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Series Updates for Thursday, April 27th
Bruins lead series 3-2
The ice was heavily tilted in Boston’s direction in Game 5. The Bruins finished the game owning 63 percent of shots and 64 percent of expected goals, but a costly turnover by Tyler Bertuzzi put them behind early and a Linus Ullmark blunder gave the game to Florida in overtime.
Now, the Panthers have life, and if they win one home game, they will force a winner-take-all Game 7, and my series spread wager will be toast. However, this is sort of what I had in mind when I bet the Bruins to cover the series spread (-1.5 games) at -145. Boston is listed at -175 on the moneyline in Game 6, so -145 is a good number.
Updated Series Probabilities:
Boston Bruins Win Series: 87%
- Bruins Win 4-2: 60%
- Bruins Win 4-3: 27%
Florida Panthers Win Series: 13%
- Panthers Win 4-3: 13%
A lot of the goals that Florida has scored in the series have been caused by the Bruins themselves. Credit to the Panthers for taking advantage, but if Boston cleans up their game and manages the puck better, they should eliminate the Panthers. They’ve let the series get away from them, though, and losing two games at home in the first round is borderline inexcusable.
Seattle Kraken lead series 3-2
The Kraken once again scored the first goal in Game 5 and for the third time in the series, the Avalanche failed to mount a comeback. Seattle is now one win away from advancing to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and guaranteeing that the NHL will crown a new champion later this spring.
Updated Series Probabilities:
Colorado Wins Series: 44%
- Avalanche Win 4-3: 44%
Seattle Wins Series: 66%
- Kraken Win 4-2: 44%
- Kraken Win 4-3: 22%
Jared McCann’s status heading into Game 6 is unknown currently. The forward was on the receiving end of a late Cale Makar hit that led to a suspension for the Avalanche defenseman, and he missed Game 5. Makar will be back for Game 6, and getting McCann back could help balance the scales slightly for the home team.
Without McCann, I estimate that Seattle will eliminate the Avalanche in six games approximately 44 percent of the time, which means +127 would be a fair price for the home team on the moneyline. If he’s back, I would be closer to +120. Seattle has been the better team over the last couple of games, owning more than 60 percent of the expected goals combined, and momentum is on their side.
Today’s NHL Odds
Tuesday’s NHL schedule features three great matchups and one team, the New York Islanders, is facing elimination. Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the entire board.
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+130) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-150)
- New York Rangers (+105) at New Jersey Devils (-125)
- Winnipeg Jets (+165) at Vegas Golden Knights (-185)
News and Notes
- Jets: Already without defenseman Josh Morrissey, the Winnipeg Jets received another big blow, as Mark Scheifele – who led the team in goals with 42 during the regular season – will not be in the lineup for Game 5.
- Jets: Winnipeg is hopeful that Nikolaj Ehlers will play his first game in the series, but that won’t come close to making up the loss of Morrissey and Scheifele, who were second and third on the team in points. The Jets opened game 6 as a +140 underdog but are now priced at +165.
- Maple Leafs: Michael Bunting will not suit up for Game 5, a decision that has left many scratching their heads, including myself. Bunting’s hit on Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak was dirty, but he’s a talented player and the Maple Leafs could use him in the lineup.
- Maple Leafs: Rookie Matthew Knies has been bumped up in the lineup and will play with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Meanwhile, William Nylander has been moved to the top line to play with Auston Matthews and Calle Jarnkrok.
