French Open: Men’s Betting Favorites
Here are the men’s betting favorites for the 2024 French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz (+230)
Alcaraz is dealing with a pretty significant forearm injury right now. The Spaniard had to skip the Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo, didn’t attempt to defend his 500-level title in Barcelona and then lost to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals in Madrid. Alcaraz also noted that he dealt with discomfort in Madrid, where he clearly pushed himself to compete in front of his family and friends. But the injury forced him to shut it down for Rome, and most of the recent footage of Alcaraz has featured the 21-year-old practicing without a racquet.
If there wasn’t any uncertainty surrounding Alcaraz heading into the tournament, he’d be a heavier favorite to win. Alcaraz has felt destined for a French Open title since he burst onto the scene a couple of years ago. He has the ability to hit a heavy topspin forehand, much like Rafael Nadal does. That’s an extremely valuable asset on this surface. Alcaraz also has blazing all-court speed, so he’s capable of tracking down any shot on a slower court. And the two-time Grand Slam champion can do a lot of things once he gets to the ball. He has massive power from the forehand and backhand wings, and he also possesses one of the best drop shots on tour.
The clay-court season also does a good job of masking one of Alcaraz’s only weaknesses: his serve. He’s able to do more damage with a kick serve here than he is elsewhere, especially on his second serve. In fact, his serve-and-volley game is extremely potent when it’s bouncing higher and wider. Also, Alcaraz is one of the best returners on the planet. So, he’s capable of taking advantage as the dirt drives his opponents crazy when it’s their turn to serve.
Alcaraz also looked unbeatable before facing Novak Djokovic in the 2023 final, and we all know he struggled physically and mentally in that match. But Alcaraz ended up beating Djokovic in the Wimbledon final shortly after, and we haven’t seen him pressing too much since. So, if he is able to stay healthy throughout this event, the moment shouldn’t get too big for him. You have to decide whether or not you’re willing to back a rusty Alcaraz without knowing the state of his right arm. That’s pretty risky with a right-handed player.
Novak Djokovic (+300)
Djokovic isn’t dealing with any injuries we know about, but he is certainly lacking in confidence right now. Djokovic is just 12-5 since the start of the 2024 season, and the 24-time Grand Slam champion hasn’t won a single event. Djokovic has also seen his hold percentage drop from 88.9% in 2023 to 83.1% in 2024, which is especially alarming when considering he parted ways with coach Goran Ivanisevic in March. Ivanisevic has been credited with taking Djokovic’s serve to the next level.
Djokovic is so unsure of his game that he entered a 250-level tournament in Geneva before the French Open, as he wanted to spend some more time on the court. That’s not exactly what you want when backing somebody at these odds, but perhaps it’ll be exactly what Djokovic needs to get himself going and contend for his 25th Grand Slam title.
If one thing’s for sure, doubting Djokovic is a risky proposition at a major. Losses to Luca Nardi and Alejandro Tabilo might be hard to ignore, but the fact that Djokovic is healthy while all of his peers are banged up has to count for something. Djokovic has also proven time and time again that he is capable of flipping the switch. That won’t be any different at Roland Garros, where Djokovic has proven to be one of the best clay-court players in the history of the sport.
We have never seen a player defend the baseline like Djokovic, and his ability to serve and return has always made for a great transition to clay. So, if he can find his groove with the ball on his racquet, he might be able to make some things happen.
Jannik Sinner (+400)
Sinner has been the best player in the world since the start of the 2024 season. And the reality is that it really isn’t even close. The Italian won his first major at the Australian Open, defeating Novak Djokovic in the semifinals and coming back from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev in the final. Sinner is 28-3 since the start of 2024. He’s also first in the world in hold percentage (92.9%), which is crazy considering he’s also third in break percentage (31.6%).
According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Sinner’s Performance Rating is the highest of any player in the world this year. That’s a catch-all metric that takes into account every aspect of the sport (kind of like QBR for a quarterback). And his Performance Rating is also the highest on clay, even though he didn’t play many matches on it. Sinner’s Shot Quality from the forehand and backhand wings was also the highest amongst top-30 players on the surface.
You might wonder why a player like that is available at such favorable odds. Well, not only is Sinner a little unproven in Paris, but his status for this tournament is legitimately in question. The 22-year-old is dealing with a hip injury right now, and it was serious enough to prevent him from playing his home Masters in Rome. Sinner has since been advised to rest his hip in order to prevent the injury from becoming chronic. So, there’s a decent shot he takes a long-term view and skips the French Open so he can win more tournaments later in the year. If he does, it’d be hard to blame him.
It should, however, be noted that Sinner’s coach, Darren Cahill, is in Paris. Sinner has also posted himself on Instagram practicing on clay, and the caption definitely hinted that he’s considering giving it a go.
Alexander Zverev (+800)
There isn’t a player in the draw who enters this tournament with a better combination of health and form. Zverev, who has always been tremendous on the dirt, just won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the second time in his career. Along the way, Zverev earned wins over in-form versions of Taylor Fritz and Nicolas Jarry. He also outlasted a red-hot Alejandro Tabilo, who knocked out Novak Djokovic earlier in the tournament.
Zverev is just a fantastic player on slower clay courts, as he has a big enough serve to overcome the conditions and rack up holds. His forehand, which is normally a bit of a weakness, is also a little more dangerous in this type of event. Zverev is capable of hitting with shape, putting topspin-heavy shots deep in the court. That’s something you want in your arsenal in Paris. He has also shown a bit more of a willingness to flatten it out on this surface. That gives him some much-needed balance, as opponents generally try to avoid Zverev’s world-class backhand. He needs to be able to punish them from both wings.
It’s also just easy to forget that Zverev was pushing Rafael Nadal in the French Open semifinals in 2022, but that was the match in which the German tore up his ankle ligaments. Well, Zverev is finally getting back to playing that same level of tennis, and his Performance Rating on clay backs it up. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Zverev ranked third in the field in that metric when it comes to clay this season. That said, he’s a player that should be taken very seriously over the next few weeks.
