NHL Predictions – Saturday, November 2:
With the calendar flipping to November, it’s time to share Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada’s Insider, Elliotte Friedman’s statistic on teams in trouble of missing the playoffs. Going back to the 2005-06 season when the Salary Cap came into effect, only 10 of 70 teams that are four points or more out of a playoff spot at the completion of games on November 1 have made the playoffs. The Nashville Predators and Chicago Blackhawks are the only two teams as of November 1 that fall into this category, as they are both four points out of a playoff spot. Saturday in the NHL features four games with favorites (-200+). To date, those favorites are 23-11 on the season, but you would be down 6.9 units if you wagered on all 34 games. Now, if you focused solely on the (-200+) home favorites coming off a win (9-1), you would be up 6.9 units. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings (-205; 6)
4:00 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Kings will look to accomplish something today that they haven’t done in 14 years: to win their first four home games to start the season. This afternoon’s visitors, the Chicago Blackhawks, are as favorable an opponent as any for the Kings to make it four straight wins on home ice. The Blackhawks are last in the NHL’s overall standings and have lost five straight (outscored 20-8) and eight of the last 10 games to LA. Interestingly, five of the last 10 meetings between the two have gone to overtime.
Los Angeles is coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 6-3-win Wednesday over the Vegas Golden Knights and have won three of their past four. Brandt Clarke had three assists against the Golden Knights and is enjoying a four-game point streak (1 goal, 6 assists). Forward Alex Laferriere has goals in back-to-back games and points in seven of the Kings’ 10 games this season.
NHL home favorites this season (-200+) off a win are 9-1, have scored four goals or more in eight of the nine wins, six of the nine victories have been in regulation. The Kings have scored four goals or more in their last three wins over the Blackhawks and seven of their last nine wins over Chicago.
NHL Predictions: Los Angeles Kings (-205) – 1 unit
Brandt Clarke Over ½ point (+114) – 1 unit
Alex Laferriere Over ½ point (+110) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+330) – ¼ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals (-225; 6.5)
5:00 p.m. ET
The Blue Jackets hope to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season when they travel to Washington to face the Capitals. Columbus became the 10th victim of the Winnipeg Jets on Friday as they were torched for a season-high six goals in their 6-2 loss to the Jets. Today will be the first time this season Columbus will be playing on back-to-back days. Last season, the Jackets were 4-9 on the back end of back-to-backs. On the flip side, in four of the five Columbus wins this season, they have faced a team on the back end of back-to-backs. With Elvis Merzlikins starting last night against the Jets, expect Daniil Tarasov to get the start today versus Washington. Alexander Ovechkin has scored a goal in each of the two previous games he faced Tarasov. One Columbus player to pay attention to is Sean Monahan, who has gone over his shots on goal prop (2.5) in eight of the 10 games this season.
Since an opening night loss, the Capitals have won seven of their last eight games. The Caps have scored four or more goals in six of their seven wins and covered the puck line in five of their victories. When you go inside the numbers of the past meetings between the two teams, the common theme is tight games. The previous six games were all decided by one goal, with Washington winning five of the six games, and three went to overtime.
Washington opened as a (-235) favorite and has been bet up to (-260). NHL home favorites this season (-200+) off a win are 9-1, have scored four goals or more in eight of the nine wins, and six of the nine victories have been in regulation.
NHL Predictions: Washington Capitals TT Over 3.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Alexander Ovechkin Over ½ assist (+120) – 1 unit
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+125) – 1 unit
Sean Monahan Over 2.5 SOG (+125) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs (-205; 6) at St. Louis Blues
7:00 p.m. ET
Tonight marks the return to St. Louis for Maple Leafs head coach, Craig Berube, who was fired last season by the Blues. Berube’s former team handed Toronto a 5-1 setback last week in Toronto in a game Berube referred to his team as playing “a little too cute.” There will be nothing cute in this game tonight as Leafs players will be laser-focused on not letting down their coach a second time. Toronto opened as a (-175) road favorite and has been bet up to (-200+ across the board. Toronto’s Matthew Knies and Max Pacioretty have been solid value plays for earning a point. Knies has points in seven of his last nine games, benefiting from playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Since moving to a line with John Tavares and William Nylander, Pacioretty has four assists in his last two games. For his career, he has 23 points in 24 games against the Blues.
Since knocking off Toronto, the Blues have lost three straight and outscored, 15-4. Toronto has scored four or more goals in all six of their wins this season, and St. Louis has given up at least four goals in four of their six losses. NHL home favorites this season (-200+) off a win are 9-1, have scored four goals or more in eight of the nine wins, and six of the nine victories have been in regulation.
NHL Predictions: Maple Leafs PL (+124) – 2 units
Maple Leafs Race to 4 goals (+125) or TT over 3.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Max Pacioretty Over ½ point (-103) – 1 unit
Matthew Knies Over ½ point (-103) – 1 unit
Utah HC at Vegas Golden Knights (-170; 6.5)
10:00 p.m. ET
It’s been home sweet home for the Golden Knights, who are seeking their first 8-0-0 start since their inaugural season in 2017-18. The Knights are a perfect 7-0-0 on home ice but have lost all four games on the road (0-3-1). Goals have come in bunches for Vegas at “The Fortress,” outscoring the opposition, 39-16 on home ice, scoring fewer than four goals on just one occasion. It shouldn’t be any surprise that the Golden Knights have gone over the first-period total of 1.5 goals in six of their seven home games and nine of 11 overall. (courtesy @VIROGERS and @PsuOtto). The Golden Knights are 4-2-0 to the full game Over on home ice and 8-2-1 overall.
This game opened with Vegas as a (-195) home favorite, and per our VSIN Bet Splits page, despite receiving 92% of the bets and 89% of the money, we are seeing a line move to the Utah HC. NHL favorites in the (-175 to -199) range are 17-9, with 13 of the 17 wins seeing the favorite cover the puck line (-1.5 goals).
Utah is coming off a 5-1 win on home ice, snapping a four-game losing streak that saw Utah give up 17 goals in the four losses. I am a little confused by the line move to the visitors. The Utah HC blueline will get a boost with the recent acquisition of Olli Maatta from the Detroit Red Wings, but they are still a little thin overall on the backend.
I will pass on the side in this game but will go back to the well with a couple of prop plays that I have already outlined as well as riding the Golden Knights, Pavel Dorofeyev shots on goal prop going Over the total of 2.5. I went into detail about Dorofeyev’s increased usage in my Wednesday writeup. He has cashed this prop in six of the last nine games.
NHL Predictions: Utah HC/Vegas 1st period Over 1.5 (-140) – 2 units
Utah HC/Vegas Over 6.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 SOG (-122) – 1 unit
Vancouver Canucks (-290; 6) at San Jose Sharks
10:00 p.m. ET
Going to keep this analysis very simple. This game falls into one of the best trends of the 2024-25 season. The Canucks are coming off being shutout 6-0 by the New Jersey Devils. The first period Over is 16-2 in games involving a team coming off being shutout, and the full game is 13-4-1 to the Over. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings between the two and 14-5-1 in the last 20.
NHL Predictions: Vancouver/San Jose 1st period Over 1.5 (-140) – 2 units
Vancouver/San Jose Over 6 (-122) – 1 unit
