VSiN Analytics NFL Preseason Report for Week 1

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics NFL Preseason Report for Week 1

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of WEEK 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.

 

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Note: lines cited were those as of Tuesday 8/8 5 PM ET via DraftKings

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NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts

The following systems were from the article NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023 posted the day prior to the NFL Hall-of-Fame Game (more systems available in weeks 2 and 3)

1. Line ranges have proven very telling

Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 11 teams that have been favored by more than seven points. Eight of these heavy favorites won their games outright, however, they were 3-8 ATS. At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 130-100-4 ATS for 56.5%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs THRIVE. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 149-102 ATS, good for 59.4%!

System Match(es):

Favorites more than -7: NONE

Favorites -3.5 to -7 (System Matches): SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, DENVER, CHICAGO, INDIANAPOLIS, CAROLINA, JACKSONVILLE, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO

Underdogs +1 to +3 (System Matches): NEW ENGLAND, NY GIANTS, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, NEW ORLEANS

2. Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games

In looking at the home/road results of the last 11 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS, including last year, the most profitable at 28-17 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 343-307 ATS edge, good for 52.8%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 69-35 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.3%!

System Match:

Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

3. “37” is a magic number for totals

Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone OVER at a rate of 58.4% (269-192), while those 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 56.9% clip (512-387). Take away the regular occurrence of UNDERS in the HOF game, and that first trend is even greater.

System Match(es):

Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): MIN-SEA, GB-CIN, NYG-DET, ATL-MIA, PHI-BAL, LAC-LAR, SF-LVR

Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): HOU-NE, PIT-TB, WAS-CLE, DEN-ARI, IND-BUF, TEN-CHI, NYJ-CAR, JAX-DAL, KC-NO

 

This week’s NFL Preseason Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com.

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. BUFFALO (+4.6) 2. MIAMI (+2.8) 3. ARIZONA (+1.9) 4. DALLAS (+1.8) 5(tie). CINCINNATI (+1.1) and LAS VEGAS (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches (only two this week): 1. BALTIMORE (-1.3) 2. LA RAMS (-1.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. ARIZONA (+5.5) 2. NEW ENGLAND (+4.5) 3. BUFFALO (+4.0) 4. WASHINGTON (+1.5) 5. MINNESOTA (+1.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY (-2.2) 2. BALTIMORE (-1.5) 3. NEW ORLEANS (-1.1) 4. ATLANTA (-1.0) 5. JACKSONVILLE (-0.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. MIN-SEA OVER 35 (+1.1) 2. WAS-CLE OVER 38.5 (+1.0) 3. IND-BUF OVER 39 (+0.9) 4. LAC-LAR OVER 33.5 (+0.7) 5. NYG-DET OVER 36.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. TEN-CHI UNDER 37.5 (-2.4) 2. PIT-TB UNDER 39.5 (-2.0) 3. HOU-NE UNDER 38.5 (-1.8) 4. KC-NO UNDER 37.5 (-1.5) 5. DEN-ARI UNDER 37.5 (-0.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. BUFFALO (+5.7) 2. NEW ENGLAND (+4.0) 3. WASHINGTON (+3.6) 4. LAS VEGAS (+3.1) 5. PHILADELPHIA (+1.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches: 1. GREEN BAY (-2.0) 2. LA RAMS (-1.3) 3(tie). TAMPA BAY (-1.1) and CHICAGO (-1.1) 5(tie). SEATTLE (-0.8) and JACKSONVILLE (-0.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Rating Matches (only three this week): 1(tie): MIN-SEA OVER 35 (+0.2) and DEN-ARI OVER 37.5 (+0.2) and LAC-LAR OVER 33.5 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NYJ-CAR UNDER 36.5 (-2.9) 2. PIT-TB UNDER 39.5 (-2.3) 3. HOU-NE UNDER 38.5 (-2.1) 4(tie): IND-BUF UNDER 39 (-2.0) and JAX-DAL UNDER 37.5 (-2.0)

 

Top NFL Preseason Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:

Overall Trends

– ATLANTA is on a 4-17 SU and ATS skid in the preseason

Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 @ MIAMI)

