series predictions and best bets for Western Conference Final “

May 16, 2023

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Vegas and Dallas are set to clash once again in the Western Conference Final, marking their second encounter in this stage. The stakes are high, as the victor will secure a spot in the coveted Stanley Cup Final. It’s worth noting that the Stars previously got the upper hand in 2020, defeating the Golden Knights 4-1.

Interestingly, back then, Pete DeBoer was at the helm of the Golden Knights, and now he’s leading the Stars. What adds to the excitement is that both teams have a bunch of players, at least 10 on each side, who were part of that intense series. This shared history creates a sense of familiarity that’s sure to add some spice to the upcoming showdown.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars: Odds, series predictions and best bets for Western Conference Final

Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Vegas Golden Knights -140
Dallas Stars +120

Series Winner

Vegas Golden Knights -140
Dallas Stars +120

Series Spread

Vegas Golden Knights

-1.5 Games: +150
-2.5 Games: +300
+2.5 Games: -600
+1.5 Games: -240

Dallas Stars

-1.5 Games: +200
-2.5 Games: +425
+2.5 Games: -400
+1.5 Games: -185

Total Games

4 Games: +600
5 Games: +275
6 Games: +200
7 Games: +200

Series Breakdown

To get a sense of each team’s strengths and weaknesses, let’s take a closer look at their respective statistics and compare them head-to-head. Here’s a tale of the tape for the upcoming series:

Here’s what you need to know about this matchup:

Dallas won all three games against Vegas in the regular season, but the two most recent meetings were decided by one goal. Of course, the Golden Knights weren’t playing with a full deck due to injuries and now they’re rolling with an 8-3 record through two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Vegas has gotten contributions from all throughout their lineup, including Jack Eichel and Mark Stone.

No team has scored more even-strength goals per 60 minutes in the playoffs than the Vegas Golden Knights and they lead all teams with 2.32 high-danger goals in 11 games. It’s hard to talk about the Golden Knights’ offense without mentioning the Stars’ defense, though. Dallas has allowed the fewest high-danger shots (per 60) and they rank first in expected goals against through 13 playoff games. In other words, the Golden Knights aren’t going to have as much time and space.

Dallas ranked fourth in expected goals against during the regular season and their penalty kill was the third-best in the NHL. The Stars also had a top-five powerplay and special teams has continued to be an area strength for them in the playoffs. Vegas was mediocre on special teams in the regular season, and they haven’t been very good in the playoffs so far. Then again, they did just take on the team with the best power play in hockey.

The series is going to be tightly contested, and I would imagine it will be intense. Both teams have fought tooth and nail, not just this year, but for the past several years, to win the Stanley Cup, and neither team is going to go down without a fight. Goaltending could end up being the deciding factor in the series and as a result, and that’s one reason to like the Stars. Jake Oettinger hasn’t been good, but we’ve seen is floor, and the team is usually able to make up for his shortcomings. We’ve also seen Oettinger’s ceiling, though, and it’s high.

Adin Hill has been good for Vegas, going 3-1 with a .934 save percentage in four games against the Oilers, and shouldn’t be underestimated. The 27-year-old goaltender has waited a long time for this opportunity after a putting in time with some of the league’s worst franchises and has still come out with decent career numbers. I don’t think Hill’s ceiling is anywhere close to Oettingers, but maybe the Stars’ edge in goal fails to playout like it did against Seattle in the second round.

Who will win the series?

A best-of-7 series can result in a range of outcomes, from a clean sweep by one team to a full seven-game series that could go either way.