Super Bowl LVIII Props

As I wrote in this space last Thursday, I still can’t believe the Super Bowl is here in Las Vegas. Of course, I’ve always preached that we shouldn’t dwell on such trivial matters as our main purpose here is to find winning bets no matter where the game is played, who’s dating who, whose contract is up, or what coaches might be moving on, etc.

In last week’s column, I also gave my Best Bets on the side and total (plus the preferred teaser for those playing that way), promising to update this week in case any of the lines had moved. Well, here we are a week later, and the 49ers are still at -2 at the vast majority of sportsbooks here in Vegas as well as nationwide, and the Over/Under also hasn’t budged at a consensus of 47.5 points.

 

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We’ll repeat our reasoning for our plays on the Chiefs +2 and the Under 47.5, but what we’ve always done in this column during Super Bowl Week is to give our Top Prop Plays, as we all know how popular those bets have become. Personally, I’ll end up having around 50% of my handle on the straight bets and the other half on a variety of prop bets. And as I said on The Greg Peterson Experience on VSiN on Monday night, I’ll continue to monitor the numbers on the props up until game time on Sunday. If I find a lot of bets being steamed beyond reason, I might actually have much more on the props.

We’ll see how it goes.

So, without further ado, let’s go through the side and total, and then I’ll break down my recommended props bets into ones that are tied to my handicap of the game and then also give other fun Super Bowl props that have been good to us over the years or that I just like while perusing all the prop sheets around town.

San Francisco (-2, 47.5) vs. Kansas City

On Championship Sunday, as the 49ers were holding off the Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship Games to earn the right to face the Chiefs, DraftKings and its nationwide network of books installed the 49ers as 2-point favorites with an Over/Under of 48 points. Here in Vegas, the opening line ranged from 49ers -1.5 at BetMGM to -2.5 at Circa Sports, so basically, it was a consensus -2. Early betting showed on the Chiefs as the line dipped to -1 at some books and looked like it would go to pick ’em, but then support showed for the short fave, and it’s climbed back to the consensus -2 as of early Thursday night.

The Over/Under also ranged to 47.5 and 48.5 but has settled at 47.5 at every book in Vegas as of this writing.

Regular readers of this column know me as a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and that worked out perfectly in the conference title games as we went 2-0 ATS here and on our appearance on Brent Musburger’s Countdown to Kickoff show on VSiN last Sunday with the Lions covering as 7-point road underdogs in their aforementioned 3-point loss to the 49ers after the Chiefs had pulled an outright upset of the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC title game as 2.5-point road dogs.

We’re not changing our approach here as we’ll take the 2 points with the Chiefs as well as +115 on the moneyline (some books only offering +105 to +110, so shop around).

Just like with the Lions, we concede that the 49ers are the better team on paper – ranking No. 2 in scoring offense at 28.9 points per game and No. 3 in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game – but as we’ve always said: “the game isn’t played on paper.”

The defending champion Chiefs have the edge in playoff experience, plus even though San Fran QB Brock Purdy has a stronger supporting case, we’ll still take Patrick Mahomes with the game on the line. Plus, we all know how KC coach Andy Reid is with extra time to prepare (regular season bye weeks or the postseason).

And this isn’t even counting a bigger coaching edge for Reid when you consider San Fran coach Kyle Shanahan has been at least partly to blame (I’m trying to be kind here) for two Super Bowl collapses as he was the offensive coordinator in the Falcons’ infamous 28-3 blown lean to the Patriots in Super Bowl LI and then as the 49ers’ head coach when these two teams met just four years ago in Super Bowl LIV after the 49ers led 20-10 before the Chiefs outscoring them 21-0 in the final 6:13 for a 31-20 victory.

As I also said on Uncle Brent’s show, the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been as consistent all season – ranking just No. 15 at a mere 22.1 points per game – but the thing most people overlook is that the Chiefs’ defense is No. 2 in scoring defense at just 16.8 points per game.
We expect this to be a close, back-and-forth game with the defenses stepping up, so we also like Under 47.5 points. I’m not usually a big fan of teasing totals in NFL games, especially with the Under, as I hate when I end up having to cheer against my team from scoring more – but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of doing a 2-team, 6-point teaser with Chiefs +8.5 and Under 53.5.

Props Tied to My Handicapping of Super Bowl LVIII

Game tied after 0-0 (following PATs) -120
In the recent era with Super Bowl points spreads relatively close to pick ’em, we love this prop as we just need to get tied during the whole game. After missing two years in a row, we cashed it last year when the Chiefs and Eagles traded TDs on their opening drives for a tie at 7-7. Before the two-year mini-drought, we cashed this bet four straight Super Bowls, and it’s 6-3 overall in the last nine years. It can happen as early as 3-3 in the 2019 game between the Patriots and Rams or as late as 28-28 in 2017 when the Patriots famously rallied to catch up with the Falcons with 57 seconds left in regulation.

