TNF Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 6 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 6, that game features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This game might not look like much on paper, but you never know what will happen when divisional rivals go at it. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Broncos vs. Chiefs preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Broncos vs. Chiefs
Date: Thursday, October 12
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread
It feels like the Broncos hit rock bottom last week. After having earned a massive comeback win over the Chicago Bears in Week 4, Denver followed it up with a 31-21 home loss to the New York Jets. The Broncos are now 1-4 straight-up and 0-4-1 against the spread this season, and they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last four games. The Broncos are also last in the league in Defensive DVOA, and it’s by a significant margin. This Denver defense is an absolute disaster right now, and the Broncos must now go into a difficult road environment and try to slow down an offense that is fourth in the league in EPA per play. That said, it’s hard to find many reasons to like Denver here.
After losing in Week 1, the Chiefs have won four games in a row and have covered in three of those games. And it’s hard to even fault Kansas City for the Week 1 loss, as the team lost by just one point against a good Detroit Lions team. The Chiefs played without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, two of their best players, in that game. It also was a game that the Chiefs probably win if a few receivers stepped up and helped Patrick Mahomes. They were plagued by drops in that one. So, this Kansas City team really hasn’t lost at full strength yet. Now, the team will get a crack at one of the worst teams in football, and they’ll be doing it at home on a short week. That significantly tips the scale in Kansas City’s favor, and that’s without factoring in on-field stuff.
I just don’t see much of a path towards the Broncos keeping this game close, even though Denver’s offense has been a little better than advertised this year. The reality there is that Kansas City’s defense is good enough to slow Denver down. But the same can’t be said about the Broncos defense.
The only thing working in Denver’s favor here is that the team has covered in three consecutive meetings with Kansas City. And for as bad as Russell Wilson was last season, he oddly had a 4-2 TD-INT ratio in two meetings with the Chiefs. So, there was something about this matchup that Wilson liked, and the offense around him has only gotten better. So, maybe he can find a way to keep his team from getting blown out here. But I’m as big of a Wilson fan as you’ll find and I still don’t think that happens.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Total
It feels like the Under is the sharper side in this game, but I am leaning towards the Over and can’t quite help myself. The Over has now hit in four straight games for the Broncos, with all four of them pretty easily clearing the total on this game. Now, Denver has to try and stop a Mahomes-led offense and only had three days to try and work on things and get healthy. That said, I think you’ll see the Chiefs hang a big number in this game. And considering Wilson had success against the Chiefs last year, I also think the Broncos will do their part in helping Over bettors.
I don’t generally like to take the Over on Thursday Night Football games, but this is an exception for me. And the fact that each of the last three games that these two have played against one another have gone Over the total is a big part of that. It’s also hard to ignore that the Over is 7-5 in the 12 Thursday games that the Chiefs have played under head coach Andy Reid.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props
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Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Last week, the Broncos gave up four catches for 67 yards to Jets tight end Tyler Conklin. The week before that, Denver allowed Cole Kmet to finish with seven catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns. With the team struggling to cover opposing tight ends, it just feels like Kelce should be able to find some holes in the defense. I know he’s not playing at 100% strength right now, but I think he’ll move well enough to turn in a big game here. And it doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are still waiting for one of their wide receivers to emerge as a go-to option for Mahomes.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
I’m not a big fan of laying double digits, but I don’t see any way around it if you’re playing this game. I don’t think the Broncos defense will be able to slow down the Chiefs offense. And that will put a lot of pressure on a Denver offense that looked anemic against New York last week.
Lean: Chiefs -10.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Broncos vs. Chiefs!