– BALTIMORE has won 23 straight preseason games and is 24-4-1 ATS in the last 29

Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-6 vs PHILADELPHIA)

– BUFFALO is on a 10-1 SU and ATS surge in the preseason but did lose their final game of ‘22

Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+5.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS)

– DALLAS won their final two preseason games of 2022 SU and ATS after going 6-21-3 ATS in its prior 30

Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 vs JACKSONVILLE)

– DENVER is 10-2 UNDER the total in their last 12 preseason games

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37.5 @ ARIZONA)

– DETROIT has won just two of their last 16 preseason games outright, allowing 25.9 PPG, and is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15

Trend Match: FADE DETROIT (+3 vs NY GIANTS)

– LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 10-3 SU and ATS preseason surge

Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+4 vs SAN FRANCISCO)

– MIAMI has gone 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 preseason contests

Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI (+2.5 vs ATLANTA)

– NEW ORLEANS has gone 16-4-1 UNDER the total in its last 21 preseason tilts

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37.5 vs KANSAS CITY)

– The NY JETS are 6-1-1 in their last eight preseason contests (6-2 ATS)

Trend Match: PLAY NY JETS (+3.5 @ CAROLINA)

– PHILADELPHIA has gone 3-11-1 SU and ATS in their last 15 preseason games

Trend Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+6 @ BALTIMORE)

– WASHINGTON is just 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 preseason games

Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 @ CLEVELAND)

 

Home/Road Trends

– DETROIT has lost its last seven HOME preseason games SU and ATS

Trend Match: FADE DETROIT (+3 vs NY GIANTS)

– GREEN BAY is on a 10-2 SU and ATS run at home in the preseason but has lost its last seven on the road (0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS)

Trend Match: FADE GREEN BAY (-4.5 @ CINCINNATI)

– INDIANAPOLIS is on a 9-2-1 ATS surge on the preseason road

Trend Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5 @ BUFFALO)

– LAS VEGAS has won its last six preseason home games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 8.7 PPG

Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+4 vs SAN FRANCISCO)

– SAN FRANCISCO has gone UNDER the total in its last seven road preseason games

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 36 @ LAS VEGAS)

– SEATTLE is on an 8-1 UNDER the total run in home preseason games

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 35 vs MINNESOTA)

– TAMPA BAY is just 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS in home preseason contests since 2013

Trend Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-1 vs PITTSBURGH)

 

Favorite/Underdog Trends

– BUFFALO is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog but did lose the last time out

Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+5.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS)

– CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog but 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine as chalk

Trend Match: FADE CHICAGO (-3.5 vs TENNESSEE)

– CINCINNATI is on a 7-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog

Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+4.5 vs GREEN BAY)

– DENVER is 10-2 UNDER the total in their last 12 as a preseason favorite, allowing just 11.3 PPG

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37.5 @ ARIZONA)

– JACKSONVILLE is just 3-9 SU and ATS in their last 12 when laying points in the preseason

Trend Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-4 @ DALLAS)

– LA RAMS have covered just once in their last nine preseason games as favorites

Trend Match: FADE LA RAMS (-3 vs LA CHARGERS)

– NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 UNDER the total in their last nine games as preseason underdogs

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 38.5 vs HOUSTON)

– NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as preseason underdogs but 1-7 ATS L* as favorites

Trend Match: FADE NY GIANTS (-3 @ DETROIT)

– PITTSBURGH is 9-3 SU & ATS in their last 12 games as preseason underdog

Trend Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+1 @ TAMPA BAY)

– TAMPA BAY is 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a preseason favorite

Trend Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-1 vs PITTSBURGH)

– WASHINGTON has lost seven straight games SU as preseason underdog while going 1-6 ATS

Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 @ CLEVELAND)

 

Top NFL Preseason Head-to-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:

8/11/23 – ATLANTA at MIAMI

MIAMI is on winning streaks of six games SU and five games ATS versus Atlanta in the preseason since 2016

System Match: PLAY MIAMI

8/12/23 – INDIANAPOLIS at BUFFALO

The last 5 games of the IND-BUF preseason head-to-head series went OVER the total

System Match: PLAY OVER

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