As always, there will be a plethora of information to digest on the Super Bowl matchup, from stats, matchups, and “expert” predictions to other more fun and entertaining tidbits. I have become known for my love of historical trends and systems to handicap all kinds of sporting events, and I have shared my most valuable information with our loyal readers since VSiN began in 2017. 

If you’ve been with us at any point since then, you probably recall my annual Super Bowl Betting Trends & Systems article. Don’t fret. That full article will be back again in the lead-up to Super Bowl 59. For the purposes of our 2025 Super Bowl Betting Guide, I’ve been asked to put together a more succinct piece, simply highlighting my Top 10 Super Bowl Trends and how they will factor into this year’s matchup: Eagles vs. Chiefs. These trends are ordered in the order of importance for recent Super Bowl handicapping. Remember, I picked these out last week before even knowing the matchup. As far as the line/total was concerned, as of this writing, we had Kansas City -1.5/49.5.

 

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Trend #1 – The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 30-20 SU all-time but has lost 12 of the last 14 and is on a 1-16 ATS skid since 2004!
This is almost too insane to believe. Especially if you harken back to the early 90s, when the better team always won, seemingly by spectacular margins. The team that is the better playoff seed is also just 2-16-2 ATS (11.1%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games, with equal-seeded matchups eight times in that span. This huge game has become not so much a confirmation of the body of work but rather a single game decided by which team executes better on that particular day. These premier trends will be in play, as Kansas City, a #1 seed, was 15-2 in the regular season and Philadelphia, a #2 seed, was 14-3.

Trend #2 – The outright winner is 48-7-3 ATS (87.3%) in the 58 previous Super Bowls.
This is the highest mark of any playoff round. Interestingly, one of those ATS losses did occur as recently as 2022, when Cincinnati became the first underdog to cover a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6 points. The general thought is that champions typically leave little doubt in this game. Consider this if you have any concern about laying points with Kansas City, or alternatively, taking a money line wager with the underdog Eagles.

Trend #3 – Underdogs in the Super Bowl own a 17-6 ATS (73.9%) edge over the last 23 years, including 13-4 ATS in the last 17.
This follows a pattern established in #1. The motivation of being an underdog in the biggest game an athlete has ever played is a solid motivator. Kansas City has pulled off outright upsets in each of the last two SB games as exactly 1.5-point underdogs. For this season, early line action finds Kansas City as a small 1.5-point favorite over Philadelphia. 

Trend #4 – Teams looking for their first Super Bowl win against a prior champion are 6-8 but 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 chances.
Each passing year, this trend is becoming more and more scarce, but there are still 12 current franchises that have never won the big one. It seems that teams getting a first shot at a Super Bowl title truly relish the opportunity and show up ready to be competitive. I’m not saying that teams looking for additional titles take it for granted, but perhaps the motivation of winning a first one is the ultimate juice. There was a late chance this trend would have been in play, but only if Buffalo would have won the AFC title.

Trend #5 – Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in the last nine Super Bowl games.

This trend includes Kansas City from a year ago. If you check out my Super Bowl Betting Trends & Systems piece to be released a bit later, you will see that the importance of defensive statistics far outweighs that of offensive numbers in terms of how it relates to recent Super Bowl success.  Philadelphia allowed fewer points than Kansas City in the regular season, 17.8 PPG to 19.2. 

Trend #6 – Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season also own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (7.7%) in the last 13!
I mentioned in #5 above that it is important to boast strong defensive scoring numbers recently going into Super Bowl games. It’s been quite the opposite for prolific offensive numbers. Recently, the old saying “defense wins championships” has been fruitful. Remember, defensive coordinators have two full weeks to get ready for these explosive offenses, as well as the talent to hold them down. Philadelphia holds this “edge” significantly in 2025, 367.2 YPG to 327.6.

Trend #7 – Regarding in-game statistics derived, teams with an edge in at least three of four key statistical categories—rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession—are 40-6 SU and 36-9-1 ATS (80%).
There is a certain “recipe” for success in the Super Bowl, and I’ve found that it stems a lot from the four key stat categories I’ve noted. However, amazingly, four of those outright losses were in the last 10 games, including 2023. Still, I stand by my belief. For those of you looking to project this type of information for 2025, turnovers can be hard to project, although the amount of pressure each team’s defense puts on an opposing quarterback can prove to be a good indicator. The other stats should be relatively predictable for any advanced handicapper or service regularly using sophisticated statistical models for simulation. Forecasting these numbers accurately can certainly be worth the effort, assuming the game plays out close to the norms. I actually produce a follow-up article in this guide forecasting the team and individual statistical numbers. If you’re wondering about the regular season stats, Philadelphia was superior in all four categories, including time of possession, where it ranked #1 in the NFL. 

Trend #8 – Bettors are 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 games in which they moved opening totals.
This trend includes a streak of seven straight winners on total moves, so this could be an emerging strategy to follow for recreational bettors. The line move winning percentages were much worse. Follow that action in the hours leading up to kickoff if you believe in this type of analysis. For what it’s worth, there was no movement to either the line or total since opening on Sunday night.

Trend #9 – Looking back at the last 23 Super Bowls in terms of 6-point teaser trends, underdogs are 20-3 (87%).
An 87% teaser trend moving a line just 6 points is nothing to take lightly. For what it’s worth, in this same 23-game span, favorites on the 6-point teaser line are just 13-10. Consider this as you craft your wagers for the 2025 game. An underdog 6-point teaser would put Philadelphia at +7.5, likely a very attractive wager for many bettors. 

Trend #10 – Since 1979, there have been 28 teams to hit the 30-point mark in the Super Bowl game. Their record: 25-3 SU and 24-4 ATS.
Of course, in 2023, Philadelphia put up 35 points, the most ever for a losing team. Don’t let that memory tarnish what has been a prolific trend. Scoring 30 points has proven paramount in the big game. Can you see either the Chiefs or Eagles hitting 30 in Super Bowl 59? If so, that team should probably be the one you are backing, regardless of the point spread. For what it’s worth, the 32 points the Chiefs put up in the AFC title game were their highest all season long. The Eagles scored 30+ on seven occasions. Both teams allowed 30+ points two times.

For more Super Bowl analysis, visit the Super Bowl Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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