Nitto ATP Finals tennis best bets: Zverev vs. Alcaraz, Rublev vs. Medvedev – Monday, November 13
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Nitto ATP Finals should help us go out with a bang. Eight of the ATP Tour’s top players are in Turin, Italy for this year-end event, including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. The players are split into two groups of four, and there will be round-robin play amongst the two of them. The players with the two best records in each group will go to the semifinals, where they’ll then compete in a single-elimination format for the final big prize of the year. With that in mind, I’ll be providing you with daily tennis bets for the next week, and that continues with two plays on Monday, November 13.
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Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I had Zverev as a pick to win this group at +500 odds, but I am aware it’s something of a long shot. And I mostly put that bet in because I think Zverev can handle his business against Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev. However, as far as this matchup goes, it’s hard to lay off Alcaraz as a small favorite on the game spread. Alcaraz has won each of the last two meetings between these two in straight sets, and all five of the sets they have played have been decided by at least two games. We haven’t seen any signs of life from Zverev in this matchup, so I like Alcaraz’s chances of covering 2.5 games in this matchup. Alcaraz hasn’t played great tennis coming into this event, but it’s not like Zverev has either. And overall, I just think the Spaniard will get some chances to break in this spot. Also, the bright side of a match like this is that if Zverev somehow does win, we’ll at least be in good shape with the futures bet.
Bet: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-130)
Andrey Rublev vs. Daniil Medvedev
This is another match in which the game spread just feels a little too small. Medvedev has absolutely dominated Rublev in their head-to-head history, with the most recent encounter ending in a straight-set win for the world No. 3 at the US Open. That was a match in which Rublev had quite a few openings, but Medvedev battled back and took control of the match every time he fell behind. Rublev will likely still feel decent about his chances in this match because his power from the baseline will be a factor in an indoor hard-court match. But Medvedev is still one of the best returners in the sport, so he should give Rublev trouble when the world No. 5 is serving. And Medvedev’s serve, which is pretty underrated at this point, will be an even bigger weapon on faster courts. So, I think he’ll win this one rather easily, even if it does go to a deciding third set. Medvedev could easily win a lopsided set in this one.
Bet: Medvedev -2.5 Games (-120 – 2 units)
2023 Overall Record: 313-283 (+58.91 units)
