Group play for the men’s basketball competition at the 2024 Paris Olympics is over. Outside of where certain teams finished in each group, we didn’t get too many surprises when looking at the teams that made the quarterfinals. The United States, France and Canada were the pre-tournament favorites to win gold. All three booked spots in the knockout stage, with France doing so in pretty disappointing fashion. Meanwhile, Germany is also in the mix after having been the most impressive team outside of USA in group play. The rest of the field is rounded out by Serbia, Australia, Greece and Brazil. As we get further into the tournament, we’ll continue to provide you with Olympic basketball predictions and best bets. Keep reading for some plays for Tuesday, August 6th.
Look out for whether I label a game with LEAN or BET. I’ll be breaking down every game, but I’m not betting each one — or counting them for my record. The record below only includes games labeled BET, which will also make their way to the Pro Picks page. I’ll go a bit longer on the games I’m betting.
Olympic Basketball Record: 6-6 (+1.07 units)
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Greece vs. Germany – 5:00 am ET
Germany went 3-0 in Group B action. The team also concluded group play with an absolute beatdown of France. This German team has some firepower with Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner both capable of creating offense for themselves and others regularly. The team also plays with real toughness. The rotation is filled with physical players with size. That should serve Germany pretty well in a meeting with Greece. This point spread is a little bigger than I’m willing to personally play, which is why it’s more of a lean. However, I do think Greece could struggle in this matchup.
Franz is as well equipped as anyone at the Olympics to handle the Giannis Antetokounmpo assignment. And when he shades Antetokounmpo to the basket, the Greek Freak will be met by guys like Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner. Those are two NBA talents that understand verticality and won’t hesitate to use their fouls. So, there shouldn’t be too many easy opportunities for Antetokounmpo here.
Antetokounmpo’s weak supporting case could be exposed against a deep, cohesive German team. Germany overwhelmed France in similar fashion, showing that Les Bleus just didn’t have the players required to compete. If Germany is knocking down outside shots, this could potentially be an easy win.
Lean: Germany -7.5 (-115)
Australia vs. Serbia – 8:30 am ET
Serbia was able to hang on to a win over South Sudan in what was a very tight game for three quarters. That win put Nikola Jokic and Co. in the quarterfinals. Now the team will face quite the challenge against a feisty Australia team. If you’ve been reading along throughout the course of the competition, you know that I’m concerned about Australia’s inability to guard around the basket. Jock Landale starts at center for the Boomers. The Houston Rockets big man is a good offensive player, but he is a little undersized for a center and doesn’t have much foot speed. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jokic absolutely dominates here. However, I think Australia is fully capable of keeping the rest of Serbia’s players in check, and I also think that the Boomers have the ball handling and playmaking to give their opponents hell on the other end of the floor.
Defensively, one matchup I’m really interested in watching is Dyson Daniels covering Bogdan Bogdanovic. Daniels will likely spend a lot of time covering his new Atlanta Hawks teammate, and I like that for Australia quite a bit. Daniels is one of the best perimeter defenders in this entire competition. He’s going to be up on Bogdanovic when the Serbian has the ball, and he’s also going to do his best to hang with him off the ball. Daniels does a good job of hounding his man all over the floor, and his screen navigation is very impressive. If he can prevent Bogdanovic from going off, this should be a very competitive game.
On offense, the Australian team just has so many big playmakers that can take advantage of a relatively slow group of Serbian perimeter defenders. Daniels is somebody that can impact games on the offensive end, but Australia will mostly roll the ball out to Josh Giddey here. Giddey has played very well offensively. His ability to attack the rim and finish with either layups or floaters should be on full display here. And he’s as good of a passer as there is in this event. We should also see some attacking from Dante Exum, who is a more aggressive driver in international play than he is in the NBA. And then there’s Patty Mills, who can get as hot as anyone from deep. Look for Mills’ speed off the ball to give Serbia some problems. He’s going to free himself up for some looks.
I know Serbia was viewed as a far superior team heading into the Olympics, but this is a bad matchup for Jokic’s group. Not only do I like Australia to cover a relatively big number, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Australia +7 (-120 – 1.5 units) & Australia ML (+235 – 0.5 units)
Canada vs. France – 12:00 pm ET
I’m not going to play anything in this game. Before the tournament, this would have felt like too big of a spread. France was once considered a legitimate contender to win a gold medal. Of course, the team has struggled thus far. But one would think Les Bleus would be able to cover this number at home. After all, the team has a massive advantage inside. Canada’s main weakness is that the team doesn’t have a big man. Well, that could be a problem against Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. However, France also lacks the perimeter scoring required to keep up with Canada’s group of shotmakers, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a good amount of iso-ball from Canada’s guards, who will work tirelessly early in possessions to get those French bigs switched on guys like Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray — or even Dillon Brooks and RJ Barrett. And defensively, Canada will likely send a bunch of doubles at Wembanyama, as France doesn’t have many players that can make them pay for that.
All in all, I can see this going either way, but I feel a little better about Canada opening it up.
Lean: Canada -7.5 (-110)
Brazil vs. USA – 3:30 pm ET
Team USA hasn’t struggled with anybody since this competition actually started. And I don’t see the Americans actually running into any problems with Brazil. But I continue to believe that Team USA’s spreads are inflated by the oddsmakers. The Americans have failed to cover in back-to-back games, and they now have no incentive to run scores up. Now that we’re out of the group stage, point differential doesn’t matter. So, I can’t see Team USA keeping its foot on the gas in the second half of games.
There’s a pretty good chance Team USA runs away a bit in the first half. Brazil isn’t as good as Serbia or South Sudan, and the Americans had no trouble blowing out either team. But Brazil is a little better than Puerto Rico, and the latter hung around against USA last game.
Brazil is somewhat similar to Puerto Rico in that the team is loaded with solid guards. Marcelinho Huertas is the most recognizable of the bunch. The veteran is going to have some trouble creating off the bounce here, as he just lacks athleticism in a big way — especially at this stage of his career. But Brazil has other guards that can create, and Huertas will do a decent job of orchestrating the offense. Also Bruno Caboclo, now six years removed from two years away from two years away, has the talent required to impact this game on both ends. He’s coming off a 33-point, 18-rebound performance against Japan last game. I expect him to give Team USA a lot of problems.
This is just a game that can easily turn into a blowout, but it would need to really get out of hand for Team USA to cover. That’s why I’m grabbing the points again.
Bet: Brazil +27.5 (-111)
