Super Bowl Best Bet, Tuesday Recaps
Tuesday was mostly spent doing some chores around the Tuley’s Takes home office (including vacuuming out our pool after some recent inclement weather – though we didn’t have snow in our part of the Las Vegas valley) and following the Super Bowl line movement.
As we Tweeted out Tuesday afternoon, the Wynn was the last Vegas sportsbook at Eagles -2 as they dropped into line with the rest of the books at -1.5 while the Over/Under remained at a consensus 49.5 points with Circa Sports and Resorts World the only books to go up to 50.
If you’ve been a regular reader of my columns this season (or the prior 6 years in our digital magazine “Point Spread Weekly”), you know that Wednesday is when I give my weekly NFL “takes” on the full schedule. I was planning to wait until next week to post our official Super Bowl Best Bet since we’re more than 11 days until Super Sunday, but I figure there’s no time like the present.
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Besides, this is looking like it’s going to be the biggest betting game to this date in sports gambling history with such a great matchup, plus being the first Super Bowl in a U.S. state with legalized betting (Arizona) as well as being the first Super Bowl with legal betting in Ohio, Massachusetts and Kansas.
It’s also going to be the most over-analyzed game ever. I would rather go on record with my reasoning for my Super Bowl wagers or else I fear that if I wait until next week that it’ll sound like I’m copying other people’s analysis.
Frankly, there’s only so many different ways you can handicap this game. The people on favored (at least for now) Philadelphia are going to say the Eagles have the better defense and best all-around team at this point, plus they’ll point out the injuries on the Kansas City side. After the opening Super Bowl LVII line settled at Eagles -2.5 on Sunday night, I made my regular weekly appearance on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” and gave Chiefs +8.5/Over 43.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser) as my early Super Bowl Best Bet. We repeated that in our Monday and Tuesday columns as well as in the VSiN daily email updates and on the website. With the line coming down, we also want to lock in our teaser play in case the line moves any lower or the Chiefs get bet to favoritism. I’ll also list some prop bets that are in line with my prediction of a close game. We’ll add more of our reasons for these plays, plus add others, as the prop market settles down, but I’m listing them in case readers want to shop around early.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 49.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Tuley’s Take: Before Sunday’s NFC and AFC championship games, most sportsbooks with advance Super Bowl lines had this matchup at pick-’em or the Chiefs -1. I’ve also had the Chiefs power-rated a few points ahead of the Eagles all season, so even though I understand the reasons for the Eagles being bet to favoritism on Sunday night, I side with those oddsmakers that opened the Chiefs as the chalk.
Now, I’m picking the Chiefs to win the game (leaning toward a predicted score of Chiefs 27, Eagles 24), but I’m very respectful of the Eagles on both sides of the ball and see this as a coin-flip game that could go either way. That’s why I feel the Best Bet is to make a 2-team, 6-point teaser on Chiefs +7.5/Over 43.5 as I fully expect this to be a one-score game either way.
Kansas City coach Andy Reid has a well-earned reputation (dating back to when he coached Philadelphia) of winning off a bye week, so we’re counting on that as well as the two-week gap to help the Chiefs get healthier (note: this didn’t work two years ago when the Chiefs were dominated 31-9 by the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV after two weeks to prepare).
A lot is being made of the Eagles’ having a big edge on defense as they ranked No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game while the Chiefs ranked No. 11. The Eagles also allowed 20.2 points per game, but their supporters point out that since giving up 33 points to the Packers in Week 12, they’ve allowed an average of fewer than 16 points in their last 8 games and gave up just 7 points in each of their NFC playoff routs of the Giants and 49ers.
But these aren’t the 1985-86 Bears (who posted back-to-back playoff shutouts of the Giants and Rams). The Eagles’ defensive stats have received a lot of luck from the schedule makers and their playoff draw as they’ve faced a relatively weak schedule and weaker QBs down the stretch. Let’s look at the list: Titans with Ryan Tannehill, Giants with Daniel Jones, Bears with Justin Fields, Cowboys with Dak Prescott, Saints with Andy Dalton. Giants with Davis Webb, Giants again with Jones and 49ers with Brock Purdy/Josh Johnson/Christian McCaffrey.
Seriously, the only top offense they faced in that stretch with a healthy QB was the Cowboys in Week 16 and lost 40-34 while allowing 419 yards. They’re taking a big step up in class now as they face Patrick Mahomes and the league’s No. 1 offense
As I said above, I’ve made my biggest bet on the teaser as I expect a close game. I’m going with the Over 43.5 as the second leg of the teaser as we also expect a shootout. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ No. 3 offense will also have their share of success. It also helps with the indoor fast track in Glendale, Ariz, plus the long TV timeouts to get in all those Super Bowl commercials also helps the offenses set up big plays.
Best Bet: Chiefs +7.5/Over 43.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser), plus Chiefs +1.5 and +105 on the moneyline.
Prop bets tied to my prediction of close game
Game tied after 0-0
Largest lead Under 14.5 points
Double result: halftime tie/Chiefs win (also halftime tie/Eagles win, just in case)
This is the abbreviated version of our regular daily recap of Tuesday’s action (we lost our Best Bet on the Bulls +3 vs. the Clippers, falling short for 2nd straight day as our team rallied to get inside the number late but wasn’t able to hold on for the cover as the Bulls lost 108-103) and looking for a Best Bet for Wednesday.
Tuesday Recaps
NBA: Favorites went 3-2 SU on Tuesday, but underdogs led 3-2 ATS with the Hornets (+11) covering in 124-115 loss at the Buck. The upsets were by the Heat (+3.5 in 100-97 at Cavaliers) and Lakers (+2 in 129-123 win at Knicks). Road teams led 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. Unders led 3-2.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 486-271 SU with 11 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 383-355-19 ATS (51.9%). Home teams lead 459-309 SU and 393-358-18 ATS (52.3%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead 390-365-13 (51.7%).
CBB: Nevada (my middle daughter’s school) upset No. 22 San Diego St. 75-66 late Tuesday as 3-point home dog. No. 8 Kansas (8.5-point home fave) beat No. 7 Kansas St. 90-78 and covered. Maryland (3-point home fave) beat No. 21 Indiana 66-55, but it wasn’t an upset.
NHL: Faves swept 3-0 Tuesday with Hurricanes (-205 vs. Kings), Senators (-195 at Canadients) and Capitals (-210 at Blue Jackets) all winning but all failing on -1.5 puck line. Road teams 2-1. Overs swept 3-0. On the season, faves lead 464-296 with 20 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 406-361 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs retook lead at 367-365-34.
Wednesday NBA Best Bet
Magic +8.5 at 76ers: First of all, this is a full-fledged anti-swagger game as the 76ers just had a 7-game winning streak snapped in a 119-109 loss Monday vs. the Magic. Yes, the first proof we need that the Magic can cover this number is they just beat the 76ers as 10-point road underdogs less than 48 hours ago after trailing by 21 points in the first quarter and then dominating the rest of the way. The Magic were led, per usual, by rookie sensation Paolo Banchero’s 29 points. But this was nothing news as the Magic is 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) this season as underdogs of 7.5 or more points.
