Week 7 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos (-2.5, 37) at New Orleans Saints

The Broncos (3-3) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Chargers 23-16 last week and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Saints (2-4) have lost four straight games and just got rolled by the Buccaneers 51-27, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs.

This line had an early opener of Saints -2.5 at home. However, since that time we’ve seen a heavy dose of Broncos support, steaming Denver up from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. Some books are even up to Broncos -3. A big reason for this move is the fact that Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to miss the game due to injury. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” and injury line movement on the Broncos. This movement is especially notable because the public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the action is balanced and there is no reason for the oddsmakers to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Denver.

The Broncos are only receiving 50% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of wiseguy action in Denver’s favor. Pros also seem to be targeting the Broncos on the moneyline (-150), as Denver is only receiving 43% of moneyline bets but a whopping 71% of moneyline dollars. Thursday Night Football favorites are 200-77 straight up (72%) with a 6% ROI since 2004, including 5-1 so far this season. They are 46-16 straight up (74%) since 2021.

Road favorites, like the Broncos here, are 20-9 ATS (69%) this season with a 30% ROI. Denver has a notable edge on defense, allowing only 16 PPG compared to New Orleans allowing 24.5 PPG. The Saints are giving up 395.8 yards per game, the most in the NFL. Land Clark, the lead ref, is 53-43 ATS (55%) to the road team, historically. The Broncos have additional value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Saints are dealing with a rash of injuries and will be without several starters, including QB Derek Carr, WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, LB Pete Werner and OL Cesar Ruiz. Rookie Spencer Rattler is expected to start under center in place of Carr. Denver may also enjoy a motivational edge, as former Saints’ head coach Sean Payton returns to the Superdome for the first time to face his former team.

In terms of the total, we haven’t seen much movement off the opener of 37.5. Some books have dipped down to 37 while others remain at 37.5 and are juiced to the under at -115. The under is receiving 35% of bets but 45% of dollars, sharp contrarian bet split. Primetime unders are 11-10 this season and 171-117 (59%) since 2019. When the total is less than 40, the under is 6-5 this season and 38-30 (56%) over the past two seasons.

Player Prop to Consider

Bo Nix over 194.5 passing yards (-110): Nix has gone over this number in four of his last five games. The Saints are allowing 262.2 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL. Only the Vikings, Ravens and Jaguars are allowing more yards through the air. The Saints have given up more than 194.5 passing yards to every opposing quarterback this season. New Orleans gave up 325 passing yards to Baker Mayfield last week, 331 passing yards to Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, 238 passing yards to Kirk Cousins in Week 4, 311 passing yards to Jalen Hurts in Week 3, 293 passing yards to Dak Prescott in Week 2 and 200 passing yards to Bryce Young in Week 1. This game will also be played inside a dome, which eliminates any weather issues and provides a fast track for the passing game offense.

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