The 49ers and Chiefs are pretty evenly matched as the low point spread indicates (and some books looked like they could be moving toward pick-’em), so we expect this to be a close, back-and-forth game with both teams fully capable of matching scores at some point.

Largest lead Under 14.5 points -130
This is another prop tied to our prediction of a close, back-and-forth game. Since joining VSiN, I’ve gone 5-1 with this prop (and 7-2 the last nine years, with the only losses being the Buccaneers’ 31-9 rout of the Chiefs three years ago and the Falcons’ infamous 28-3 lead vs. the Patriots seven years ago). Again, we’re counting on both offenses to be able to rally if falling behind by two scores. We’re not crazy about the increased juice, but we’re relieved as we feared that oddsmakers might lower the number to 13.5 (or increase the juice further) with all the recent success and the spread so close to pick ’em.

Halftime Tie/49ers Win 16-1 and Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win 20-1: 
This is a bet on a tie at halftime, again based on our prediction of this being a close, back-and-forth Super Bowl. Since we don’t see “Will the game be tied at halftime?” prop offered anywhere, we play this “Double Result” at the Westgate SuperBook and bet both the “Halftime Tie/49ers Win” at 16-1 and “Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win” at 20-1 options (a little higher than recent years, which is nice as we see it even more likely). If the game is tied at intermission, we know we will end up with a net profit of +750 if the 49ers win or +950 if the Chiefs win. This has been a long-term profitable play, as we cashed four years ago when the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl LIV was tied at 10-10 and the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX that was tied 14-14, and just missed a couple of other times, so always worth a shot, especially in games line under a field goal.

Those are my three main props tied to how I see the game playing out, and they mesh very well with my side/total/teaser plays. Regular readers will remember that we also cashed with the Chiefs in last February’s Super Bowl and also cashed with “Score Tied after 0-0” and “Largest Lead Under 14.5.” We did lose the “Halftime Tie” bets, but again, with those higher odds, we don’t expect/need to hit it every year (and trust most followers will wager less on those higher payouts, so we trust those didn’t cut too much into anyone’s overall winnings if following along).

Here are some other props to consider if you agree with the Chiefs/Under narrative (these also tie in with my predicted final score of Chiefs 23, 49ers 20 in the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide):

Chiefs First Half +1.5 -115 (this also cashes if tied at halftime like we’re cheering for)
First Half Under 23.5 -110
49ers Under 24.5 points -120
Chiefs Under 23.5 points -110 (barely, but still believe it’s the more likely to cash)
Isiah Pacheco 30-1 to win Super Bowl MVP: I also gave this out in the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide. It’s likely that Patrick Mahomes will win MVP if the Chiefs win the game, as voters tend to lean that way, but there are expectations, and hopefully, Pacheco will make some big plays to put himself at the forefront in the voters’ minds. The 49ers have been vulnerable vs. the run, and hopefully, KC coach Andy Reid and his staff try to exploit that and take some pressure off Mahomes (and his iffy receiving corps). We know a lot of people are also citing the weak WRs as a reason to take a shot on Travis Kelce, but we’re hoping it’s Pacheco who gets some added targets in addition to his rushing attempts and nose for the goal line. Pacheco is definitely worth a shot, though certainly shop around as I’ve seen him as low as 20-1 (was still 27-1 at Circa Sports in Nevada as of Wednesday afternoon).

Fun Prop Bets Independent of My Handicapping (more or less)

First TD scored by Patrick Mahomes (16-1) or Brock Purdy (20-1)
That isn’t one bet but actually separate bets on each QB individually. We know they’re more likely to throw a TD pass to someone else, but we’ve seen over the years in big games that QBs will often take matters into their own hands near the goal line, so there’s value here (note: the Mahomes wager could be seen as a mini-hedge of my Pacheco MVP flier as that would be less likely if Mahomes scores first TD, so it’s a little bit of insurance in case that happens). Purdy is just a bonus.

Shortest TD Under 1.5 -145
We used to get a nice, juicy plus price on this each year, but this has cashed for us nine of the last 10 years, and the oddsmakers have slowly made it a favorite. But it’s still worth playing as -145 is still cheap considering how often it comes in (plus we’re playing with house money as I’ve been touting this prop every year I’ve been here at VSiN and ESPN.com before that). This can cash multiple ways: organically with a team moving the ball to the 1-yard line and punching it in or having a defensive pass interference call in the end zone place the ball at the 1-yard line. Note: it’s much rarer, but it also would cash if an offensive player falls on a fumble in the end zone for a 0-yard fumble recovery or if a defensive player were to score on a fumble recovery or interception in the opposing team’s end zone for a 0-yard score.

No score in the last 3.5 minutes of the game +160
The “Yes” is a -180 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook and certainly more likely, but not THAT much more likely. I could see either team having the lead and being able to run out the last 5 minutes (or at least the 3.5) of game time to secure the win without needing to kick a field goal to even give the other team a final possession.  

Good luck to us on these plays and your own wagers (or with Super Bowl squares or however else you like to have action on the Big Game).

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