Best Props of Euro 2024
Poland to finish bottom of Group D
Poland were disappointing in qualifying finishing third in their group four points behind Czech Republic and Albania. They then needed a penalty shootout to squeeze past Wales and book their ticket for Germany.
The most alarming stat is that the Poles did not register a single shot on target throughout the entire 120 minutes in Cardiff. As a result, I am happy to fade them here and take them to finish bottom of their group.
This will be Poland’s fifth European Championships in succession, but it once again seems a wasted spot. In three of those last four tournaments, they have failed to register a win and finished bottom of their group, including when they hosted in 2012.
The game plan is likely to be to defend well and keep it tight even more so, with the news that captain Robert Lewandowski will miss at least the opening game with a hamstring injury picked up in their final warm-up fixture against Turkey.
That opening match is against Netherlands, with Austria and France awaiting on match days two and three. All of those opponents look to have too much ability for Michal Probierz’s side certainly possessing more firepower.
Of the 24 teams lining up in Germany, Poland was the lowest-scoring nation, scoring 10 goals in winning just three of their eight fixtures, two of which came against minnows Faroe Islands. They are favorites to once again finish bottom of their group, and I can’t see any other position for them.
Euro 2024 Pick: Poland to Finish Bottom of Group D at -125.
Scotland to finish bottom of Group A
Scotland are looking to make it out of the group stage of a major tournament for the first time ever. I don’t think they will manage that here and are another side I am happy to back to finish bottom of their group.
Earlier this month Steve Clarke saw his side end a seven-game winless sequence with a thoroughly unconvincing 2-0 win over Gibraltar a side ranked 203 in the World. Attempts to turn that form around have not been helped by injuries to key players Aaron Hickey, Lewis Ferguson and most recently striker Lyndon Dykes.
It couldn’t be a tougher start for the Tartan Army either with hosts Germany waiting in Munich to kick off Euro 2024. The host nation are my main fancy to win the tournament and there will be an electric atmosphere as the home crowd roars on their side to get off to a flying start.
Hungary and Switzerland are the remaining members of Group A, and both harbour hopes of progressing deep into the competition. Scotland will need to perform better than in Euro 2020 when their solitary point was picked up from a bore draw with England at Wembley. But I can’t see it.
Scott McTominay scored seven goals in qualifying, but that kind of goal scoring is surely unsustainable. His midfield partner, John McGinn, was the only other player to score more than once.
The Scots look another side that will try to keep it tight but will struggle to score themselves. Their group rivals all look to have too much quality to let them off the hook, and they are destined for last place.
Euro 2024 Pick: Scotland to finish bottom of Group A at +110.
Albania Lowest Scoring Team
Albania surprised many in qualifying when they topped their group ahead of Czech Republic and Poland. Their reward a place in the “Group of Death” alongside European heavyweights Spain, Italy and Croatia.
Former Arsenal and Barcelona defender Sylvinho is the man tasked with trying to conjure up a miracle. However, their last competitive result was a 0-0 draw with Faroe Islands, a result which clearly illustrates how tough the task in hand is. Algeria also failed to get on the scoresheet in subsequent warm-up fixtures in defeats to Chile and Sweden.
Since taking over in September the Brazilian Head Coach has tried to implement a more expansive style. I expect that to be shelved when facing these three nations who all hold ranking in the World top 10.
The other thing going against the Albanians is that with such a competitive group, the remaining three sides will all target them for the easiest three points on offer. English-born Armando Broja is the main hope for goals, but the 22-year-old was not wanted by Chelsea and struggled on loan at Fulham last season, failing to score in eight appearances.
Expect the focus to be on defense for Albania as they specialize in tight games. Six of their eight qualifiers went under 2.5 goals as did all three of their games at the 2016 finals.
This step up in class is likely to prove too much, and betting them to be the lowest scorers in the tournament is a great angle, also providing a better price to fade them than other similar markets. They will only have three games before being eliminated and are red-hot favorites to lose all group games.
Euro 2024 Pick: Albania Lowest Scoring Team at +400.
Most Assists: Trent Alexander-Arnold for England.
A window of opportunity has opened for Trent Alexander-Arnold, who looks like one of the beneficiaries of England’s injury crisis. For a while, it appeared the Liverpool man may not even make the squad for Euro 2024. Now, he is likely to start in the opening fixture against Serbia.
Now 25-years-old he will desperate to finally make an impact at a major tournament. Having played a fraction over a combined 100 minutes at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups he missed Euro 2020 through injury.
Having always been considered a right-back there have been ongoing questions regarding his ability to defend. However, he impressed in a midfield role in the recent friendly win against Bosnia, and that is the position he will take if selected this weekend.
With 58 Premier League assists to his name from 226 appearances, most of which coming while playing as a defender I think Alexander-Arnold will be a revelation in a more advanced role. He is arguably England’s best passer and certainly their best crosser with the ability to deliver from deep with the incredible pace and bend he can put on the ball. A potent weapon against a team sitting in deep to defend.
He created five chances in the Bosnia friendly, as well as scoring himself and put 12 passes into the opponent’s penalty area. On top of this, he will be an incredible asset in delivering set pieces.
If selected in the opener which seems likely, then it is over to him to make himself un-droppable for at least the remaining group games. Luke Shaw topped England assists in the last Euros with three, it was Dele Alli with one in 2016 and Steve Gerrard with three in 2012. It wouldn’t take much for England’s number eight to hit those numbers and cash this bet at a very nice price.
Euro 2024 Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold to give most assists for England at +800.
