The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my tennis predictions and best bets for Wednesday, October 30th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 816-805 (+35.19 units)
Zizou Bergs vs. Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino has had a really bad 2024 season, as he’s just 15-30 on the year. The struggles have been pretty surprising after a 2023 season in which the Frenchman went a career-best 43-24. But Mannarino did look like the 2023 version of himself in the Round of 64, as he earned a 6-3, 7-5 win as a huge underdog against Tommy Paul. And while I’m not sure we’ll see him play quite that well again, I do think he’ll ride the wave of momentum and beat Bergs.
Mannarino just has the type of game that can frustrate Bergs. The Belgian is a very talented player that is enjoying a nice year on the ATP Tour, which is good to see considering Bergs played great tennis at the Challenger level for years. But Bergs is a very aggressive player and can get a little out of control from the baseline. When he starts racking up unforced errors, they tend to come in bunches. Well, not only is Mannarino a great defensive player that has made a living getting his opponents to make mistakes, but the French crowd will also be pulling for Mannarino in a big way. That could lead to some frustration from Bergs, and that would only add to the problem.
Mannarino also made 70.7% of his first serves against Paul last match, and that’s a serious improvement from what we have seen this season. If he can just keep that number in the high 60s on Wednesday, he’ll have a great shot at winning. Mannarino is the better returner of these two, and it’s difficult to break in these conditions.
Overall, these odds just don’t make a lot of sense after what we saw from Mannarino. This is a very odd tournament and you have to throw out what we saw from the Frenchman earlier in the year. This crowd is willing him back to relevance.
Bet: Mannarino ML (+132)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Karen Khachanov
I had Mpetshi Perricard to win a set against Frances Tiafoe last match, noting that his serve is simply too good for him to suffer a true letdown after last week’s title run. Well, the French phenom ended up winning the match in a tight three-set match, and he did so while turning in a pretty mediocre serving performance. Mpetshi Perricard made only 55.5% of his first serves, which was surprising after he made at least 60.3% in all five of the matches he played in Basel. Well, that poor serving performance only makes me think that things will turn around on Wednesday. This is a guy that is making 65.0% of his first serves on the season. So, he’s due for positive regression. And in a server-friendly environment, that’s bad news for Khachanov.
Khachanov is a better baseliner than Mpetshi Perricard, but I just don’t trust the Russian’s serve to hold up under all the pressure the Frenchman will put on him. Also, I’m not sure how much longer Khachanov will be able to play at a high level. Khachanov won a title in Almaty two weeks ago and then followed it up with a run to the final in Vienna. Then, Khachanov played a physical three-set match against Christopher O’Connell in his first match here. He has now played 10 matches since October 17th, and that has to take a toll on a guy that hasn’t been all that healthy in recent years.
This just feels like a great opportunity for Mpetshi Perricard to pick up another big win, and this is another match in which the French crowd should help. Mpetshi Perricard is now a huge fan favorite in his home country, as the fans know he has a real shot at winning a major one day.
Bet: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-114 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Jack Draper ML (-110) vs. Taylor Fritz
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
