VSiN Analytics Report for Week 8
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
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Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, CAROLINA, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
It’s safe to assume you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%), respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CHICAGO, DETROIT,
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-MIA, JAX-PIT, ATL-TEN, NYJ-NYG, PHI-WAS, MIN-GB, CLE-SEA, KC-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-BUF, HOU-CAR, LVR-DET
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-BUF, LVR-DET
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 161-182-9 ATS (46.9%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 138-153-10 ATS (47.4%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Rookie Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 79-119-1 ATS (39.9%).
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-143-8 ATS (38.4%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-133-9 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA
Re-tread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 26-22-3 ATS (54.2%) when losing an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beaten that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the rematch.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in ’23 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
