Week 1 NFL Best Bets from Steve Makinen:

After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have built a list of my wagers for this opening weekend of the season. I rely heavily on this report and will virtually never post a Best Bet that doesn’t have some sort of analytical reason behind it. If you’re wondering how this does for me, in a very strong season last year, culminating with a Kansas City/Under sweep in the Super Bowl, my final year-end record was 87-61-2 ATS, good for 58.8% and +19.9 units of profit. I almost exclusively pick sides or totals, with only an occasional mention of money lines.

That said, here are my favorite wagers for Week 1 games. I’ve locked in on 10 games, a few more than usual since I’ve had an entire offseason to prepare for these contests.

 

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Green Bay vs. Philadelphia

Friday, 8:20 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

One of the NFL’s biggest stories will be whether the Eagles can return to the form that won them an NFC title two years ago or if they will continue their 2023 late-season dive. In going 11-6 last season, head coach Nick Sirianni’s team won eight games by single-possession margins. They also went just 1-6 in their final seven games while losing all of them against the spread. 

What happened to cause such a sudden change? Well, if you can point to one game, it would have to be the decisive 42-19 loss to San Francisco in what was built up to be a “king of the NFC” type of battle. The 49ers got after QB Jalen Hurts, stopped the Eagles’ running game, and exploited what was quickly becoming a tired defense. In fact, including that game, the Philly “D” allowed 31.3 PPG in the final eight contests. The big question for 2024 is whether Hurts can find his old form. The addition of RB Saquon Barkley is nice, but will it be a bigger signing on paper than on-field impact? Is it bigger than the loss of C Jason Kelce? I just don’t like the way this team fell off the cliff last season. It’s hard to come back from that. 

At the same time, the Packers and QB Jordan Love were among the league’s best late in the season. It’s one of the reasons I’m struggling with #1) Why Philly is favored by 2.5 and 2) Why the DK betting public is enamored with the Eagles. When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. With Green Bay 20-9 ATS as an underdog since 2019 and Philly 17-27 ATS in road/neutral games since 2019, I think this sets up for a Packers win.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go with Green Bay +2.5 with some moneyline action if you prefer that too

Arizona at Buffalo

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Surely, there will be a lot of people willing to fade the Cardinals here and, more so, back the Bills laying the points and in Survivor Pools. Still, how many times can a team keep coming up short of its overall goals each season and continue coming back with the same fight? That will be a big question for the Bills this year as they once again try to bounce back from postseason disappointment. 

For 2024, the Bills have seen the departure of several key players, including starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Those roles will, of course, be filled, but will the new talent have the same sync with QB Josh Allen? This team was one of four last year that enjoyed a positive turnover differential yet finished less than .500 against the spread. This is typically a sign of a team that declines the next year. They also won six games by 8 points or fewer, another potentially negative sign of things turning quickly. 

Concerning the point spread, which has sat at 6.5 points for most of the offseason, Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5-points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2013. In addition, NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS since 2004. The Cardinals play with a clean slate and are excited to have QB Kyler Murray healthy and WR Marvin Harrison looks poised for stardom.

NFL Best Bet: I’ll take the 6.5-points here with Arizona

Carolina at New Orleans

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Is there any team in the NFL for 2024 that you feel “blah” about more than the New Orleans Saints? It seems like almost status quo for this franchise, as they come off a 9-8 season with only negligible changes of note to consider. There’s an old saying in business: if you’re not growing, you’re dying. I’m not saying the Saints will be dying this season, but I don’t think they are growing. 

Meanwhile, the Panthers have made significant and necessary changes for 2024, from the coaching staff and on the field, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. There is a lot more reason for optimism in the Panthers locker room, and facing a divisional opponent in Week 1 should fuel the motivation. This is a system I’ve played on numerous occasions in Week 1 of recent seasons: Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run since 2013. 

There is also the matter of the Saints being woeful in beating point spreads at home (20-37 ATS since 2017), and QB Derek Carr is one of the worst chalk covers in the NFL (18-37-1 ATS in his last 56). If you’re looking for perhaps one more nugget to convince you, rookie head coaches like Carolina’s Dave Canales are 172-149-7 ATS (55.3%) on the road in the last decade.

NFL Best Bet: I’m taking the 4-points with Carolina

Dallas at Cleveland

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

There has been a lot of writing off of Dallas’ chances this season for whatever reason, albeit concerns about the coaching staff, the defense, QB Dak Prescott’s continued postseason troubles, or the seemingly unclaimed starting running back position. Perhaps even more so, NFL fans are just anxious to see “America’s Team” go down after back-to-back 12-win seasons. That said, for this opening week game at Cleveland, DK bettors are backing the Cowboys at better than a 60% rate. 

That could be good for head coach Mike McCarthy’s team, as in NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). Or perhaps they’ve picked up on my opening week system that states home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-15 SU and  3-16-1 ATS since 2015. In any case, I’m not comfortable laying points with the Browns here. In 12 starts with Cleveland, QB Deshaun Watson has just 14 TD passes against nine interceptions. They are also just 19-28 ATS as favorites since 2017. I’ll be looking for a trend of road teams going 4-0 ATS in this head-to-head series to extend.

NFL Best Bet: I’m going with Dallas +2.5 with some moneyline sprinkled in as well

Houston at Indianapolis

Sunday, 1:00 pm. ET (CBS)

Boy, the changes for these two teams in the offseason must have been significant. When they last met in Week 18 in January to decide the AFC South title, the Colts opened as 1-point home favorites. The Texans won that game. Here we are eight months later, with a line favoring them by 3 points. That is noteworthy at this time of the year, as divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009. 

