The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That begins with my Day 1 tennis predictions and best bets for Monday, October 28th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 810-802 (+30.60 units)
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Tomas Machac
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ugo Humbert
I’m not thrilled with the Day 1 options on the board, so I’m putting together a two-leg parlay. The first player I’m leaning on is Machac, who has been as good as anyone in recent weeks. Towards the end of September, Machac made a run to the semifinals in Tokyo. On the way, he earned wins over Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen. Machac followed that up with a run to the final at the Shanghai Masters, beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz. He also put up a real fight against Jannik Sinner in the final.
Machac has just been serving very well, and his baseline game is tremendous — specifically his down-the-line backhand. With that in mind, it’d be a bit of a surprise if he can’t find a way to beat Rinderknech. While Rinderknech will have the crowd in his corner, that’s really all he’ll have. Rinderknech is a pretty good server, but Machac has him beat everywhere else. Rinderknech also happens to be playing poorly coming into this, as he has lost three of his last four matches. The only concern here is that Machac has had some health concerns lately. But if he’s not pulling out of the event, there’s no reason not to use him in some parlays.
As far as the next match goes, I’m just not even sure why Humbert is such a big moneyline favorite. There really isn’t much that separates these two, and both players have the ability to play some great tennis in an indoor hard-court match. These are two players with huge serves and powerful baseline games, and I don’t see either one of them winning in straights. But Nakashima has a higher hold percentage (88.1%) this year, and he also has an edge in recent form. So, I’m taking Nakashima to win a set in a match that could feature some tiebreakers. It also doesn’t hurt that French players tend to struggle at the Rolex Paris Masters, and that’s especially true of ones with big expectations. There is pressure on these guys to perform. Nakashima won’t be feeling any of that.
PARLAY: Machac ML & Nakashima +1.5 Sets (-101 – 1.5 units)
Rolex Paris Masters Futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win (+210 – 2 units): Alcaraz isn’t the player you think of when it comes to an indoor hard-court event, but this one plays a touch slower than others. So, he should be able to play his game this week. And the reality is that he might not even need to play his best tennis in order to reach the final. His half of the draw is a lot weaker than Sinner’s. And the only player that I really think can beat Alcaraz before the final is Grigor Dimitrov, who I’m backing anyway. That said, I’m putting two units on the best player in the world.
Grigor Dimitrov To Win (37-1 – 0.5 units): As I just mentioned, Dimitrov is the only player that I really think can beat Alcaraz in the bottom half of the draw. Dimitrov is just an awesome player in these conditions, as he’s a great server, has a booming forehand and can keep opponents on their toes with the different ways he can hit the backhand. Dimitrov was actually a finalist here last year, and he made the semis back in 2019. The Bulgarian also happens to have a reasonable draw up until a potential showdown with Alcaraz. And if I have both at that point, I’ll be extremely happy.
Added Plays
Fabio Fognini +1.5 Sets (-161) vs. Alexander Bublik
Nicolas Jarry ML (+149) vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Adrian Mannarino +6.5 Games (-242) vs. Tommy Paul
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
