The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my tennis predictions and best bets for Thursday, October 31st. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 818-806 (+35.80 units)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
These two clashed in Basel last week and Tsitsipas emerged with a 6-3, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (4) victory in two hours and 34 minutes. However, Tsitsipas really should have won the match in straight sets. After winning the first set, Tsitsipas broke Cerundolo to start the second set. But the Greek star lost his focus when serving up 4-3, allowing Cerundolo to break back and get his foot in the door. Cerundolo ended up stealing that set and almost won the match. This time around, I don’t think Tsitsipas will take his foot off the gas. And the conditions could also suit him a little better.
While Tsitsipas has had an up-and-down season — and has really been disappointing for nearly two years now — he is still an elite server. Over the last 52 weeks, Tsitsipas’ hold percentage is 86.4%. That’s not quite as high as it was when he was at the peak of his powers, but he’s still capable of blasting serves and hitting his spots. And on these quick, low-bouncing courts, it should be impossible to break him. And that’s why I don’t really believe in Cerundolo in this spot. He is not a player that takes advantage of opportunities, so he might not break through even if Tsitsipas gives him some chances.
On the flip side of that, Cerundolo is holding just 77.0% of the time over the last 52 weeks, and he tends to throw in a poor service game or two every set. So, even though Tsitsipas isn’t much of a returner, he should be able to break through and make the most of some return games.
I’m not sure Tsitsipas will get the job done in straight sets here, but I think he has a lopsided set in him. That should be enough if he ends up winning the match, which I definitely think he will. Cerundolo has plenty of weapons from the baseline, but Tsitsipas’ forehand will be the biggest one on the court.
Bet: Tsitsipas -2.5 Games (-120)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Karen Khachanov
I thought Khachanov would run out of steam against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and I’m still nervous that fatigue will be a factor sooner or later. But the Russian is just playing so well right now, as he’s serving at an elite level and also returning very well. Mpetshi Perricard had gone seven matches in a row without being broken, but Khachanov broke him three times on Wednesday. Well, that match was great preparation for a meeting with Popyrin, who is another big server with a shaky baseline game. Sure, Popyrin is much better from the baseline than Mpetshi Perricard is, but he’s not a better player from back there than Khachanov. So, if Khachanov can just avoid loose service games, he should win this match.
Khachanov is also 3-1 against Popyrin in his career. One of those wins came in early 2024, when Khachanov was playing miserable tennis. Now that the Russian is back on his game, I can’t see him letting this one slip away. A lot of players start to slow down at this time of the year, but Khachanov is trying to keep himself going so that he can enter 2025 with momentum.
I know Popyrin earned some big wins over Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev earlier in this event, but this will be a whole different animal. Over the last two weeks, Khachanov has looked like a combination of both of those guys.
Bet: Khachanov ML (-133 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
