VSiN Analytics NFL Week 5 Report

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics Report for Week 5

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, SAN FRANCISCO, LAS VEGAS

DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.

It’s safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.

System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, BUFFALO, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY

DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:

DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).

System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TENNESSEE

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.

System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, PHILADELPHIA

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they win. In this case, mildly.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY JETS

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO

DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-MIA, NO-NE, BAL-PIT, TEN-IND

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-BUF, NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL, PHI-LAR, KC-MIN, DAL-SF

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL

 

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).

Rookie Coach Systems

In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 122-135-7 ATS (47.5%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.

System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee)

Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 157-178-9 ATS (46.9%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.

System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee), FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta), FADE ARIZONA (+3 vs. Cincinnati)

Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 137-152-10 ATS (47.4%) in that situation.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta)

 

Re-tread Coach Systems

Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games – 79-118 ATS (40.1%).

System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)

Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 87-65 SU but just 49-91-12 ATS, for 35%!

System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)

Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 55-40 SU and 29-61-5 ATS (32.2%) in their first seasons over the last decade.

System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)

Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-139-7 ATS (39%)

System Matches: FADE DENVER (-2 vs. NY Jets), FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Denver)

There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-130-8 ATS (42%).

System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Denver)

 

NFL rookie quarterback systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward

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