On Sunday, June 9th, we’re going to be treated to a French Open final between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev booked his spot in this match by defeating Casper Ruud in four sets, while Alcaraz emerged from a tight five-set match against rival Jannik Sinner. Both of these players now enter this match in great form, meaning there should be some high-quality tennis throughout this one. Zverev actually beat Alcaraz in four sets at the Australian Open in January, but the Spaniard bounced back by beating the German to a pulp at Indian Wells. With that in mind, this is going to be an interesting match to dissect. Keep reading for my Zverev versus Alcaraz analysis. Also, make sure you check out the Pro Picks page, where I’m posting a bunch of other picks.
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Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
(Odds accurate as of 6:30 pm EST on Friday, June 7th)
Moneyline: Alcaraz -285, Zverev +225
Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-125), Zverev +4.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 38.5 Games (-120), Under 38.5 Games (-120)
Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Zverev is 2-1 against Alcaraz in their head-to-head history at Grand Slams. That all started with a win for Zverev at Roland Garros in 2022, when the German was playing some of the best tennis of his life. He later tore his ankle in a match against Rafael Nadal, and that set him back in a big way. Alcaraz won the second major meeting between them, earning a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 win at the 2023 US Open. Then, as previously mentioned, Zverev got Alcaraz at the Australian Open.
This is not a matchup that Zverev fears. A lot of players get tense playing against a shotmaker like Alcaraz, but that’s not the case with the German. The problem is that Alcaraz really can beat up on Zverev if he just plays the right way. In Melbourne, Alcaraz got impatient with Zverev’s baseline pushing, causing the Spaniard to go bigger than he needed to. That led to a lot of unforced errors. Zverev also played effective quick-strike tennis in the speedy conditions. But Alcaraz could have done a lot of damage by extending rallies and targeting the Zverev forehand, which is extremely leaky and rarely ever comes back with pace. Well, Alcaraz did exactly that when the two met at Indian Wells, and he ultimately won that match 6-3, 6-1 in a little over an hour. Not only did Alcaraz pepper that side of the court, but he also looked a lot sharper in the slower conditions in the desert. And that’s hard to ignore when considering how similar these conditions are, even though this is a clay-court tournament.
I just don’t like the matchup for Zverev on a slower court, as I don’t think he has the baseline weaponry required to consistently get the ball by Alcaraz. The Spaniard also happens to have a huge edge when it comes to variety, so look for him to pull out all the stops here. He’ll hit with topspin on some shots, but he’ll also flatten things out on others. Alcaraz will also mix in the drop shot to keep Zverev guessing. And if that’s not enough, there’s also the fact that these slower courts make things tougher on Zverev as a server. The German is one of the best servers on the planet, but Alcaraz is one of the best returners and these conditions only help him. So, Zverev’s serve might not give him the edge he usually has over opponents.
I also liked what I saw on Alcaraz’s serve in the semifinals. The Spaniard has made some slight tweaks to his service motion, and he’s looking a lot more dangerous with the ball on his racquet. Sure, he had a little trouble holding early in that match, but he figured it out late and he never looked back. And Zverev isn’t nearly as good as Sinner when it comes to returning, so Alcaraz should be able to pick up some quick holds in this match.
We have been talking about Alcaraz as a French Open champion for years, expecting the young phenom to take Rafael Nadal’s torch and become the new King of Clay. And while he has a lot of work to do before we start calling him that, I do think we’re going to see the Spaniard win his first title in Paris. And I would be surprised if Alcaraz doesn’t get the job done in four or less sets. Realistically, the only thing that I’m worried about is Alcaraz’s health. He was banged up heading into the tournament, and he was wearing a lot of kinesiology tape in the semifinals. But Alcaraz has looked like himself throughout the course of this event, so I’m just going to trust my eyes and hope for the best.
Bet: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-125 – 2 units)
