Tuley’s Takes – Super Bowl LIX Props:

We love Super Bowl props here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and we know you do, too). In my more than a quarter century covering the sports betting beat here in Las Vegas, I’ve written a dozen times and talked on countless shows about how SB prop betting really started in 1986 when the books here made the Chicago Bears’ William “Refrigerator” Perry 20-1 to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XX against the New England Patriots. In fact, my VSiN colleague Gill Alexander told the same story the other day, and I’m sure I’ve missed some others.

Of course, the Fridge barreled into the end zone in the third quarter for the final TD of the Bears’ 46-10 rout to make the books a big loser on the prop but huge winners long-term as the nationwide publicity kick-started the prop boom, leading to what we see today. Nearly every play determines or contributes to some prop bet (and gets cheered and booed accordingly).

 

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The danger is that these bets are so fun, and there are so many, that you can pick the winner and still wind up losing money if you’re not careful. That’s why I always start with these “prop bets tied to my side/total analysis” so we can maximize profits if we handicap the game correctly. I’ll return with another “Tuley’s Takes” column next week with props bets independent of how I expect the game to play out – but they’re not just fun bets; we think they have betting value on their own.

Here’s my column from Wednesday, where I gave out my main Super Bowl “Best Bet” on a 2-team-6-point with Eagles +7.5/Under 55.5.

Here are my Super Bowl props:

Game tied after 0-0 (following PATs) -120: In the recent era with Super Bowl point spreads relatively close to pick ’em, I love this prop, as we just need to get tied during the whole game. It’s cashed the last two years in the Chiefs’ back-to-back victories, including these two teams trading TDs on their opening drives two years ago and then getting tied 16-16 in the fourth quarter last year against the 49ers (and then again at 19-19 as the game went to overtime). Before this two-year streak, it lost twice in a row, but before that we cashed four straight Super Bowls and this trend is 8-3 over the last 11 years (so we don’t mind laying the -120)!

It can happen as early as 3-3 in the 2019 game between the Patriots and Rams, or as late as 28-28 in 2017 when the Patriots famously rallied to catch up with the Falcons with 57 seconds left in regulation.

The Chiefs and Eagles are again evenly matched (my earlier column made the argument that the Eagles could be favored) as the low point spread indicates, so we expect this to be a close, back-and-forth game with both teams fully capable of matching scores at some point.

Largest lead Under 14.5 points -140: This is another prop tied to our prediction of a close, back-and-forth game. Since joining VSiN, I’ve gone 6-1 with this prop (and 8-2 the last 10 year, with the only losses being the Buccaneers’ 31-9 rout of the Chiefs four years ago and the Falcons’ infamous 28-3 lead vs. the Patriots eight years ago).

Again, we’re counting on both offenses to be able to rally if falling behind by two scores. I’m not crazy about the increased juice, but I’m actually relieved as I feared that oddsmakers might lower the number to 13.5 (or increase the juice further) with all the recent success, along with the spread so close to pick’em.

Halftime Tie/Eagles Win 16/1 and Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win 16/1: This is basically a bet on there being a tie at halftime, again based around our prediction of this being a close, back-and-forth Super Bowl. Since we don’t see “Will the game be tied at halftime?” prop offered anywhere, we play this “Double Result” and take both the “Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win” at 16-1 and “Halftime Tie/Eagles Win” at 16-1.

If the game is tied at intermission, we know we’re going to end up with a net profit of +750 no matter who wins. This has been a long-term profitable play the years we’ve played it as we cashed five years ago when the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl LIV was tied at 10-10 at the half and the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX that was tied 14-14. We just missed a couple of other times, so it’s always worth a shot in games lined under a field goal that are expected to be close.

Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP +120: I usually include Super Bowl MVP bets in my other props, but I included Mahomes winning the MVP in my prediction in the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide with the Chiefs winning 23-20 even though I’m betting the Eagles in my teaser as they just have to not lose by more than a TD. I can’t go against the Chiefs’ insane ability to pull out close games, and the MVP is almost always the QB on the winning team, so +120 is value compared to the pregame money line of Chiefs -120 to -130.

“Any other score” for first score +140: The first score is usually a touchdown, which is why TD is priced at -160. However, since we expect the defenses to step up early (and this does actually correlate with our previous picks), we’ll take “any other score” (meaning a field goal or safety) at the juicy price of +140. Note: this cashed last year when Jake Moody put the 49ers up 3-0 on the Chiefs with 14:48 left in the second quarter.

First TD by Travis Kelce +800: This is always the most bet prop as everyone likes to cheer for who scores the first touchdown – and especially since it comes with a juicy payoff (I’ve cashed this several times over the years with my favorite being when the Bears’ Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the Colts in Super Bowl XLI at 50-1!). Saquon Barkley is the +450 favorite, with Jalen Hurts at +600. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, BUT if there were a script, the rigged result would be for Kelce to score first and the camera to cut to Taylor Swift. I would hate to see it happen, but at least I would make a little money as a result. Note: “Kelce anytime TD” is +125 if you want to go the more conservative route. My longshot pick for first TD is Patrick Mahomes at 20-1, as he has been taking matters into his own hands more lately.

Shortest TD Under 1.5 -190: We used to get a nice, juicy plus price on this each year, but then we cashed on it in eight of nine years, so oddsmakers have been gradually raising the juice. But we didn’t mind – until it didn’t cash last year at -160. Still, it’s been a great play over the years. I actually think it has an even better chance to cash this year with the Eagles’ penchant for using the “tush push” with QB Jalen Hurts. As I’ve written over the years, this can cash in multiple ways: organically with a team moving the ball to the 1-yard line and punching it in or having a defensive pass interference call in the end zone place the ball at the 1-yard line. Note: it’s much more rare, but it also would cash if an offensive player falls on a fumble in the end zone for a 0-yard fumble recovery or if a defensive player were to score on a fumble recovery or interception in the opposing team’s end zone for a 0-yard score.

Will there be a 2-point conversion attempt, Yes +110: The days of NFL coaches being afraid of going for 2-point conversions (or on fourth down for that matter) are over, and we don’t even need for one to be successful to cash this bet, just an attempt (FYI: a successful 2-point conversion pays +240).

Number of different players to throw a pass, Over 2.5 +170: These teams are not above trick plays. I’m sure KC’s Andy Reid has something special drawn up – and we cashed this with the “Philly Special” against New England in Super Bowl LII. Two years ago, when these teams met, it was only Mahomes and Hurts throwing passing, but last year, we cashed when Jauan Jennings of the 49ers threw a pass to Christian McCaffrey for the first TD.

For more Super Bowl analysis, visit the Super Bowl Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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