French Open Best Bets: Early Picks and Predictions
Zachary Cohen’s Best Bets
Iga Swiatek To Win (-110 – 2.5 units)
I gave out Swiatek to win the French Open on the VSiN Pro Picks page last weekend, and I’m going pretty big on it. Unfortunately, you won’t be able to find a -110 after she steamrolled Aryna Sabalenka in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia final. However, I think this is a play that’s good up to -150.
It’s just really hard to imagine anybody but Sabalenka powering through Swiatek in Paris. Beating the Pole at Roland Garros is like beating The Undertaker at WrestleMania. It doesn’t happen.
Swiatek and Sabalenka will also be on opposite sides of the draw, so there’s a decent chance she isn’t tested until the final day of the tournament. At that point, you’d be kicking yourself for not grabbing Swiatek at her pre-tournament odds. Also, she was as high as a -400 favorite against Sabalenka in Rome, so you should be able to hedge for guaranteed profits as long as Swiatek just gets there. And if she faces anybody outside of Sabalenka, you’re looking at some crazy lopsided odds. The -400 also tells you what the oddsmakers think of Swiatek. She was given an 80.0% implied probability to beat the second-best player in tennis. That alone tells a story.
Let’s hope that Jelena Ostapenko is nowhere near Swiatek in the draw. She has weirdly had Swiatek’s number in the past.
Jannik Sinner To Win (+400)
I took Sinner to win at +450 odds a couple of weeks ago, so I’d feel bad completely ignoring the fact that I have it. Of course, with Sinner’s status being a question mark heading into this tournament, things aren’t looking all that great. However, Sinner has been the best player in the world this year, by far. So, the fact he’s out there at +400 right now is a little interesting.
With Sinner teasing the possibility of playing on social media, it might make sense to throw a little something on him at these odds. I highly doubt he’ll even take the court if he isn’t comfortable with how his hip is feeling. So, maybe he withdraws before a single ball is hit and your bet gets voided (check the rules at whatever sportsbook you’re using). But maybe he ends up going out there and you have a great number on an elite player. As far as I’m concerned, he’s the player to beat if he’s out there.
Casper Ruud To WIn (+1200)
Nobody on the planet has won more matches on clay than Ruud over the last 52 weeks. He’s 25-7 in that span and he won a title in Barcelona in April (the biggest win of his career). Ruud is just a very sturdy player, and he has improved drastically since 2023. The Norwegian has increased his willingness to go big from the baseline, taking more chances — especially from the forehand side. Ruud has also made some real improvements as both a server and a defender. All of that makes him tempting as a pick to win the French Open.
Ruud has made it to back-to-back finals at Roland Garros, but he was unable to overcome Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in those matches. Well, neither player is in the type of condition that should scare Ruud at this point, especially with the Norwegian having defeated Djokovic on his way to making the Monte Carlo final.
Ruud is also fourth in the field on clay when it comes to Performance Rating in 2024, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. All in all, I think he’s a good value play at his current number, especially considering he rarely gets bounced early in tournaments — at least ones that aren’t played on grass.
Gill Alexander’s Best Bets
Women:
It’s very rare in sports betting when one can confidently take a stand on a favorite without fear of looking foolish. But, as trumpeted on ANG since 2020 — with some bets more famous than others — Iga Swiatek on clay, and specifically on the red clay of Roland Garros, is about as sure of a thing in sports as one is likely to have. Think Rafael Nadal at a similar stage in his career. Swiatek is seeking her fourth French Open singles title, her fifth Slam overall, and her 22nd singles title, all as the world No. 1 turns 23 years old during Round 3 of this tournament. (Rafa, to be fair, was busy winning his fourth title at Roland Garros just after his 22nd birthday.)
Her raw data of 115.0/113.9 (1 year/6 months) when it comes to her combined service and return points won on clay is consistent with her level on this surface from even before her ascension to the main tour and is nothing short of the stuff of legend. For context, world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, who Swiatek just dispatched in consecutive clay finals at Madrid and Rome, boasts an otherwise formidable 105.4/104.9 on this surface, numbers that would be taken seriously only in a clay tennis world where Iga didn’t exist.
I bet Swiatek ML at -116 to win the French Open some time ago and am seeing it as high as -147 now so I’m contractually obligated not to recommend that. But let’s just put it this way: if you did bet it, no one would laugh at you.
Men:
On the other hand, there’s the men’s side of things. For years pre-Swiatek/Sabalenka/Rybakina, tennis handicappers rightfully viewed women’s Slams as largely a free-for-all when projecting a winner while the Federer/Nadal/Djokovic Big Three got the top-heavy distinction on the men’s side. I don’t believe we’re at a free-for-all era on the ATP Tour, but we certainly are at this specific moment in time headed into Paris.
Nadal, the 14-time champ at Roland Garros, says he feels fine and will travel to Paris in hopes of playing in the tournament. Even if he does avoid any hiccups in training and is able to go, after a fourth-round loss to Jiri Lehecka in Madrid, one wonders what realistic level he can achieve in what most speculate will be his last appearance at the French.
Carlos Alcaraz, who revealed that he developed “muscle edema in his pronator teres”, a consequence of a recent arm injury, pulled out of the Italian Open in Rome to get healthy for the clay Slam in Paris. What we can expect from Carlitos is anyone’s guess.
Then there’s the unassailable best player on the ATP Tour in the calendar year of 2024, Jannik Sinner, whose hip injury causes more concern than any injury in tennis right now. It is the view of many that Sinner would do better to think much more long term than simply the horizon of this one Slam when it comes to his overall health and that rest and only rest ought to be his North Star right now.
Finally, what of defending Roland Garros champion, Novak Djokovic, who had a fan’s water bottle hit him on his head, promptly followed by one of the most uneven performances of Djokovic’s career, a 68-minute 6-2, 6-3 drubbing at the hands of Alejandro Tabilo in Rome.
Thus, the smattering of quiniela bets for this tournament, all anchored by Swiatek on the ladies’ side. I have no interest in the great Nadal at this stage of his career, clay or not, nor do I trust that Sinner hip. But I can absolutely see either, or both, of Alcaraz and Djokovic showing up as if it’s business as usual. And just in case I turn out to be overconfident about even their prognoses, I sprinkled some Swiatek with Casper Ruud, runner-up at the last two French Opens, and someone who the red clay of Roland Garros suits spectacularly, as well.
ALL BETS
Iga Swiatek To Win (-116)
PARLAY: Iga Swiatek To Win/Carlos Alcaraz To Win (+450)
PARLAY: Iga Swiatek To Win/Novak Djokovic To Win (+500)
PARLAY: Iga Swiatek To Win/Casper Ruud To Win (+2000)
