Saturday – aka Super Bowl Eve – was another exciting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we continued to track the side and total and shop around for the best prop prices. We’ve also been enjoying the 56 hours of programming on VSiN.com (and looking forward to Uncle Brent’s interview with Billy Walters at noon ET/9 a.m. PT on Sunday) as well as the rest of our coverage.
Personally, I lost my first bet of the day with the Blue Jackets-Canadiens First-Period Over 1.5 -145. The Canadiens scored just 1:16 into the game, so I thought I had an easy winner, but then neither team scored for the next 18:44. That was a bummer. Things didn’t get better as I blanked with my horse racing picks on Saturday in my other column (“Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes”).
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It was looking worse for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as the Blazers – my next best bet of the day at %plussign% 4.5 at the Knicks – fell behind by 23 points in the third quarter. I went back to the ponies and didn’t get to see the Blazers not only rally to cover the spread but ended up winning outright and pulling away to win 112-103. I was feeling like I was playing with found money and was giving it right back to the books when the Hornets – my next best bet of the day at %plussign% 7.5 vs. the Grizzlies – fell behind by a whopping 35 points. Again, I thought I was doomed, but again the Hornets rallied to actually get within 4 points and held on to cover the %plussign% 7.5 in a 125-118 loss.
I was incredibly lucky to pull out a profitable day overall after all of that. I’ll have to remember this the next time I suffer a bad beat.
Anyway, let’s wrap up the rest of Saturday’s betting action, including our daily update of the Super Bowl side and total. I’ve already posted my Super Bowl best bet on the Bengals %plussign% 4.5 in these daily columns as well as in Point Spread Weekly and the VSiN Staff Best Bets file on VSiN.com, but we’ll list them all here again.
Saturday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 7-4 SU on Saturday (after being 43-6 SU the previous 7 days) but dogs led 7-4 ATS (after faves dominated at 38-9-2 ATS, 80.9 percent, the prior 7 days). The upsets were by the Blazers (%plussign% 4.5 vs. Knicks), Spurs (%plussign% 6.5 at Pelicans), Nuggets (%plussign% 5.5 at Raptors) and Clippers (%plussign% 7 at Mavericks). The Lakers (%plussign% 6.5) covered in 117-115 loss at Warriors, Nets (%plussign% 11.5) covered in 115-111 loss at Heat and Thunder (%plussign% 10) covered in 106-101 loss at Bulls to account for dogs going 7-4 ATS for their first winning ATS day since a week ago Friday.
CBB: No. 21 USC upset No. 12 UCLA 67-64 late Saturday as 4-point home dogs and %plussign% 160 on the money line. Also late Saturday, No. 2 Gonzaga beat No. Saint Mary's 74-58 and pushed on the consensus line of -16. Earlier, No. 10 Baylor beat No. 20 Texas 80-63 and covered as 5.5-point home favorite.
NHL: Faves went 5-3 with the upsets by the Canucks (%plussign% 175 in 3-2 win vs. Maple Leafs), Jets (%plussign% 165 in 5-2 win at Predators) and Wild (-105 in 3-2 win vs. Hurricanes). Unders went 4-3-1 with the push in the Blackhawks-Blues game that had a total of 6 goals.
Super Bowl odds update (10 p.m. PT Saturday): Rams are still a consensus -4 in Las Vegas, but Circa Sports and South Point have joined Wynn back up at Rams -4.5. The lowest line in town is Rams -4 -105 at Westgate SuperBook. The Over/Under is still mostly 48.5 with the best Under price of Under 49 %plussign% 100 (EVEN) at Treasure Island.
Sunday’s Takes
Bengals %plussign% 4.5. We recommended grabbing the 4.5 the other day in case the line dropped, which it did go down to 4 at most books, so I hope everyone with me on the Bengals grabbed it. Now, a few books have gone back up to 4.5 as I mentioned above, so hopefully those that missed it can grab it again. If you’re looking for my thoughts on the Over/Under and the huge menus of Super Bowl props, check out my regular “Tuley’s Takes column in Point Spread Weekly” or the VSiN.com Best Bets file.
And here’s my list of favorite Super Bowl bets:
Bengals %plussign% 4.5
Lean Under 48.5 (prefer 1st Half Under 23.5)
Bengals Score 1st (%plussign% 110)
Score Tied After 0-0 (-110)
Largest Lead Under 14.5 (%plussign% 100)
1st TD Stafford 30-1; 1st Rams TD Stafford 16-1
1st TD Burrow 30-1; 1st Bengals TD Burrow 14-1
Double Result: Halftime Tie/Rams win 12-1
Double Result: Halftime Tie/Bengals win 16-1
Rams Team Total Under 26.5 (%plussign% 110)
Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards (-150)
Longest TD Over 41.5 Yards (-110)
Total Sacks Under 5 (%plussign% 120)
Cam Akers Rushing Yards Under 64.5 (-110)
Cooper Kupp Under 8.5 Receptions (-110)
Cooper Kupp Under 108.5 Yards (-110)
Cooper Kupp no TD (%plussign% 140)
# of Different Players Throw Pass Over 2.5 (%plussign% 150)
MVP Burrow %plussign% 250
Good luck today (and every day!).
