Team USA is a heavy favorite to win Olympic gold in Paris, but the competition around the world is stronger than ever. Canada and France are both extremely talented, with rosters filled with high-level NBA players. But there are a lot of other teams that are clawing away and looking to make some noise. We have already seen some close calls for some of the heavy favorites. With that in mind, this should continue to be one of the most exciting sports to watch at the Olympic Games, so we’re going to dive into the action. The schedule for Friday, August 2nd features four games. We’ll get into all of them below.
Look out for whether I label a game with LEAN or BET. I’ll be breaking down every game, but I’m not betting each one — or counting them for my record. The record below only includes games labeled BET, which will also make their way to the Pro Picks page. I’ll go a bit longer on the games I’m betting.
Olympic Basketball Record: 2-5 (-2.38 units)
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Brazil vs. Japan – 5:00 am ET
A lot of people are going to be quick to back Japan after the team’s near-win over France last game. However, this is still a team that is very undersized, and the group had the worst odds of anybody to win the gold before play began. I don’t think one poor performance from France should be enough to mean Japan is now a better team than Brazil. Both of these teams are obviously 0-2 and it was Japan that was more competitive in one of the losses. But Brazil has better guard play than Japan, and the team also happens to have some forwards that can impact the game on both ends of the floor. So, while Japan has Rui Hachimura, a legitimate NBA rotation player, and Yuta Watanabe, a sniper that had a cup of tea in the league, I actually believe Brazil’s wings will be more impactful in this game. Brazil should also win the battle on the glass and get more production out of its bigs.
Lean: Brazil ML (-133)
Greece vs. Australia – 7:30 am ET
Australia has played two games that have surpassed the total for this game. The Boomers earned a 92-80 win over Spain in their first game. They then lost 93-83 against Canada. Australia’s simply looking like a good Over team at these Olympics. That comes with having multiple players that can handle the rock, with Patty Mills, Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels and Dante Exum all being players that can push the ball up the floor. Jock Landale is also an offensive-minded big that will impact games offensively but allow some easy buckets on the other end. I don’t see that changing against Greece.
Look for Giannis Antetokounmpo to have his way with Australia in this game, even with Daniels being a good wing defender and likely handling that assignment. Daniels is just giving up a little too much size there. And if he does guard Antetokounmpo, that would leave some of Australia’s lousy perimeter defenders on some of Greece’s struggling guards. That could be exactly what they need to get going.
I also think that the point differential here is interesting. Not only does Greece need a win, but the team also needs to do so by a good margin in order to try and steal one of the final spots in bracket play. That could force Greece to play a little sloppy in trying to score, opening up opportunities on the other end. We saw a lot of that in the In-Season Tournament.
Bet: Over 167.5 (-105)
Spain vs. Canada – 11:15 am ET
I have had a pretty difficult time handicapping Spain so far. However, I am very high on this team’s ability to score the basketball, even if the group is missing a dynamic off-the-dribble threat. That would have been nice against a team like Canada, but the reality is that Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks would hound those guys anyway. So, it might be better that Spain will look to run offense primarily through Willy Hernangomez here. Hernangomez is one of the best interior scorers in this tournament, and he’s also a good decision maker with the basketball. And he happens to have a big body and a lot of strength, making it easy to envision a scenario in which he’ll dominate here. Canada is weakest at the center position, by far. Hernangomez will just need a little help elsewhere, but there’s no reason Santi Aldama can’t get hot here. He has the size to shoot over the top of most of Canada’s wing defenders.
If Spain can consistently create good looks against Canada, there’s no reason the team can’t keep this within 10. Spain doesn’t have anybody that can cover Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray, but the team can make up for that by throwing some doubles at them and forcing the ball out of their hands. Canada’s role players have played extremely well offensively in this tournament, but that isn’t very sustainable.
Overall, I just don’t think Canada has the offensive juice it needs to blow Spain out. So, I’ll happily take the points here.
Bet: Spain +10 (-110)
Germany vs. France – 3:00 pm ET
France was viewed as the biggest threat to USA before this competition began. However, the team has looked pretty miserable thus far. It took France a while to wake up in its win over Brazil to open group play, and the team should have lost to Japan in the second game. France got some good calls late in the game, including a soft four-point play that allowed Les Bleus to send the game to overtime. Well, France was able to overcome shaky play against weaker competition. The team won’t be able to do that against Germany.
Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert make for an intimidating frontcourt. Absolutely no one wants to see those two when driving to the basket. But France is really lacking perimeter firepower and quality guard play. That’s where Germany should have a real edge. Dennis Schroder is going to be the most effective guard on the court in this game, whether he’s looking to create offense for himself or his teammates. And Franz Wagner is going to have his fingerprints all over this game on the wing. That duo is really why I like Germany’s chances here. Germany runs a ton of its offense through both, giving them the two best on-ball creators on the court. When you combine that with the fact that Germany has a bunch of capable bigs — including Mo Wagner, Daniel Theis and Johannes Voigtmann — I think this team is capable of going into a tough road environment and clinching Group B.
Bet: Germany ML (-148 – 1.5 units)
