NFL Survivor picks for Week 11
If Thanksgiving is a day that means a lot to you in your Survivor pool, then Week 10 may not have worked out as you had hoped. For the purposes of this article, I’m only taking the 18 weeks as they are, since not everybody uses those holiday wrinkles. For the Circa Survivor, where Thanksgiving is a separate week, the Bengals and Bills going down hurt a lot of people, myself included.
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The next few weeks are pretty tricky. There are not a ton of big favorites coming up and teams like the Steelers, Vikings, Titans, and Buccaneers will be among the best options. This week has a handful of options and those with Thanksgiving on the brain only have six options (and really three, given the projected lines and matchups). Obviously anything can happen and we’ve seen lots of injuries at important positions derail teams, but for those planning ahead, the anxiety is on the rise.
For the purposes of this article, we’re still moving forward. I am playing it by the traditional rules and the article picks are still alive heading into Week 11. Here are the teams used so far: Commanders (Week 1), Bills (Week 2), Chiefs (Week 3), 49ers (Week 4), Dolphins (Week 5), Rams (Week 6), Seahawks (Week 7), Ravens (Week 8), Browns (Week 9), and Cowboys (Week 10).
All teams are available for the “Teams to Consider” section, but only one can be the pick and it cannot be a team I’ve used so far.
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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider
Miami Dolphins over Las Vegas Raiders
Positive vibes and coaching changes can have major impacts on teams and we’ve seen that with the Raiders so far, as they’ve gone 2-0 against the Giants and Jets. However, the Dolphins are not the Giants or the Jets. The Dolphins are a team that has beaten up on inferior competition and the Raiders very much fit that description.
Miami is coming off of a bye, so evil genius Mike McDaniel has had a lot of time to prep for this matchup and figure out the areas to attack. If you want some statistical info to back this one, the Dolphins have averaged 7.1 yards per play and the Raiders have mustered just 4.7 YPP. Both teams grade in the upper half of the league in yards per play allowed, but Miami’s offense is vastly better. The one area the Dolphins struggle is forcing turnovers, as they only have nine takeaways to this point, but they’re scoring on 44% of their possessions. Imagine if they forced a turnover every now and then.
Dallas Cowboys over Carolina Panthers
This is not the greatest of spots for Dallas coming off of a huge blowout win with the Commanders on Thanksgiving on deck, but the Panthers have won one game this season. Dallas has scored on 46.3% of possessions, while Carolina has scored on just 29.2% of their possessions. The Cowboys also boast a top-five defense in terms of Sc% against, while Carolina is 26th.
This is just a mismatch in so many different ways. Bryce Young has struggled against defenses much worse than what Dallas brings to the table. As feisty as the Carolina defense can be with limited help from the other side of the ball, holding Dallas in check enough to win the game seems like a very tall order.
San Francisco 49ers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It seems like the bye week did wonders for the Niners, as they went to Duval County and looked like a Super Bowl contender once again. Jacksonville had been playing really well, but it looked like two teams playing two different games in San Fran’s 34-3 win. The 49ers had over 200 more yards of offense and the new-look defensive line harassed Trevor Lawrence all day with five sacks and four takeaways.
The Bucs did snap a four-game losing streak by beating the Titans, but there is a very substantial difference between the 49ers and Titans. Brock Purdy looked healthy. The Niners dropped 34 without a Christian McCaffrey TD. Deebo Samuel had an impact. After panicking for a few weeks, it seems as though we don’t need to be worried about Kyle Shanahan’s crew.
Washington Commanders over New York Giants
Now for a team that most you probably have handy in the Commanders. We’re at the point in the season where most of the elite teams or even the very good teams are simply not options, so finding weeks to be able to steal teams like Washington and sneak through are going to be very important.
Given what we’ve seen with Tommy DeVito and the Giants offense, the Commanders won’t need to hang a big number here to pick up a victory. DeVito is 29-of-47 for 261 yards and has been sacked 11 times in his two starts over the last two weeks. After starting 2-0, the Commanders have dropped six of eight, but this is about as good of a situation as it gets. The Giants were dealt a bad hand with the Daniel Jones injury, but they weren’t any good before that and it’s only gotten worse. Plus, there seems to be a lot of incentive to lose and try to get out of the Jones contract with the heir apparent in the first round.
NFL Survivor Pick for Week 11
Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans
Sometimes getting humbled can be a good thing. The Jaguars were riding high with a five-game winning streak and found out just how far away from being among the league’s elite that they are. The Titans are not among the league’s elite, so this is a good bounce back spot for the Jags. While the Titans may have a higher ceiling with Will Levis, this is still not a very good football team.
What the Titans really needed was to continue to have a strong defense. That has not been the case. Tennessee is 29th in EPA/play on defense. They rank 15th in Rush EPA defense, but the Jaguars offense goes through Lawrence, as they’ve really struggled to run the rock. That is a bad thing for Tennessee, who is 28th in Dropback EPA and 29th in Dropback Success Rate.
The Jaguars offense has been disappointing per the advanced metrics and the traditional ones, but their defense should carry them through here. They are fifth in percentage of opponents’ drives ending in points and are tied for the league lead in takeaways with 18. There is a better opportunity to take Jacksonville, but it happens on New Year’s Eve, so we might as well use them now on a week where a lot of the popular choices are likely unavailable.
