Let’s look at my Euro 2024 soccer best bets for Game 3 of the Group Stage.
France vs. Poland
Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. ET
France are still joint favorites (with Germany +400) to win the tournament, yet we are still waiting for them to spark into life. A 0-0 draw with the Netherlands actually places them second in Group D on goal difference.
Didier Deschamps knows his side will top the group if they win and better the Netherlands result against Austria. However, if both win, they will be split for first place by overall goal difference, then overall goals scored. The winner of this group has a much more favorable route deep into the competition.
This means the French will want to beat Poland comprehensively and score as many goals as possible. The good news for them is that they face a side that was the first to be eliminated from the competition after defeats of 2-1 and 3-1 to the Netherlands and Austria, respectively.
The big injury news of the tournament has centered around Kylian Mbappe and his broken nose, which kept him out of the draw against the Dutch. I am certain we will see him in some capacity here in Dortmund.
Excluding penalty shootouts France are unbeaten in their last 14 competitive fixtures winning 11 and by an aggregate score of 39-7. That run started with a 3-1 victory against Poland in the first group game of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
They will have far too much for a Poland side I faded at the start of the competition and have seen nothing to change my mind.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: France -1.5 Asian Handicap at -112.
Denmark vs. Serbia
Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Everything is up for grabs in Group C with all four sides able to qualify and three nations in with a chance of finishing top. Denmark needs a win here to be sure of grabbing a place in the last 16 while a win for Serbia will likely mean they will also prolong their stay in the tournament.
However, my attention is not on who will win or lose or even who will qualify. Instead, I am drawn to the cards/bookings market here, mainly because Dragan Stojkovic’s side is involved.
Serbia’s Euro 2024 campaign so far has mirrored their effort at the last World Cup in Qatar. In 2022, they started with a creditable loss to one of the tournament favorites, Brazil, followed by a draw with an outsider in Cameroon, and then lost by the odd goal in a five-goal thriller final match.
A 1-0 defeat to England and 1-1 draw with Slovenia sets them up for another final game shootout with the easy-going laid-back Danes offering similar opponents as the mild-mannered Swiss.
What caught my eye was the card action in that game against Switzerland. With the match locked at 2-2, Serbia had not seen any players booked. A minute before the Swiss took a decisive 3-2 lead, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic picked up a yellow card. What followed was chaos.
The Serbs had a further five players booked in the final 30 minutes in a game, which ended with TEN yellow cards shown. As they looked to be crashing out of this tournament when trailing Slovenia 1-0, Serbia had two players booked in stoppage time, making a total of four in a game that saw six yellow cards brandished.
After the first two rounds of fixtures, only Austria has had more players booked than Serbia’s six. Given the do-or-die nature of this fixture, I see a similar pattern to that final group game of the World Cup campaign. The line is set at 4.5 here, and it would not surprise me to see Stojkovic’s men cover this on their own.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Over 4.5 cards at +100.
England vs. Slovenia
Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
OK, so as I have mentioned before, I am a passionate England supporter. Am I backing my side to win this out of pure loyalty and bias? Not a chance!
Let’s make no doubt about it: England stunk the place out with a pathetic no-show against Denmark. They were lucky to draw, but the point they picked up sees them sit on top of the group, meaning their fate remains in their own hands.
That is crucial as the runner up in this group will face Germany next. No thank you! The winners will play a third-place team in the Round of 16 and then what is likely to be either Italy or Croatia in the quarter final.
That makes this a must-win fixture for Gareth Southgate, not only for his side’s prospects in the tournament but also for his own reputation. Expect a changed side with more balance and more than enough quality to beat a side ranked 52 places below them by FIFA.
The Three Lions have been here before. Very rarely do they qualify from their group at a major tournament after winning the first two games. In fact, only once has that happened since 2010 and they lost the third game 1-0 to Belgium.
That goal is the only goal conceded in the seven final group games across that time frame. England have won four of those fixtures, beating Wales 3-0 in the last major tournament, and started the run with a 1-0 victory over their opponents here.
For all their faults in the opening two games England kept a clean sheet against Serbia and only conceded a 30-yard wonder strike against the Danes. Slovenia has to bounce back from the exertions of that draw against the Serbs. They will be physically and emotionally drained having conceded with the last kick of the game.
England will get the job done here, sealing top spot with a win and keeping a clean sheet in their usual style. That is why a win to nil looks huge value. Incidentally, it’s the same bet as backing England to win and under 0.5 Slovenia goals in a same-game parlay.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: England to win to nil at -113.
