NHL Predictions – Monday, October 28:
We are coming off a weekend in the NHL that saw betting favorites going a resounding 17-3, and home teams were 15-7. The Over cashed in 14 of the 22 games (1 push). Four of the eight favorites tonight are (-200+), and these big favorites have won eight straight and are 21-7 on the season. As we make tonight’s NHL predictions, remember that before you target every big favorite as a “lock,” this strategy would only be up 1.95 units for the season.
The Monday eight-game card is highlighted by the Winnipeg Jets trying to make it nine consecutive wins to start the season as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have dominated this matchup of late. In Tampa, it’s Steven Stamkos’s first game back in the city he called home for sixteen seasons when the Predators take on the Lightning. It’s been a tough start for Stamkos who has just one goal on the season and a plus/minus rating of (-7). The San Jose Sharks are still looking for their first win of the season and will look to avoid an 0-10 start as they visit the Utah HC.
Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning (-130; 6)
7:30 p.m. ET
After starting the season losing their first five games, the Nashville Predators have won three in a row, including a pair of one-goal victories over Chicago and Columbus. The Lightning ended the Washington Capitals’ five-game winning streak on Saturday, blanking the Caps 3-0.
So now you know how these teams have performed heading into tonight’s game. That’s all the deep analysis I am giving you about these two teams because tonight’s game is about Steven Stamkos and his return to Tampa after 16 seasons playing for the Lightning. I have mentioned before that when players return to face their former team, they put “money on the board” to incentivize a victory. The only question remaining is whether we are talking about a four- or five-figure amount.
I have no desire to wager on either team or the game total. I will strictly focus on the prop market for this one. Here are the numbers behind the plays. Filip Forsberg leads the Preds with 40 shots on goal and has had seven shots on goal in three of the last four games. Forsberg has had five or more shots in five of Nashville’s eight games.
This is more about my feeling that the Predators will do everything possible to get Steven Stamkos a goal tonight. He is (+155) to score a goal and his shot prop is listed at Over 3.5 (+120).
In Nikita Kucherov’s first five games of the season, he cashed the Over 3.5 shots on goal prop. Though he has earned points in every game, his volume shooting has tapered off, including Saturday night versus the Capitals, where he had a big fat zero. With Stamkos in the house, I say he is firing away all night.
NHL Predictions: Steven Stamkos Over 3.5 SOG (+120) – 1 unit
Filip Forsberg Over 4.5 SOG (+125) – 1 uni
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 SOG (-105) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets (-120; 6)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to end the Jets’ eight-game win streak to start the season. Toronto has won five straight and seven of the last 10 games between the two teams. They have held the Jets to two goals or less in four straight games while scoring at least three goals in each of the last four games they have faced Jets goalie Connor Hellebucyk.
Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have enjoyed a great deal of success versus the Jets. Matthews has six goals and 10 points in his last six games versus Winnipeg, and Marner has five goals and 14 points in ten games.
NHL Predictions: Mitch Marner/Auston Matthews Over ½ pt each (+.78) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs TT over 2.5 (-155) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche (-225; 6.5)
9:00 p.m. ET
It’s been a tough start to the season for Connor Bedard and the Blackhawks. Offseason additions were supposed to make the Hawks more competitive, but Chicago is in the thralls of a five-game losing streak and have just two wins in their first nine games. Tonight begins the first of four on the road, and if history is any indication, the Blackhawks’ losing streak will extend to six games.
The Avalanche have absolutely owned the Blackhawks over the years. Colorado has won four of the last five (all by shutout) and eight of the last 10 meetings versus Chicago. The Blackhawks have lost six straight at Colorado, four times failing to score a goal. The Blackhawks have scored two goals or less in six of their seven losses this season.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche appeared to have turned the corner. After losing their first four games to start the season, Colorado has won five in a row and taken advantage of a soft schedule. Colorado’s five opponents have combined for 15 wins in 43 games.
Nobody had Ross Colton leading the Avalanche in goals (8), not even his parents. Colton has scored a goal in five of the last six games and is also second on the team in shots on goal. Colton has gone over his shots on goal prop (2.5) in all but one game this season.
NHL Predictions: Ross Colton over 2.5 SOG (-155) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks TT under 2.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche in Regulation (-155) – 1 unit
Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights (-210; 6)
10:00 p.m. ET
Calgary hits the road for a mini two-game road swing with stops in Vegas and Utah. The Flames have lost back-to-back games and three of their last four after opening the season with four consecutive wins. Calgary has won two of the last three meetings in Vegas after losing the previous seven trips to Sin City.
After dropping all three games on their eastern road swing the Golden Knights have returned home, winning three straight to improve to 6-0 at the Fortress. Vegas has scored 19 goals in the last three games and scored six goals or more four times on home ice. Golden Knights center William Karlsson returned from injury and made his season debut on Saturday versus the Sharks. Karlsson finished with a goal and an assist. He has 26 points in 25 games against the Flames.
The Golden Knights have gone Over the first period total of 1.5 goals in eight of their nine games. The Flames have given up nine goals in their last two games.
NHL Predictions: Vegas/Calgary 1st period total Over 1.5 goals (-145) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights in regulation (-120) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights TT over 3.5 (-130) – 1 unit
William Karlsson Over ½ point (+105) – 1 unit
