Tuley’s NFL Picks – NFC Over/Under Season Win Totals:

Yesterday, I shared my picks for AFC team win totals. Today, we conclude with the NFC win total best bets, with the start of the regular season less than a week away.

During VSiN 1.0, Brent Musburger told me he loved the way I attacked the season win totals with my patent-pending W/L/T and MLE approach.

 

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What are those, newbies have been asking?

W/L/T (Win/Loss/Tie): When most people handicap Over/Under win totals, they look at a team’s schedule and go, “that’s a win,” “that’s a loss,” “they’ll split those games,” etc. Well, this is sort of like that, but it is the number of times each team is favored (“W”) or an underdog (“L”) or listed at pick-’em (“T”) on the DraftKings Week 1-18 lines.

MLE (Money Line Estimate): This is derived from the DraftKings Week 1-18 lines. Since each game isn’t an automatic Win or Loss, we convert the projected point spread to a money line and the percentage of winning each game outright. For instance, a pick’em would be .500 for both teams. We give a 7-point favorite 0.752 of a win instead of 1.0. Conversely, a 7-point underdog would get 0.248. A 3-point favorite is worth 0.594, while a 3-point dog is .406. We do this for every game. We add all the percentages to estimate the total number of expected wins. Note other books might have slightly different lines (though most have been bet into place after several months), but DK is a pretty good representative of the overall market.

My analysis will be bereft of any mention of players/coaches (OK, I did deviate from that rule in the AFC) but only once), rivalry games, tough travel of scheduling spots or games with added motivation, or “look-ahead” games, etc. This is because I believe that all that has been baked into the lines by the oddsmakers, the bookmakers, the wise guys and the general betting public. Everyone has had their input, and these lines are solid heading into the regular season.

We’ll go through each team’s season win totals, using the numbers at Circa Sports (which offers a “market” number and then alternate totals that are one game higher and one game lower with the adjusted money lines attached). I’ll give my Tuley’s Take on the best way to bet each team and denote my Best Bets with an asterisk(*) of ones I’ve already made or still shopping around.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
2024 O/U season win total: 10.5 (Over +155/Under -180)
W/L/T: 14-3; MLE: 9.782
As stated above (and in AFC takes), I’m supposed to be objective with these and let the numbers speak for themselves; however, I do have a bias here as I made the Cowboys a value play to win the Super Bowl at 20-1 here at VSiN.com right after the last Super Bowl (currently +1750 at Circa). A lot of people are down on them and their Over/Under season win total has been bet down to 10.5 with the juice up to -180. Our MLE comes to 9.782 wins, but their W/T/E is 14-3, and they’re projected to be underdogs only three times. The “low” total at Circa is 9.5 with the Over juiced to -160, so that tells me they probably get to 10 wins (and I think people still think in terms of a 16-game schedule and how hard it was to get to 11 wins, but it’s easier with that 17th game…at least we hope!). Either way, the betting value is there.
Tuley’s Take: Over 10.5 +155* 

Philadelphia Eagles
2024 O/U season win total: 10.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
W/L/T: 13-4; MLE: 10.104
We have mixed signals here with the M/L/E coming in Under at 10.104, but the W/L/T at 13-4. Because I’m still high on the Cowboys, I lean to the Under here, but not confident enough (with that W/L/T record) to bet it even at the plus-money. Your call.
Tuley’s Take: Under 10.5 +120

Washington Commanders
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
W/L/T: 3-14; MLE: 6.876
The Commanders’ MLE comes in at 6.876, which is higher than their win total of 6.5, but not enough to get to the seven wins needed to cash the Over. They are projected to be favored in only three games (-2.5 at Giants in Week 2, -3 vs. Carolina in Week 7 and -1.5 vs. Tennessee in Week 12), so I’m solidly on the Under at the cheap price of -115, though I’m technically breaking my “dog-or-pass” rule.
Tuley’s Take: Under 6.5 -115*

New York Giants
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over +115/Under -135)
W/L/T: 3-14; MLE: 6.513
The MLE of 6.513 is almost spot-on with the 6.5 win total, but just like the Commanders, the Giants’s W/L/T is at 3-14 as they’re only projected to be favored three times (-1.5 vs. those same Commanders in Week 9, -1 at Carolina in Week 10 and -1 vs. New Orleans in Week 14). That makes me lean to the Under, but not gonna lay -135.
Tuley’s Take: Under 6.5 -135 

NFC North

Detroit Lions
2024 O/U season win total: 10.5 (Over -130/Under +110)
W/L/T: 13-4; MLE: 10.508
Detroit’s MLE is right on their win total at 10.508, but they’re favored in 13 games, so the lean is to the Over. Of course, the oddsmakers and the market are feeling the same way, so as it often the case there’s a minus-sign on the conventional wisdom play.
Tuley’s Take: Over 10.5 -130 (for grading purposes only, no bet) 

Green Bay Packers
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -150/Under +130)
W/L/T: 13-4; MLE: 9.492
Just like the Lions above, the Packers’ MLE is just about spot-on at 9.492 and their W/L/T is also 13-4. But even though the win total is a full game lower, it’s easier to pass on this Over with the juice at -150.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 -150 

