The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my Day 2 tennis predictions and best bets for Tuesday, October 29th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 813-805 (+30.19 units)
Marin Cilic vs. Arthur Fils
Fils has been one of the best players in tennis over the last couple of weeks. The young Frenchman won a title in Tokyo towards the end of September, beating Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Ben Shelotn, Holger Rune and Ugo Humbert. He also played some good tennis in Basel, where he earned an impressive straight-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. This has just been a nice stretch for a player that has a world of potential, and Fils is understandably a big favorite against Cilic in Paris. Fils has a lot of weapons that make him dangerous in an indoor hard-court setting, and the fans will desperately want him to get through. But that doesn’t mean Fils will win this in a straightforward way.
Cilic has quietly played some good tennis himself lately, as he won a hard-court title in Hangzhou in September. Cilic beat Brandon Nakashima and Zhizhen Zhang on his way to winning that trophy. That was big for a player that is coming off a lengthy injury layoff. Cilic also played really well in a straight-set loss to Alejandro Tabilo in Basel, as he led 5-3 in both sets and just couldn’t get the job done. But overall, this is still a player that has a chance in any match he plays, as he has a big serve and can crush the ball from the forehand side.
The serve is the big thing here. It’s hard for a match to go Under the total when both players are winning easy points, and I think that’s what we’ll see here. I’d actually be shocked if we don’t see at least one tiebreaker in this match, and that’s ultimately why I’m going Over 21.5 games. If there’s a tiebreaker, the other set just needs to be 6-3 in order for this to cash. Well, Cilic has played 10 tiebreakers in his last 16 matches, and Fils has played 15 in his last 18 matches.
Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-140)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Frances Tiafoe
Just a few days ago, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won the first hard-court title of his career, as he earned a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over Shelton in the Basel final. But don’t be surprised if it’s the first of many. Mpetshi Perricard’s run also included wins over Felix Auger Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov and Rune. All of those guys are dangerous hard-court players — especially indoors. But the reality is that Mpetshi Perricard is holding at an 88.7% clip this season, and he might have the best serve on the planet right now. In fact, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations gave him a Shot Quality of 9.8 out of 10 for the tournament last week. That weapon can be absolutely untouchable, and that’s why I find it hard to believe he’ll lose to Tiafoe in straight sets here.
I understand Mpetshi Perricard is in a prime letdown spot, as he just won the biggest title of his career and it can be hard to get your energy up after that. But Mpetshi Perricard’s calling card is his monstrous serve, and he should be able to rack up easy points whether he’s into this or not. Also, I can’t imagine it’ll take him long to get fired up for this match. After all, he’s a Frenchman and will be playing in front of a raucous crowd. The fans should be able to give him all the energy he needs to make this a match — if not win it.
It’s just hard to wipe the court with somebody that has a better serve than you. And while Tiafoe’s serve is good, he’s holding at just 83.7% this year. That pales in comparison to Mpetshi Perricard’s hold percentage. Also, Tiafoe might have a massive edge when it comes to baseline play, but he has had an up-and-down 2024 season. The American also comes into this match after having lost four of his last seven.
Realistically, I’d give Tiafoe a shot at winning in straights if this match was being played in the United States. Tiafoe is a different player on home soil. But as of right now, I’m having a very hard time laying off Mpetshi Perricard — even with some significant juice.
Bet: Mpetshi Perricard +1.5 Sets (-179 – 1.5 units)
Jordan Thompson vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud is a much better player than Thompson. The Norwegian is a top-10 player in the ATP rankings for a reason, and his 2024 season has been a lot better than he has gotten credit for. However, when Ruud is struggling, he’s extremely beatable. And this match is being played in the middle of a Ruud rough-patch.
Ruud has lost seven of his last nine matches, and one of those was a straight-set loss to Thompson. And Thompson is now 2-1 against Ruud in 2024, and the one loss was on clay — which is the Norwegian’s best surface, by far. Thompson just has the type of game that can get to Ruud, as he’s a good server, a good volleyer and is also willing to grind from the baseline. So, when Ruud is a little cold, Thompson doesn’t give him much to get him going. The Australian can also extend rallies and wait for Ruud to miss.
With all of that in mind, I just can’t help but think that Thompson, who is 4-3 against Ruud in his career, will win this match. These conditions should suit Thompson rather nicely, and he’ll be eager to pick up another win on a big stage. Meanwhile, Ruud just feels like a guy that is waiting for the 2024 season to end.
Bet: Thompson ML (+125 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
