NHL Best Bets
It was a disappointing loss for the Nashville Predators last night as they fell short in Game Three of their series 2-1 after outshooting the Vancouver Canucks by a lopsided 30-12. However, the Edmonton Oilers were able to take care of business on the road, routing the Los Angeles Kings in a 6-1 win at Crypto.com Arena to give us a little momentum into today’s NHL best bets.
For the first time this postseason, we will see some elimination games today. The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning are on home ice for their respective Game Fours and are on the verge of being swept. The Vegas Golden Knights will have a chance to play in front of their home crowd for the first time in these playoffs as they look to put a stranglehold on their series against Dallas. The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to tie their series up with Boston.
Carolina at NY Islanders (+154, 5.5)
The Carolina Hurricanes could be the first team in these playoffs to advance to the second round with a win on Long Island today. They lead 3-0 in their series against the New York Islanders, and while these wins haven’t come easy, they’ve been able to rely upon their goaltender Frederik Andersen.
Andersen is 3-0 in the postseason thus far and has boasted a .922 save percentage, a 2.01 goals against average, and a +1.3 goals saved above expected. Andersen has been the Hurricanes’ best player by far, but this team has six players who are currently producing at a point per game rate.
Andrei Svechnikov is leading the way with four assists in the team’s three games, but Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Jake Guentzel and Brady Skjei all have three points each.
On the other hand, the Islanders only have one player producing at this rate: their captain, Anders Lee. This team needs more from their two biggest offensive weapons, Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat. Barzal has been held to just one assist in three games and Horvat has only one goal. That isn’t good enough.
Today will be a very tough challenge for the Islanders, as the pressure is solely on them. The Hurricanes might be the better team overall, but the Islanders have had a chance in all three games, but nothing has gone their way.
I think Carolina puts a nail in the coffin today and completes the sweep.
NHL Best Bet: Carolina Hurricanes to win in regulation -110 (play to -125)
Boston at Toronto (-118, 6)
The Toronto Maple Leafs hope to avoid putting themselves in a 3-1 hole in this series. Like every game in this series, this game will be about goaltending. The Boston Bruins haven’t announced their starter yet, but I think they will decide to go with Jeremy Swayman. The Bruins have alternated goaltenders all year long; it has benefited them, but after seeing how Swayman has played in his first two starts of this series, I can’t imagine taking him out of the net.
Swayman is 2-0 and has skated to a .955 save percentage with a 1.51 goals against average as well as a league’s best +7.8 goals saved above expected. The Leafs have only been able to score three goals in two games that they have faced Swayman.
For Toronto, there were a couple of goals that Ilya Samsonov would probably want back, but he has played well enough for his team to win in the first three games of this series. Despite his numbers not looking very pretty, as he has a .895 save percentage and a 3.05 goals against average, he will give the Leafs a chance to win again tonight.
The Maple Leafs power play has struggled in this series. They have scored on just one of their 11 attempts and went 0/5 in Game 3. That’s an area that they will need to figure out, but if Swayman is in goal, it will still be a challenge.
This game could be a huge swing in this series. I’m counting on both goaltenders to keep it low-scoring with a lot on the line.
NHL Best Bet: Under 6 -122 (play to -135)
April Record: 22-15 (+4.04 units)
2023-24 record: 151–147 (-26.70 units)