There are also two nice DK betting splits systems that indicate the bettors’ love for the Texans is misguided. First, in NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. Second, since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). This is a very public play after Houston’s success last year. I hate public plays.

NFL Best Bet: I’m backing the Colts at +3

Jacksonville at Miami

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

You will recognize that this is the only game of the week I feel comfortable enough to lay points. The Dolphins are underpriced, and last year, they showed how well they can play early at home, putting up 70 points in their home opener versus Denver. I don’t expect an outburst like that here, but they shouldn’t need it either, as this in-state series has tended to go Under the total in eight of the last nine games. 

Why is this significant? How about because the Jaguars haven’t topped the 24-point mark against Miami since putting up 62 back in 2000. Since then, they have scored just 15.1 PPG. A figure like that on Sunday would make things relatively easy for QB Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel & Co. Speaking of Tua, he is 20-6 SU and 18-8 ATS in home games in his career, and Miami as a franchise is on a 56-27 ATS run at home. Add to that this nice system stating that opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-27-5 ATS since 2000, and I think we have the makings for a rare preferred favorite.

NFL Best Bet: Lay the 3.5-points with Miami

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Admittedly, I am in the boat of believing that the Chargers will be a better team with head coach Jim Harbaugh in 2024, to the point that I made their season win total a best bet in our initial betting guide. However, I have two separate systems that make them a play against in Week 1 versus the Raiders. 

First, divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since 2013. Second, Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons. The last time these teams met back in December, the Raiders hung 63 points on the Chargers. Ironically, it was in the second half of a season in which the LA defense was otherwise quite strong. The magnitude of that loss had to have a lot to do with the Chargers moving on from Brandon Staley and bringing in Harbaugh. Fans of the franchise are excited about the change, but they will barely recognize a number of players who have been brought in to replace aging stars. The schemes will also be very different as Harbaugh figures to rely more on a run-based attack rather than putting everything on QB Justin Herbert. 

The Raiders played some pretty inspired football for interim head coach Antonio Pierce down the stretch. As such, he was named the permanent choice to lead this team into 2024. He turns to QB Gardner Minshew to lead the offense after Minshew, who has had an up-and-down (mostly up) career, nearly led the Colts to the playoffs a year ago. This is a tough spot for a favorite to be in. While it can be argued that revenge is a good motivator, there is enhanced pressure of being placed as a favorite over a team you lost to last time. I like the Raiders, who are quietly on a 23-12 ATS divisional run in a down-to-the-wire contest

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Las Vegas +3 points

Minnesota at New York Giants

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

On the list of teams for 2024 facing the biggest offensive question marks and perhaps pessimism as well, you’ll find both the Vikings and Giants. Imagine the surprise of finding them squaring off in Week 1 with a total of over 41.5. Like me, however, most bettors at DraftKings seem to be backing an Under. That is good, since when 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. 

Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record. The stats are there as well. The Giants are 44-22 Under the total since 2020 overall and 18-3-2 Under as home dogs since 2020. I’m having a hard time seeing either team do well offensively, and while I would probably normally just go against the offensively short road favorites here, I’ll opt Under instead,

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 41.5 in MIN-NYG game

New England at Cincinnati

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

I read this week that the Patriots’ season win total is one of the most popular in the league and bettors are not supporting their chances, dropping that number from 5.5 to 4.5. I have one on the Over for them. One of the strangest changeover systems I have encountered in studying NFL teams from one season to the next reads as follows: Teams that won five or fewer games, none by double-digit margins, have shown significant improvement in the follow-up campaign. In fact, since 1993, there have been 52 such teams, and 50 of them improved the next season by an average of 3.9 wins per season, including one by as many as 10 games. 

Why is it strange? Well, it basically says that the team was so bad that it can only go up from here. It’s the power of the clean slate. For the Patriots, the room for quick improvement is immense. They lost eight games by single-possession score margins while only scoring 13.9 PPG. The offense can only improve with Jacoby Brissett expected to start this week. 

Also, while it may seem crazy to think that letting go of the league’s most successful coach ever in Bill Belichick, the changeover to rookie head coach Jerod Mayo should give this team a breath of fresh air after things had clearly gone sour following the departure of QB Tom Brady a few years ago. If that weren’t enough, this team had terrible turnover luck last season. I’m more optimistic than most with a solid defense ready to go. With that in mind, NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004. This is New England. Plus, laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) in Week 1 since 2013.

NFL Best Bet: I’ll take those 8.5-points with New England here

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)

What an intriguing game lined up for the first Monday night tilt of the season, with QB Aaron Rodgers and the Jets looking to kickstart their season against the defending NFL runners-up in the 49ers. That point is an interesting one in itself. Super Bowl losers have been on a skid of just 5-19 ATS in Week 1 of the follow-up season since 2000. The Jets have Super Bowl aspirations of their own but will be looking for a much different turn of events than last year’s MNF opener when Rodgers went down to an Achilles injury for the season. His return and having a veteran QB in place for a new team means these two trends will be in play.

First, it takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in September, these guys have gone 37-25 Under the total (59.7%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively. Second, also dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 40-65 SU but 60-40-5 ATS (60%) when playing as underdogs of three points or more. 

We also have significant angles showing that road teams are on a 7-1 ATS run in the last eight of the NYJ-SF series, and in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 22-22 SU but 11-31-2 ATS (26.2%) in the last 44. These 49ers haven’t had a lot of time together in the preseason, particularly offensively, and it is asking a lot for them to be sharp here against what seems to be a very hungry and confident New York team.

NFL Best Bet: I’m going Jets +4.5 AND UNDER 43.5 here

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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