NHL best bets and expert picks
Last night was a relatively quiet night. I really thought Artemi Panarin would pull through.
That said, we’ve got a ton of action to look forward to tonight, as there are 14 games on the NHL schedule with some matchups that I am very excited about. Why waste any time?
Let’s get into it.
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Seattle at Toronto (-185, 6.5)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a massive win on home ice against the Florida Panthers and are looking to carry that momentum into their contest tonight as they take on the Seattle Kraken.
Seattle has lost three of their last four games and they are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games. I have concerns about this Kraken team, largely due to their goaltending. Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord have been splitting time in net this season, but neither of them has been able to put the team on their back.
Grubauer is skating to a record of 5-7-0 with a .881 save percentage and a 3.42 goals against average as well as a -6.3 goals saved above expected. Daccord’s numbers are a tad better, but still not all that impressive. He is 3-3-5 with a .895 save percentage and a 2.99 goals against average with a -5.0 goals saved above expected. As a whole, the Kraken are allowing the seventh-most goals against per game (3.48).
Toronto’s offense hasn’t been as electric as of late, but this Leafs team has a ton of firepower up front. They’re due for a big game where they fill the back of the net, and in their short history against the Kraken, they’ve been able to do that. In their four meetings, Toronto has scored 18 goals.
The Maple Leafs are scoring 3.30 goals per game thanks to the play of William Nylander who has two goals and three assists in his last five games. Toronto is generating the sixth-most high-danger chance per game, averaging 13.95, while the Kraken are skating to the fifth-lowest at 10.57 per 60.
I don’t trust Seattle right now, I think the Leafs will find their game tonight.
Bet: Toronto Maple Leafs to win in regulation -135 (play to -150)
NY Islanders at Carolina (-198, 6)
One of my favorite matchups to bet on. The New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes is my go-to duel for a fun first period Under. These two teams haven’t been as successful in first-period Unders this year separately, but whenever they bash heads, it’s always a great bet.
Dating back to last year’s first-round playoff series, the first-period Under has hit in eight straight games between these two teams. The New York Islanders are currently averaging 1.00 goals per first period and only 0.57 goals against in the opening frame. Believe it or not, Carolina, who’s typically known for their defense, has been the more offensive team in first periods. They’re generating 0.95 goals for and 1.10 goals against, but I still trust the way that these two teams play against one another.
The goaltending battle is expected to be Ilya Sorokin against Antti Raanta, but Pyotr Kochetkov has started and won the Hurricanes’ last two straight contests.
There isn’t too much to overthink about this one. History has told us that these two teams are very defensive when they clash in the opening frame. I’m going to the old reliable.
Bet: *2 Units Under 1.5 first period -108 (play to -120)
Dallas at Calgary (-135, 6)
The Dallas Stars seek revenge as they meet the Calgary Flames for the second time this week. The Flames got the best of the Stars in the first meeting as they stormed into Dallas and won by the score of 7-4, thanks to five unanswered goals.
Jacob Markstrom and Jake Oettinger didn’t have their best showings in that game, but Oettinger bounced back with a shutout performance against the Winnipeg Jets in the team’s most recent game.
In my opinion, Oettinger is one of the best goalies in the NHL as he boasts a .916 save percentage with a 2.53 goals against average and a +3.6 goals saved above expected. Markstrom’s last two starts haven’t been the prettiest. In those two games, he is 1-1-0 with a 4.00 goals against average and a .890 save percentage.
The Stars defend very well, as they’re only surrendering 10.72 high-danger chances against per 60 and allowing 2.80 goals against per game. They also have the league’s third-best penalty kill at an 88.6% success rate.
The Flames offense isn’t very threatening. They’re scoring 2.91 goals per game and are skating to an 11.3% conversion rate on the power play, which is the sixth-worst in the NHL.
Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin each have four goals in the team’s last five games. I trust the Stars and Oettinger to get their revenge against the Flames.
Bet: *3 units Dallas Stars ML -135 (play to -145)
2023-24 record: 42-49-0 (-13.71 units)
