Masked struggles could spell trouble for these three Stanley Cup contenders

Three Stanley Cup contenders, the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers and Vegas Golden Knights have all been struggling but, for the most part, those struggles have been masked by winning. This article dives into that and explains why fans and bettors should be concerned about these teams down the stretch.

Maple Leafs’ lacklustre play sparks concern

With the third-best odds to win the Stanley Cup, the expectation is that the Toronto Maple Leafs will finally slay the dragon and win a playoff series. A feat the organization has not accomplished since 2004. But there are real concerns surrounding whether the team is going to be up to the task (a first-round matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning) based on their current form.

Toronto came into March on a bit of a hot streak, so their lacklustre play wasn’t talked about a whole lot, but they’re currently sitting at .500 after 10 games and they rank among the bottom-five teams in expected goals percentage at even strength since the beginning of the month. Toronto isn’t even playing like a playoff team right now, let alone a Stanley Cup contender according to Evolving Hockey:

via Evolving-Hockey.com

Now, Toronto’s big trade deadline acquisition, Ryan O’Reilly, hasn’t been in the lineup since March 4^th due to a broken finger, but if that doesn’t explain how bad the team has been these last few weeks and their strong play in February was likely due to a cakewalk schedule. Toronto was the fourth-best team in expected goals percentage during that month, but they only played three playoff teams (Boston, Minnesota, Seattle) and they were mediocre in January, so the writing has been on the wall for a while.

Rangers’ struggles masked by hot streak

The New York Rangers, who have the sixth-best Stanley Cup odds, also rank among the bottom-10 teams in even strength expected goals percentage since the beginning of March. Their struggles have also been masked by winning, but they haven’t beat an Eastern Conference playoff team in well over a month, which is about the same amount of time that goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been average:

New York is stacked on paper, especially after adding Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane. They should be dominating teams, but they’re not. In fact, they’ve only outshot the opposition twice in their last 11 games and they’ve only had a positive expected goal differential in three of those games.

New Jersey, meanwhile, ranks among the top-five teams in both expected goals and shot attempt percentage, and there’s a good chance the Devils and Rangers will meet in the first round. If that happens, and the play of both teams carries over to the playoffs, the Rangers better hope their goaltender isn’t average or worse.

It’s worth noting that defenseman Ryan Lindgren has missed about a month, and his return to the lineup will mean a lot now and in the playoffs, but goaltending is more important.

%%RelatedNews%%

Goaltending hiding subpar Vegas defense

Surprisingly, starter Logan Thompson is the only Vegas goaltender that has a negative GSAx (goals saved above expected) year-to-date. Adin Hill (7.54), Jonathan Quick (3.48), Laurent Brossoit (3.91) and even Jiri Patera (2.87) all have been better that Thompson. Of course, Thompson has played almost as many games as all four goaltenders combined, but he hasn’t played since February 9^th and since then, the Golden Knights have gone 13-5 straight up.

The Golden Knights’ goaltenders have played exceptionally well in his absence. Only seven teams have allowed fewer goals against per 60 minutes since Thompson was injured, but Vegas is lucky it turned out that way because they ranked just outside the bottom-10 teams in expected goals against (per 60) at that same time and you could argue that goaltending has saved them:

In fact, only five teams have given up more shots against per 60 minutes since Thompson went down with injury, so he’s coming back to a hostile environment and one of two things must happen: Thompson better be on his game, and then some, or the Golden Knights must clean up things on defense. Otherwise, not only will the Golden Knights be in danger of losing their grip on top spot in the Pacific Division, but they might also end up being fodder for a tough team like Edmonton in the playoffs if their goaltending results start to match their effort on defense.