EPL Best Bets
Let’s get straight into my EPL best bets for this week’s stellar Premier League action.
Bournemouth vs. Everton
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
My first pick this week is in the player prop market, and it is for Dominic Solanke to score at +130. It is an EPL best bet I like for many reasons.
Solanke is Bournemouth’s main man, and he is having the best season of his career in the top flight, scoring goals for fun. He has scored 11 goals in his last 15 league games, and I think he will be playing in a side now that are safe from relegation so will have a free hit at the remainder of their fixtures.
The Cherries are 14 points clear of the drop but nine away from the European qualification places with six sides ahead of them. This will mean they may not go flying into tackles or even win the majority of games, but it does mean they can play open, attractive and adventurous soccer. All of which lends itself to their main striker adding plenty more goals to his tally.
We have already started to see that with Andoni Iraola’s side scoring six goals in their last two games. The most recent highlighted both sides of their game in slipping 3-0 behind to Luton by halftime only to respond with four unanswered second-half goals to win a seven-goal thriller. One of which was superbly scored by our selection here.
As we know, Everton are fairly solid defensively, with England’s Jordan Pickford in goal and the highly rated Jarrad Branthwaite at centerback. But Solanke has personal goals to achieve this term and that will act as a driving force.
The 26-year-old was left out of the England squad for the recent friendlies with Brazil and Belgium in favor of Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney. Neither was particularly impressive, and my fear as an England fan is having no quality backup to Harry Kane, so I think Solanke will be given a chance in the final friendly before the squad for the Euros is announced.
To ensure that happens, though, he needs to have a good end to the season. That means scoring goals, and that starts here. He knows this is likely his best and possibly last chance to make a squad for a major international tournament.
Remember, this is a home tie against a relegation-threatened outfit, and he is plus money. He takes penalties and has 15 goals for the season, the same as Mo Salah and just three short of current top scorer Erling Haaland. If either of those two were lining up in this match, they would be -200. In short, Solanke is massive value.
EPL Best Bet: Dominik Solanke to score at +130
Chelsea vs Burnley
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
I think this fixture will be tighter than the odds suggest, and many people think. Burnley have been whipping boys all season but have found a little form and have been a little unlucky not to have picked up more points in recent weeks than their performances deserved.
A key move is finally replacing young England goalkeeper James Trafford with Arijanet Muric who was first choice in their promotion-winning side of last season. It’s a decision Vincent Kompany probably should have made earlier, but as soon as he did, his side picked up a long-overdue win in beating Brentford 2-1.
I feel this pick will be swimming against the tide, but it is something I have always been very comfortable in doing as it has been so profitable for me. On this occasion, it is playing under 3.5 goals, which I believe is a very high line.
The Clarets will visit Stamford Bridge and try to frustrate the home side hit them on the break and nick a 1-0 win. Getting the Chelsea fans, who are already impatient at their misfiring side, to create a negative atmosphere.
You also must ask what has Chelsea’s season come to? It all comes down to the FA Cup now they have reached the semi-final of the competition.
The Blues have Manchester City in that semi but ask any of their supporters what they want above anything else now and that is to make the final at Wembley. If that means a defeat or 0-0 draw here against Burnley, then they would take it. I think they want the manager out, and that wouldn’t change even if he won them a trophy.
Mauricio Pochettino is still contending with a long injury list and, as a result, is having to put out ever-changing makeshift teams. His one shining light of the campaign is Cole Palmer who has looked tired in the last couple of fixtures after a long season carrying this Chelsea side. His minutes will have to be managed for the important fixtures coming up.
I think this line is built on the fact seven of Burnley’s last eight league games have cashed for over 2.5 goals. However, three of the last four of those matches have also cashed on the under 3.5 line – the one we are playing here and shows you how important it is being able to take that higher line.
I love that we can see three goals in this game and still get a full winner. Looking across the season Chelsea have scored 23 goals from their 13 home games while Burnley have scored 14 in their 14 road trips—a combined 37 from 27 games at an average of 1.3 goals per game.
I make this line about 3, so we have plenty of room on our side, especially with the favorites here Chelsea having more than 30 players away on international duty all over the globe the last two weeks.
EPL Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals at -138
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
What a huge fixture this is! Game of the week? Certainly. Game of the season so far? Probably.
All season I have been in the camp of Liverpool — the other side in this three-team title race. All season I have been saying Arsenal will fall away and they weren’t the value play, and I still don’t think they will win the title.
This is a massive match for the Gunners, much more important than it is for Manchester City. They need to get a positive result as much psychologically as anything but also if they failed to do so that would mean going into the weekend as leaders and coming out of it in third place. We saw what happened to them last season when they crumbled, and they know defeat here would start the media saying it is history repeating.
The international break has helped Mikel Arteta’s side incredibly. Manchester City’s John Stones, Kyle Walker and Manuel Akanji all injured while away with their nations. Ederson and Kevin De Bruyne still have major doubts. Arsenal pulled out Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Gabriel Martinelli, which has given them two weeks to recharge and recover from knocks.
I also think Arsenal are a totally different proposition this year. They are playing with confidence, have gone toe-to-toe and beaten the elite sides in England, and put together an impressive run in the Champions League with a huge tie against Bayern Munich on the horizon.
Crucially they have finally beaten Manchester City having won the reverse fixture at the Emirates. The apprentice at last getting one over the master Pep Guardiola.
Everyone at the club has learned from those experiences and the fear we saw last year – particularly in that 4-1 thrashing in the “title decider” in this fixture last term – has gone. For those reasons, I like a pro-Arsenal play here, and we can take them on the Double Chance at -103.
I don’t necessarily think they can go to the Etihad and come away with all three points, but I certainly think they can avoid defeat. That is all we need to cash this ticket.
If it turns out that all those injury doubts I have mentioned are unable to play, then we will see a huge move for Arsenal before kick-off. Let us not forget this is the side that have the best form, the best attack and best defense in 2024.
The Gunners have won all eight games this calendar year, scoring 33 goals and conceding just four. Across the season, they have shipped a league-low 24 goals, with just 11 on the road. With that watertight defense, they can avoid defeat in this monumental clash.
EPL Best Bet; Arsenal Double Chance at -103
