French Open: Women’s Betting Favorites
Here are the women’s betting favorites for the 2024 French Open
Iga Swiatek (-125)
Not only is Swiatek, a four-time French Open champion, 77-10 on clay at the WTA level and 28-2 at Roland Garros, but her overall game has gone to new heights in 2024. After beating Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, Swiatek is now 38-4 on the season. That’s good for a career-high winning percentage of 90.5%, and her hold percentage is a career-high 83.3%. The latter is scary, considering Swiatek’s serve has been exploitable in the past. The better she gets with it, the more unbeatable she’ll be.
On clay, there’s not much you can do to make the Pole uncomfortable. There’s some Novak Djokovic to Swiatek in the way she wins ugly, but there’s also a Rafael Nadal-like inevitability. It’s not always clear how she’s going to do it, but you know she will find a way.
Swiatek’s ability to defend the baseline is in a league of its own on this surface, and it goes to another level on Court Philippe-Chatrier. It’s simply hard to get the ball by Swiatek, who is also remarkable at turning defense into offense. Her big, heavy forehand is a huge weapon on this surface, especially with the topspin she gets on it. Clay also allows for Swiatek to have off days with the forehand, which does tend to happen with her. If she’s not able to hit those for winners, she can just focus on finding the court and outlasting her opponents. Meanwhile, her backhand is always reliable.
It’s not often you see a player dominate a single tournament like this, but Swiatek’s reign at Roland Garros likely isn’t ending anytime soon. The title in Madrid was the start of it. The altitude there makes the conditions difficult for her, but she was able to win anyway. And she only gets stronger as the clay-court season progresses, as Rome and Roland Garros both play extremely slow. This is the best player in the world in the best setting imaginable.
Aryna Sabalenka (+600)
Sabalenka is pretty clearly the second-best clay-court player in the world, and she continues to make strides on this surface. Sabalenka’s career clay-court winning percentage is 69.7% at the WTA level, but it’s up at 76.2% over the last 52 weeks. The Belarusian has gotten stronger as a server, and her movement continues to get better and better. When you combine that with her raw power from the baseline, you’re talking about somebody who is very difficult to beat on a slower court. She’s one of the few players in the world with the ability to hammer winners through slow conditions, and the court speeds make her better than she normally is defensively.
The problem with backing Sabalenka to win at Roland Garros is the mere existence of Swiatek. The Pole’s win over Sabalenka in Madrid was especially troubling, as those faster conditions were supposed to give the Belarusian an edge. But Swiatek found a way to emerge in an epic three-set match there, and she then beat up on Sabalenka in a 6-2, 6-3 win in the Rome final. Considering those conditions match what we’ll see at Roland Garros, it’s hard to believe in Sabalenka. Swiatek is also 5-1 against Sabalenka in clay-court tournaments, and the one loss was in Madrid. So, we haven’t seen the Belarusian take down Swiatek in a tournament like this one. But she still offers a better chance than anyone else.
Coco Gauff (+850)
Gauff has had some ups and downs throughout the 2024 season. The American did make a run to the Australian Open semifinals, and her 25-8 record sure is impressive. But Gauff’s hold percentage is down from 73.4% in 2023 to 69.9% in 2024. She has also seen her double-fault percentage go up from 5.1% last year to 8.9% this year. That slight dip in the serving department has made it hard for Gauff to win big matches, especially considering her inconsistency from the forehand side. But you can never rule out a Gauff run at a major, especially on a surface that suits her game nicely.
Gauff’s clay-court winning percentage at the WTA level is 71.2%, which is higher than it is on any other surface. And it isn’t hard to figure out why. Gauff is already one of the top returners in the world, and returning only gets easier on slower courts. On top of that, the slow courts give Gauff more time to load up and hit her forehand. So, her biggest weakness isn’t as big of a problem on the dirt. And she’s always capable of ripping her backhand, which is one of the best shots in the women’s game.
The American is also coming into this tournament after having played an excellent match against Swiatek, losing 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals in Rome. That was a battle that was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. So, Gauff should head to Paris with her head held high, and she’ll feel good about her chances of beating anyone. She just needs to keep it together from the forehand side, while also avoiding giving her opponents free points on her serve.
Elena Rybakina (+900)
After a tough 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (5) loss to Sabalenka in the Madrid semifinals, Rybakina withdrew from the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. It was a shame, considering she was the defending champion in Rome, but Rybakina was only dealing with an illness. So, she should be ready to go when she arrives in Paris.
Rybakina won a title at Stuttgart in April, going through Veronika Kudermetova, Jasmine Paolini, Swiatek and Marta Kostyuk. The win over Swiatek was especially impressive, and the fact that she followed it up with a good showing in Madrid was nice. But those were two of the faster clay-court events of the season, and the slower conditions in Paris will make life tougher on Rybakina. Her biggest strengths are her ability to serve and go big from the baseline, but those are neutralized a bit by the court speeds. Rybakina also leaves a bit to be desired as an overall mover and baseliner on this surface.
All in all, Rybakina’s serve gives her a shot in any given tournament. But there’s a reason her career-best result at the French Open was a quarter-final run in 2021.