Chicago Bears
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over -165/Under +145)
W/L/T: 9-8; MLE: 8.741
This is a case where the MLE (8.71) and W/L/T (9-8) are both in slight agreement, so it’s certainly no surprise that the Over is the favored side, but kinda shocked, shocked (“Casablanca” movie reference for those who know) that it’s juiced so high at -165. Hard pass for yours truly, even though I grew up a Bear fan in the Chicago suburbs in the 1970s/1980s (though many will say I still haven’t “grown up”).
Tuley’s Take: Over 8.5 -165

Minnesota Vikings
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
W/L/T: 4-13; MLE: 6.947
Their MLE is 6.947, but not quite to 7 to beat us on the Under while their W/L/T is just 4-13. The Vikings’ penchant for winning one-score games that led to a 13-5 record in 2022 regressed to the mean last year as they were 4-9 in such games to finish 7-10. We see them falling farther behind to the basement of the NFC North, so the Under is the play. 
Tuley’s Take: Under 6.5 +120* 

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
W/L/T: 12-5; MLE: 9.369
The Atlanta organization has made a lot of good moves to make itself competitive this season, and the oddsmakers and the market have taken notice with the Over/Under set at 9.5 and juiced to -140. The MLE is actually short at 9.369, which would normally have me going contrarian and taking the Under (feel free is that’s how you handicap the Falcons’ season), but the 12-5 W/L/T in a weak division has me passing as the Over looks like the right side.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 -140 (again, just for grading purposes) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024 O/U season win total: 7.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
W/L/T: 8-9; MLE: 8.098
In all my years of doing this, I can’t recall a team looking more like an 8-9 team as Tampa Bay’s W/L/T is 8-9 and the MLE is 8.098. Again, no surprise that the Bucs’ total of 7.5 is juiced to -140 as it’s clearly the most likely outcome. If I wasn’t so allergic to chalk, I would probably be willing to lay the -140, but the possibility of injuries keeping them from reaching the number has me passing here as well.
Tuley’s Take: Over 7.5 -140 

New Orleans Saints
2024 O/U season win total: 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
W/L/T: 6-11; MLE: 7.901
This is pretty close to pick ’em at 7.5 wins, which makes sense as the Saints’ MLE comes in at 7.901 (Over the total but not quite to the eight wins needed to cash), but they’re only projected to be favored in six games, which is a full game Under the number. Lean to Under, but pass.
Tuley’s Take: Under 7.5 -115 

Carolina Panthers
2024 O/U season win total: 5.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
W/L/T: 0-17; MLE: 6.065
We have a little contradiction here as Carolina’s MLE is at 6.065, which would cash the Over. However, I can’t keep staring at that 0-17 record on the W/L/T as the Panthers are projected not to be favored in a single game. Granted, if they were to pull an early upset or two to get in the win column, some of their later games could flip to favoritism (they’re currently +1 in home games vs. the Saints in Week 9, Giants in Week 10 and Cardinals in Week 15), but we still don’t see them getting to six wins.
Tuley’s Take: Under 5.5 +105* 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers
2024 O/U season win total: 11.5 (Over +130/Under -150)
W/L/T: 17-0; MLE: 11.450
This is a tough one. The 49ers are tied for the highest Over/Under in the league at 11.5 and their MLE falls just short at 11.450. However, they’re projected to be favored in every single game and only as low as 1-point chalk in two games (-1 at home vs. Chiefs in Week 7 and -1 at the Dolphins in Week 17). That’s tempting to take the +130 on the Over 11.5, but still gonna pass.
Tuley’s Take: Over 11.5 +130 

Seattle Seahawks
2024 O/U season win total: 7.5 (Over -170/Under +150)
W/L/T: 5-12; MLE: 7.625
Seattle’s MLE comes in right around the total of 7.5 (in fact, just above), but the W/L/T has them projected to be favored in just five games and none by more than a field goal after being 6-point chalk vs. Denver in the home opener. I don’t see them getting to eight wins even though they’ve won nine each of the past two seasons, so let’s take the plus-money on the Under in a relatively tough division.
Tuley’s Take: Under 7.5 +150* 

Los Angeles Rams
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over +130/Under -150)
W/L/T: 11-6; MLE: 8.924
The Rams have been getting a lot of love in the marketplace, so much so that the “high” total of 9.5 at Circa is actually the more competitively priced (the “middle” total is 8.5 with the Over at -180 and the Under at +155). The Rams’ MLE comes under that at 8.924, but we like the Over due to the W/T/T of 11-6 as well as the plus-price.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 +130*

Arizona Cardinals
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over -160/Under +140)
W/L/T: 5-12; MLE: 7.022
The Cardinals’ MLE is 7.022, which gets to the number needed to go Over their total of 6.5; however, their W/L/T is only 5-12 as they’re only projected to be favored in just five games and only once by more than a field goal (-3.5 at home vs. New England in Week 15). And the juice is -160 on the Over. No thanks.
Tuley’s Take: Over 6.5 -160 (obviously for grading purposes only) 

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