EPL Best Bets for the January 20th-22nd matches
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
The story dominating the headlines around this fixture is the return of Ivan Toney after an eight-month ban. Seeing his name on the team sheet again couldn’t come at a better time for a Brentford side in freefall.
There are mixed signals as to whether he will still be a Bees player come the closing of the current transfer window or whether one of the top sides will put up some serious cash to take him away. What is certain is he returns hungry and desperate to make up for lost time by doing what he does best – firing in lots of goals.
Thomas Frank’s side urgently needs their talisman to come back and hit the ground running. That starts with this huge clash against their relegation rivals Nottingham Forest.
Forest are one point ahead of the hosts and four clear of the relegation zone but with a potential points deduction hanging over them. The winner here eases their fears of the drop while the loser is bang in trouble.
In years gone by, this kind of matchup would lead to a tight and cagey battle, with both sides more concerned about not losing than trying to claim a vital win. This season, however, the trend when two sides near the bottom of the table meet has been for them to go for it.
We have already seen Brentford host Bournemouth, Everton, Burnley, Luton and Wolves with Over 2.5 goals cashing in all five fixtures – the scores reading 2-2, 1-3, 3-0, 3-1 and 1-4. Forest have played out high-scoring games against Sheffield United (2-1), Luton (2-2), Fulham 0-5 and Bournemouth (2-3).
I just can’t see either of these two settling for a draw and will be going all out for the win, especially with the Toney factor. As a result, goals are where I am going, and I am playing over 2.5 at odds of -115.
Five of Brentford’s last six in the league across all venues have cashed for Over bettors, with a league-high eight of their 10 home games seeing three or more goals. That includes seven of their last eight and each of the last three.
The visitors have seen five of their last six road games go Over 2.5 goals, with new manager Nuno Espírito Santo deciding that an all-out attack is the best policy. His five games in charge have produced 20 goals, with both teams scoring at least three goals, the feature of each one.
Absentees impact both sides due to the African Cup of Nations and both were involved in midweek FA Cup replays where the goals continued to flow. Both games ended 2-2 after 90 minutes, and needing extra time to find a fifth and deciding goal.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals at -115.
Sheffield United vs. West Ham
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
My initial thoughts were to back Sheffield United on the moneyline here. But having broken down their stats over the season so far, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Fortunately, West Ham seem to have been given too much credit, so we can take the home side on a +0.25 Asian Handicap, and that is the play at -102.
For those unfamiliar with Asian Handicap, by betting this line, we have half our stake on tie-no-bet with the other half on Sheffield United +0.5 goal head start. This means we cash in full with a home win, get a half-stakes win if it’s a draw, and only lose if this ends with an away win.
The Hammers are vulnerable here. I watched them in their midweek FA Cup replay against Championship side Bristol City, and they were absolutely dreadful.
The second-tier side were well up for the game, putting some hard tackles in and basically roughing up their Premier League opponents. David Moyes must have been fuming to see the limp performance and weak resistance his men put up.
They should expect a repeat of that against the rock-bottom Blades, who are a Championship side in all but name. However, I have seen signs of improvement since Chris Wilder returned to the club he is a lifetime supporter of.
In his first home game back in charge Wilder saw his side defeat Brentford 1-0 since then, going on to lose to Luton in heart-breaking fashion in a game they should have won. They were the first side in 15 to win a point at Aston Villa, who needed a last-second equaliser, while a 2-0 defeat at Manchester City in their most recent league outing was no disgrace.
Although they still aren’t picking up many points, the Blades have shown they aren’t going to go down without a fight. Show the same fight against this brittle West Ham side, and they could pick up a massive three points.
David Moyes has a real selection nightmare for this game, especially in attack, with top scorer Jarrod Bowen a big doubt and is likely not to feature again until next month. Lucas Paquetá is out until March, Michail Antonio is back in training, but this game will come too soon, Mohammed Kudus is on international duty, and Said Benrahma picked up a stupid red card in midweek, so they will miss the next three games.
This seems to me a season-defining fixture at what will be a packed Bramall Lane, and it’s a game I can’t see them losing. I wouldn’t put anyone off the bolder moneyline play, but getting the draw onside is too appealing, so it’s Sheffield United +0.25 Asian Handicap for me.
Pick: Sheffield United +0.25 Asian Handicap at -102
Brighton vs. Wolves
Monday, 2:45 p.m. ET
After a season so far which has seen Brighton have a packed fixture list, they will go into this match with the luxury of not having played for 16 days. That should see a return to the form that made them the blind Overs play instead of the side in recent weeks to back for Unders.
The Seagulls have some key players missing, the likes of Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma and Anssumane Fati, which would put me off backing them to win. However, how this game is set up with two very attack-minded managers screams goals. So much so that I am playing Over 3.0 goals on the Asian total.
As an Under bettor for longer than I can care to remember, I can’t believe I am putting a selection up needing four goals to cash the ticket. But here I am, and I am confident cash is what we will be doing.
Seven of Brighton’s 10 home games have seen three or more goals, with five cashing this bet. After three 1-1 draws, we saw a return to textbook Roberto De Zerbi in the 4-2 defeat of Tottenham in their last Premier League game on home soil.
There has also been a history of goals in the recent head-to-heads, with the Seagulls winning the reverse fixture 4-1 at Molineux. Last season they won there 3-2 and hammered Wolves 6-0 here.
Gary O’Neil has transformed his side who were regarded as one of the most boring teams in the English topflight prior to his arrival at the start of the season. He has only seen his men fail to score in two of the 20 league games they have played so far this campaign. One of those was in the opening game of the season, where they battered Manchester United at Old Trafford.
There have been 20 goals scored in Wolves’ last six matches across all competitions, with at least three in five of them. What’s more, arguably their most creative player before his injury, Neto, is available once again.
The OId Gold are another side that with the pressure of getting league results pretty much off them, will have their eyes on going deep into the FA Cup. They have a massive local derby in that competition next weekend against West Brom, which without doubt takes priority over this fixture in the eyes of their supporters.
All of which once again leads me to goals and plenty of them. Preference here for the Asian total, meaning we need four goals for a full win but will get a refund should there be exactly three goals.
Pick: Over 3.0 Asian Total at +108
