EPL Best Bets
Let’s get into this week’s Premier League matches and my EPL best bets.
Fulham vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Crystal Palace are in a good spot right now, having won three games in a row. They haven’t won four Premier League fixtures in succession for the best part of four years, but I think they will end that wait against Fulham.
I get regular updates on how things are going with Palace as my brother is a season ticket holder there and attends every home match. For the first time in a long while, there is a real feel-good factor around the club, with the team playing some really entertaining soccer.
In midweek against Newcastle, they were much the better side, ending up 2-0 victors, but it really should have been a win by a much wider margin. They even had the luxury of resting one of their star men, Michael Olise, and taking the sublime Eberechi Eze off with 10 minutes remaining.
Moreover, they have a striker in Jean-Philippe Mateta who is bursting with confidence and scoring goals. The 26-year-old got both goals against Newcastle, his eighth goal in nine appearances under Oliver Glasner, closing in on the combined total of 11 goals he scored in 79 games across the management spells of Roy Hodgson and Patrick Vieira.
These two sides may not be separated by much geographically, but they certainly have contrasting opinions of the season right now. The Fulham fans will want the season over, they’ve done ok but let’s break for summer and rebuild. In contrast Palace fans can’t get enough of what they are seeing.
I was so tempted to put the Eagles up on the moneyline against a Fulham side stumbling their way to the end of the season. Instead, I am playing it a little safe and taking the visitors tie-no-bet at +150.
The Cottagers have lost three of the last four games, and there is good symmetry in their fixtures to allow us a form comparison to Palace. The last three games have seen a 2-0 win against West Ham and defeats to Liverpool and Newcastle by 3-1 and 1-0 scorelines. Glasner’s men have faced the same teams in their last three fixtures—impressively winning them all: 1-0 at Liverpool with 2-0 and 5-2 home wins against Newcastle and West Ham.
It seems the home side are more likely to turn up wearing espadrilles rather than soccer boots and Crystal Palace can take advantage. With nothing at stake in this match it appeals to keep the draw onside so in this case if it does end all square, we get our stake back.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at +150.
Manchester United vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Can Burnley pull off the great escape and stay up? Possibly, but they will need results to go their way elsewhere. I would rather bet them match by match, which is what I am doing here.
I sensed a switch in the Clarets a few weeks ago and count myself unlucky not to have cashed more tickets than I have on them. Late, late goals and unforced, crazy errors have cost them, but it clicked last time out when they thumped Sheffield United 4-1 on the road.
Vincent Kompany has made some bold decisions and implemented some basic changes, which have had a positive impact. This is certainly enough to give them a big chance here against a Manchester United side that simply cannot defend.
The Red Devils have one win from their last seven games in all competitions, a very hard-fought 4-2 win over Sheffield United, who twice took the lead on Wednesday night. They have conceded 17 goals across those seven fixtures, which is absolutely shocking, with only the Blades allowing more than their average of 17.7 shots per game over the whole season.
Burnley’s improvement has seen them lose just one of their last seven league games, scoring 12 goals in the process. They fight for their lives at the bottom of the table. For United, I wonder how much they will want this clash.
The top four is out of reach, and they look likely to claim a lesser-ranked European qualifying position. At the end of the season, they also have an FA Cup final against their city neighbors to look forward to.
Then there is manager Erik ten Hag. To me, he looks like a man who knows he is on borrowed time, likely to get the sack in the summer regardless of what he does over the remaining games.
There is not enough upside for me to bet Burnley on the Moneyline, but I think backing them on a +1 Asian Handicap at +105 is a great play. This is mainly because I can’t see the visitors failing to score against a Manchester United side that can’t keep a clean sheet.
If Burnley score one, then United must score three for us to lose. A one-goal defeat gets us a full refund on our stake.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at +105.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Aston Villa look like massive value on the moneyline at +118. Despite huge market negativity leading up to kickoff, they cashed for me last week on the -0.75 handicap with an impressive come-from-behind win against Bournemouth. I expect them to be too hot for Chelsea to handle here.
Ollie Watkins added two more assists to his total, making it 12 for the season now, to go alongside his 19 goals. Inspirational manager Unai Emery delighted fans by signing a new contract.
I think the drift last time out is because of their involvement in the Europa Conference League. The Bournemouth game coming a couple of days after the dramatic penalty shootout win against Lille. Next week the Villains face Olympiacos in the semi-final of that competition.
That doesn’t faze me as I think Villa will have laser focus on the job in hand here with a win stretching their advantage over Tottenham in fifth place to nine points. A top-four finish and qualification for the Champions League would be monumental for the club.
Chelsea has some serious injury concerns,, too. The impressive Malo Gusto is set to miss out again, and due to illness, the availability of 20-goal top scorer and Blues player of the season Cole Palmer remains a question mark.
To underline his importance to his team, even Mauricio Pochettino has dubbed the club Cole Palmer FC. In his absence, Nicolas Jackson carries the weight of goalscoring responsibility, which seems heavy on his shoulders.
He looked lost in the 5-0 mauling at Arsenal in midweek. A result that heaped more pressure on Pochettino, a manager the fans have never really got behind and who admitted when his side are bad, they are really bad.
Villa come into this one unbeaten in five home games and having won four of those. They scored 14 goals across those fixtures, with a minimum of two in each. One thing is for sure: they will get plenty of chances against this Chelsea side.
A home win at odds of +118 is a cracking bet, especially when you consider Arsenal were -186 to beat Chelsea a few days ago.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline at +118.
