftis Over 3.5 Tackles +114

While Chris Jones gets a lot of the attention on the Chiefs defense, George Karlaftis has stepped up and become an anchor on that defense as a primary pass rusher. While his specialty is rushing the passer, he will also be needed to help bring down Saquon Barkley, who figures to be in line for a heavy workload and in this postseason. Karlaftis has shown the ability to also help stuff the run with nine total tackles in their two playoff wins.

Dave Ross 

Isiah Pacheco Over 1.5 Catches (+185)

Couldn’t pass this up. And something Mark Dominik brought to my attention on By The Books. 

Kareem Hunt is clearly the No. 1. But, as Pacheco is finally rounding back into full-speed game shape, he’s become the “forgotten man”. Not by Andy Reid nor Mahomes. Even in his scaled down role, he still got two catches vs. Buffalo in the AFC title game. I could easily see his role increased ever so slightly in the final game of the year and hopefully used in space as the Chiefs love to utilize the screen game.

Scott Seidenberg

Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-142)

Dallas Goedert has become a focal point of this Eagles passing offense. In three playoff games this year, Goedert has 15 catches on 18 targets for 188 yards. The Chiefs this season were one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends. They finished tied for the second-most receptions allowed (6.2 per game) and allowed the most yards (70 per game). When these two teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Goedert finished with six catches for 60 yards. 

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Under 25.5 yards (-120)

You may be able to get an Under 26.5 come Sunday as the public will continue to bet this over. Last week, this was the No. 1 most bet prop of Championship Sunday and of course Barkley went over on the first carry of the game, the 60 yard touchdown. The KC rush defense is different though. This season, KC allowed only six runs of 25+ yards. Three of those, were to opposing quarterbacks in Josh Allen, Bo Nix and CJ Stroud. As the public will hopefully continue to inflate this line, take the Under on Barkley’s longest rush as long as you get anything over 25.5 yards.

Tyler Shoemaker

Eagles Team Total Over 23.5

After dropping a 50-burger on Washington in the NFC Championship game, this offense with Saquon Barkley looks nearly unstoppable right now. My T Shoe Index is comprised of multiple facets of a team’s performance throughout the season, and takes an average of season-long metrics with a team’s last few games. That said, the Eagles’ numbers, no matter which way you slice them, indicate they should get Over this 23.5-point line against a stout KC defense. The only reason I’m not giving out Eagles +1.5 is because it’s tough to bet against a Mahomes-led team in the Super Bowl, but I think Hurts, Barkley and the Eagles can at least hang some points on them to make Pat sweat a little bit.

Mike Somich

Xavier Worthy Over 5.5 Rush Yards

Two key stats support this play. First, Andy Reid has now called a run play for a non-RB or QB in twenty straight playoff games. It’s highly likely that this will be 21 straight games after the Super Bowl and Worthy is likely to get that carry. Secondly, in the 18 Chiefs games this season, excluding the final week vs. Denver, Worthy has gotten at least one carry in 15 of those games and at least two carries in six of those. Four of those six multi-carry games have come in the last five weeks. He’s eclipsed the six-yard mark in nine of those 18 games. Let’s jump on the Over.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions

Unlike past years, the Chiefs do not have a consistent run game to lean on and the Eagles have a stout front seven that should be able to keep Kansas City in check on the ground. That means Mahomes will have to attack through the air against a two-high safety look while the Eagles rush their front four. We have seen Mahomes and Reid prepare against these defenses for years and it has consistently meant a dink and dunk style of offense that focused on short passes.

Shorter passes should lead to a higher completion percentage and a likelihood that Mahomes goes Over this number.

Isiah Pacheco Under 9.5 Longest Rush

Let’s just call it the way it is, Pacheco is not close to 100% off his earlier knee injury. He recorded just five carries in both playoff games and has clearly become the No. 2 in the Chiefs backfield behind Kareem Hunt. He has a 10+ yard run in just three of the nine games that he has played in this season and will face a tough defense in the Super Bowl with limited run opportunities.

Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 Carries

The Eagles will see on tape that this once vaunted Chiefs run defense has fallen back down to earth since Week 12. They allowed Houston to run the ball in the Divisional Round and the Bills in the AFC Title game. Philly has been content to win games on the ground and with their defense all season. I expect more of the same here. Expect a heavy dose of Barkley early and often.

Dustin Swedelson

Dallas Goedert Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

The Eagles receiving options have gone through trials and tribulations this season. The one consistent piece of late has been Dallas Goedert. Including the playoffs, he has cleared this number in three of his last four games and now faces a Kansas City defense that has been generous to tight ends all season long. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to TEs in the regular season at 70.59 yards per contest. Seven of the last eight TEs to take on KC’s defense that had this prop offered (Broncos TE Nate Adkins did not) have cleared their receiving yard total, averaging 56.75 yards per game.

MVP: CJ Gardner-Johnson 250/1

Patrick Mahomes threw 11 interceptions this season. Seven of Mahomes’ INTs this year were intended for a TE, with four going to Travis Kelce. I think Gardner-Johnson gets the Kelce assignment and, if the Eagles front can pressure Mahomes into an errant pass or two in his direction, a big turnover or two could jump off the page to voters in what I expect to be a low-scoring game. CGJ could wind up with a Larry Brown/Super Bowl XXX like performance. 

Dave Tuley

Catch Dave Tuley’s Super Bowl LIX spread and total thoughts and prop bets.

Ben Wilson

Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals (-145)

Philadelphia is a defense you can move the ball against between the 30s, but actually finding the end zone on them is a much different story. Vic Fangio’s D finished the year 5th in Red Zone TD% Allowed and only got better as the season went on. The success Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have had against Fangio-led teams has been well-documented (8 games, 8 wins), but Fangio has always made life tough on Mahomes in the red zone. In those games, the Chiefs only scored 15 offensive TDs and settled for 23 field goals (16 of which were inside the 20). Add in Harrison Butker’s elite postseason pedigree (36 for 40 on field goals in the playoffs), plus the game being played in a dome, and you get a line that should be priced more like -185 than the -145 I played earlier in the week.

Matt Youmans

Catch Matt’s Super Bowl LIX prop bets here.

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