Week 16 Saturday NFL Primer
In addition to getting our usual dose of Thursday, Sunday and Monday action, we’re getting two NFL games on Saturday and then some Christmas Day games before Monday Night Football. I’ll be focusing on the Christmas Day slate here, previewing the three matchups we’ll see on Monday, December 25. As usual, all of our content for the week can be found at the Week 16 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page. However, keep reading to find out what you’re dealing with for this fun three-game slate.
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Odds as of Friday, December 22nd at 4:00 pm PST
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 41) – 1:00 pm ET
Aidan O’Connell absolutely lit up a miserable Los Angeles Chargers defense last week, throwing for 248 yards with four touchdowns and no picks in the blowout win. However, he’s going to have a much tougher time moving the ball against a Chiefs team that is eighth in the league in Defensive DVOA — and fifth against the pass. This is also going to be a game in which the forecast calls for cold and rainy conditions. That would make it even tougher on O’Connell and the passing game. And I don’t think Kansas City will have much trouble defending the Las Vegas running game, as the Chiefs can probably load the box here. The question is whether or not Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be able to fix this struggling offense. But the matchup is quite good for Kansas City, which beat Las Vegas by 14 on the road back on November 26. But I should note that the Chiefs are coming off a 10-point win over the New England Patriots last week. Kansas City is 1-10 against the spread off a win by 10 or more points since the start of last season. Also, if you’re looking at the total in this one, these teams did go Over on November 26. But the change in weather could drastically impact how this game looks.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 43) – 4:30 pm ET
The Giants are 16-6 ATS when facing teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0% or worse over the last two seasons. That means that New York can hang around against defenses that can’t take advantage of the Giants’ mediocre passing attack. That’s good news for Tommy DeVito and Co., especially after a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. However, I do think it’s possible the Eagles really lock in defensively here. They can’t possibly be thrilled about losing three in a row — and giving up 33 or more points in three of their last four. They have also won and covered in three of their last four meetings with the Giants, so this head-to-head series has been lopsided recently. On top of that, Philadelphia is 13-4 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni and the team has won those games by an average of 10.7 points per game. As for the total, it does seem worth mentioning that the Under is 18-8 when New York is an underdog under head coach Brian Daboll.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 47) – 8:15 pm ET
In one of the most anticipated regular season matchups of the entire season, the Ravens face the 49ers in what could be a Super Bowl preview. These are the two top teams in DVOA this season, but San Francisco has a pretty significant edge over Baltimore in that metric. The 49ers are also 8-5 ATS when playing at home this year, and they’re 12-4 ATS as home favorites over the last two years. So, the Ravens will have their work cut out for them here. However, Lamar Jackson’s ability to make plays makes it hard to rule Baltimore out. San Francisco has some real pass rushing talent, but getting Jackson to the ground is difficult. And Jackson is also getting better and better as a passer, so he can beat the Niners over the top. But can Baltimore slow down the San Francisco offense? The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey to tear it up in the running game, and Brock Purdy feeds off that well in the passing game. Also, the Ravens defense can occasionally struggle against better competition. Either way, this is going to be an exciting game to watch and it should tell us a lot about both teams.
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