On Saturday, June 8th, Jasmine Paolini will attempt to dethrone Iga Swiatek in the French Open final. Swiatek has won this event in back-to-back years, and she also won it in 2020. On top of that, Swiatek is going for her fifth Grand Slam. The Pole is the most dominant player in tennis right now, and she’s at her very best on the slower clay courts in Paris. That’s why Swiatek is currently the biggest recorded betting favorite in major final history, at least as far back as Sports Odds History‘s database goes. With that in mind, this is going to be a tough match to bet. But keep reading for some Paolini versus Swiatek analysis.
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Jasmine Paolini vs. Iga Swiatek Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 11:00 am EST on Friday, June 7th)
Moneyline: Swiatek -1400, Paolini +900
Spread: Swiatek -6.5 Games (-140), Paolini +6.5 Games (+115)
Total: Over 17.5 (+100), Under 17.5 (-120)
Jasmine Paolini vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction
If you read my French Open preview or listened to any of my spots on VSiN programming, you should be holding a Swiatek futures ticket at a very reasonable price right now. If that’s the case, you really shouldn’t be touching this match. And if you are, it should be the tiniest hedge imaginable on Paolini. Don’t sacrifice a substantial portion of your potential winnings. However, people are understandably going to want to bet on a standalone final. With that in mind, I found a prop on DraftKings Sportsbook that isn’t too bad. The play calls for Swiatek to win the first set and serve more aces than Paolini over the course of the match.
I’m really not all that concerned about the first portion of the bet. Swiatek really should win this match in straight sets. Paolini is a baseline grinder that tries to outlast opponents, and she can occasionally go big from the forehand side. But Swiatek grinds at a higher level than anybody on the planet, so she’ll be just fine exchanging in long rallies. And Swiatek’s normal strokes are just a lot heavier than Paolini’s, so more errors should come from the Italian’s side. Swiatek is also a good enough defender to get Paolini’s forehands back. On top of that, Swiatek is the best returner in the world right now, so she should punish the weak Paolini serve.
The second part of the bet is a little tougher. Swiatek doesn’t rack up aces or anything, so there’s no guarantee she’ll hit a ton in this match. But she does have a higher ace percentage than Paolini this season, and she has also hit more aces than the Italian in this tournament. Also, if Swiatek is able to serve down the T or get her serves out wide, Paolini’s 5-foot-4 height and overall lack of length might make it hard for her to get a racquet on the ball — especially if the Pole gets a lot of spin on the serves.
I know this isn’t the most exciting breakdown in the world, and it’s usually fun to be on a side or total in a final. But this is one of the most lopsided matchups we’ve seen in a big match, so it’s hard to traditionally handicap it. In fact, I don’t think it’s worth betting anything here. I’d just suggest watching and appreciating Swiatek’s greatness. There will be plenty of tennis to bet on in the coming weeks, so there’s no need to force anything.
IF YOU MUST: Swiatek To Win Set 1 + Record More Aces in The Match (+140)
