NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, February 1:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers (-160, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Maple Leafs look to avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season when they travel to Edmonton. Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has had that ability to bounce back after a loss, winning nine of his last 10 starts following a loss. There is value in playing the Maple Leafs at (+140), and if I had to play a side strictly on value, Toronto is the way to go.
What intrigues me for this game is the first period Over 1.5 goals. Edmonton games have gone Over the first period total in eight straight and nine of their last 10 games. The first period Over has cashed in six of their last eight meetings.
There are some good player prop options. The Leafs’ Bobby McMann has four goals in three games against Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner, Mitch Marner has three goals in four games and Pontus Holmberg has two goals in three games. Edmonton’s Jeff Skinner has three goals in two games versus Leafs goalie Joseph Woll.
NHL Predictions: 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 2 units
Jeff Skinner anytime goal (+420) – ¼ unit
Bobby McMann anytime goal (+380) – ¼ unit
Mitch Marner anytime goal (+270) – ¼ unit
Pontus Holmberg anytime goal (+900) – ¼ unit
NY Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning (-170, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Islanders are the league’s hottest team, riding a six-game winning streak and have been very stingy when it comes to surrendering goals, with the Under cashing in seven of their last nine games. Tampa games have cashed to the Under in three straight and four of the last five.
Jake Guentzel has seven goals in 12 games versus Ilya Sorokin and Nikita Kucherov has four goals in seven games against Sorokin
NHL Predictions: New York Islanders/Tampa Bay Lightning Under 6 (-130) – 1 unit
Nikita Kucherov anytime goal (+145) – ¼ unit
Jake Guentzel anytime goal (+185) – ¼ unit
Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators (-140, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
Going to keep this simple. The Wild have gone Under the full game total in three straight and five of the last seven games. Yes, the Sens game went Over the total in their previous game against the Caps but they are 15-2-1 to the Under in their last 18 games. The previous three meetings have gone Under the total, including Ottawa’s 3-1 win in late December. As always, shop around on the price for the total as the juice varies from sportsbook to sportsbook.
NHL Prediction: Minnesota Wild/Ottawa Senators Under 5.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Nashville Predators (-120, 6.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
Two teams that are struggling meet tonight in Pittsburgh. Nashville has dropped three straight, and the Penguins have dropped seven of their last 10. Early goals have been a theme in Nashville games that have featured a goal in the first 10 minutes in eight straight and nine of their last 10 games. The first period Over has cashed in eight of the last 10. Steven Stamkos has five goals in six games against Pens’ projected starting goalie, Alex Nedeljkovic.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10 (-165) – 1 unit
1st period Over 1.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Steven Stamkos anytime goal (+185) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings at Carolina Hurricanes (-175, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Kings have gone 162:55 without scoring a goal, so when I tell you that I am on a goal to be scored in the first five minutes (and therefore a goal in the first 10 minutes) and the first period Over 1.5 goals, I can hear everyone saying, “JD, are you nuts?” My response is, “The system is the system.” The Kings are not only in the system play of teams coming off a shutout, but they are also in the “Super System” of teams coming off back-to-back shutouts. Those teams are 4-0 to the first period Over 1.5 goals, they are also 4-0 for a goal to be scored in the first five minutes (and therefore, 4-0 for a goal in the first 10 minutes).
For me, this game is Carolina or pass on the game. Los Angeles has lost four straight and eight of their last ten games, as well as losing eight of the last nine meetings with the Hurricanes. I will jump on Mikko Rantanen of the Canes and his shots on goal prop of Over 2.5. Rantanen scored his first goal with the Canes in their 3-2 win over Chicago on Thursday. In his three games with Carolina, Rantanen has had five, three and five shots on goal.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 5 minutes (+205) – ½ unit
Goal in the 1st 10 minutes (-135) – 2 units
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 1 unit
Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 SOG (-130) – 1 unit
Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals (-112, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
It’s a battle between the top two teams in the NHL when the Winnipeg Jets (1st overall) visit the Washington Capitals (2nd overall). The Jets have won five straight and eight of their last 10 games, and the Caps have lost two of three but have won seven of their last 10 overall. Both these teams are very stingy when it comes to giving up goals. The Jets have given up two goals or less in 12 consecutive victories, and the first period Under has cashed in six of their last eight games. Nine of the last 11 Caps games have gone Under 1.5 goals in the first period. While I do like the first period Under, I don’t encourage the full game to stay under the total (5.5). Both teams have gone Over the full game total in four of their last six games. Washington is 13-2 off a loss and we get them tonight at a great price. The Caps have won five straight over the Jets on home ice.
A couple of player props that have got my attention. Alexander Ovechkin is 19 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s career mark of 894 goals. Ovechkin has 55 goals in 73 games versus the Jets and five goals in 12 games against Jets starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Aliaksei Protas is on a six-game point streak and has recorded an assist in four of his last six games. Pierre Luc-Dubois has six points in nine games versus the Jets.
When it comes to Jets goal props, I am going down the board. Winnipeg’s Alex Iafallo has scored four goals in seven games against Caps goalie Logan Thompson.
NHL Predictions: 1st Period Under 1.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Washington Capitals ML (-110) – 1 unit
Alex Iafallo anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+150) – ¼ unit
Aliaksei Protas Over ½ assist (+230) – ¼ unit
Pierre Luc-Dubois over ½ point (+112) – ¼ unit
