Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.
All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
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Market Report Recap for Friday, Dec. 17th
Friday was a tease. An early bet on the Ducks to cover the puck line got off to a great start as Anaheim led 3-1 lead before the ten-minute mark of the first period. However, the Ducks couldn’t hold the Coyotes off and ended up losing 6-5 in overtime. Then, a late add on the Jets after Washington’s lineup was revealed got off to a bad start, as Winnipeg trailed the Capitals by two goals. The Jets battled back, though, and tied the game in the third period, but Washington pulled ahead and won 5-2.
Game Lines:
46-44, -1.12 units, -1.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -107
Player Props:
106-100, -6.15 units, -2.5 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109
Market Report for Saturday, Dec. 18th
It doesn’t feel like Saturday. Four games have been postponed and there are six games left on tap. Rosters are a mess, too, which has made managing a player prop model a nightmare. I’ll do my best to find some value in the player prop market later today, but I don’t know that I’ll be taking any positions on game lines.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Ottawa Senators (%plussign% 135) at Philadelphia Flyers (-155)
Ottawa has wins over some of the league’s best teams in recent weeks. It’s probably driven by shooting and saving luck, more than anything else, but either way, it’s hard not to notice. The team’s underlying numbers have improved as of late, but their opponents have also been in tough spots due to injuries and scheduling. The Flyers won three in a row after snapping a 10-game losing streak, but they found themselves on the losing side again when the fell in extra time to a depleted Montreal team in their last game. There’s not a whole lot separating these teams, and according to my model, the Flyers should be priced around -120. There was some value on the Senators earlier, but the line moved before limits went up.
Update: Carter Hart was placed in COVID protocol and Martin Jones will start for the Flyers.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at Vancouver Canucks (%plussign% 110)
John Tavares, Jason Spezza, Alex Kerfoot and Wayne Simmonds are all on the COVID list. Mitch Marner is still out with an injury. This might still be the toughest team that the Canucks have had to face since they made their coaching change, but it’s another example of how everything has been going right for the team since then. Jack Campbell will start in goal for the Maple Leafs, though, and he and the players that remain are still capable of cooling off the Canucks. However, my model has generated a fair price of -120 in favor of the road team, which means I don’t see value on either side.
Update: This game has been postponed.
Los Angeles Kings (%plussign% 140) at Carolina Hurricanes (-160)
The Kings are coming off a big win over the Panthers, just before they had their season put on pause. The Hurricanes are in a similar situation. Carolina and Florida are two of the elite teams in the NHL, but like the Panthers, the Hurricanes roster has been hit by injuries and illness. Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal and Seth Jarvis are all on the COVID list. However, the odds on the underdog are not nearly as generous this time around. On Tuesday, I was able to take the Kings as a %plussign% 155 underdog against the Panthers. Now, sportsbooks are offering %plussign% 140 against the Hurricanes, and Drew Doughty is in COVID protocol. According to my model, the Hurricanes should be priced somewhere between -130 and -145, depending on what the lineups look like.
Update: Goaltender Cal Petersen has been placed in COVID protocols. Jonathan Quick is expected to start in goal for the Kings. Frederik Andersen is expected to start in goal for the Hurricanes.
Chicago Blackhawks (%plussign% 165) at Dallas Stars (-185)
Dallas has lost back-to-back games against a St. Louis team that was missing several important players. The Blues third-string goaltender, Charlie Lindgren, won both games. The Stars had won seven in a row heading into their game against Vegas on December 8th. Since then, they have lost five straight. Jake Oettinger should get the start in goal on Saturday. The game opened around -175, which I thought was appropriate. According to my model, Dallas should be priced around -173, assuming Kevin Lankinen is in goal for the Blackhawks. Chicago also lost on Friday, falling 3-2 in overtime to a banged-up Nashville team.
Update: Kevin Lankinen and Jake Oettinger will start in goal for their respective teams.
Player Props:
Patrick Kane Under 0.5 Points %plussign% 200 (DraftKings), Ryan Suter Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)
According to the Propagator, Kane should register one point or more about 58 percent of the time, which means the under should be priced closer to %plussign% 140. It's a bet that will lose more often than not, but at %plussign% 200, it's a value bet. Suter could have a bigger role with Heiskanen out of the lineup, but it sounds like the Stars are hopeful that he will play. In that case, the under should be priced closer to -180, according to the Propagator.
New Jersey Devils (%plussign% 120) at Detroit Red Wings (-140)
New Jersey is missing a handful of players due to COVID, but none are more important than forward Nico Hischier, and the lineup is most impacted by his absence. The Devils only have three wins in their last 16 games and have lost four in a row. Detroit, meanwhile, followed up a five-game winning streak by losing four of their last five games. So, we have two bad teams looking to get back on track, but according to my model, there isn’t value in taking the dog or laying the favorite, assuming Alex Nedeljkovic and MacKenzie Blackwood are the starting goaltenders. Detroit should be priced around -125, which means the Devils should be priced around %plussign% 125.
Update: Detroit goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic was added to the COVID list. Thomas Greiss will start. New Jersey goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood has joined Hischier, P.K. Subban and Ryan Graves in COVID protocols. John Gillies is expected to get the start in goal. Based on these changes, my model estimates that the Red Wings will win the game approximately 55 percent of the time, which means the projections hasn't changed much from where it was before.
Edmonton Oilers (-120) at Seattle Kraken (%plussign% 100)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was recently added to the COVID list, along with several other players, and Zach Hyman is sidelined with an injury. Overall, the Oilers are missing about six regular skaters. The Kraken will be without a few regulars as well, but only Yanni Gourde moves the needle. Seattle is not a good hockey team, and it’s no longer just a goaltending issue. This team is bad because they regularly get outplayed. However, the Oilers are missing secondary scoring that they desperately need, and as a result, my model estimates that they should be priced around -118.
Update: Jesse Puljujarvi and Duncan Keith have been added to the COVID list. Stuart Skinner will start in goal for the Oilers. Chris Driedger will start in goal for the Kraken. It's tough to model this game as it's tough to project what the Oilers' lineup will look like, but they should be priced somewhere between -115 and -105.
Bet Summary
Early Bets:
Late Adds:
Patrick Kane Under 0.5 Points %plussign% 200 (DraftKings)
Ryan Suter Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)
