Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai – Monday, October 9
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Asian swing brings us some really big tournaments. This week, the men are in action for a 1000-level event, which is the biggest a tournament can be outside of the four Grand Slams. I’ll be focusing on Shanghai with my tennis best bets for the week. I’m coming off a profitable first few days with this event, so I’m hoping to keep things rolling moving forward. Keep reading for my three plays for Monday, October 9 (with some starting on Sunday, October 8 in the United States).
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Grigor Dimitrov vs. Karen Khachanov
Dimitrov is 3-0 in this head-to-head series, but I like this price for Khachanov — especially considering they haven’t played since 2021. The Russian missed a lot of time over the summer because of injuries, but he has played pretty well since returning to action. After getting bounced in his opening-round match at the US Open, Khachanov went to Zhuhai and won a title. Along the way, he earned wins over Mackenzie McDonald, Sebastian Korda and Yoshihito Nishioka. Playing Dimitrov will be a significant jump in competition level, but this is a matchup I’d like for Khachanov at full strength. And it’s hard to say he’s anything but that right now. Overall, I just think Khachanov has a few more weapons than the Bulgarian, so I’m willing to take a chance at these odds.
Bet: Khachanov ML (+145)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev
Mannarino comes into this match on an eight-match winning streak and won a title in Kazakhstan last week. He’s really playing some good tennis, and he’s looking very confident. That has translated to high-level play in every aspect of the game, and I think he’ll now give Rublev some trouble. Rublev is just 6-6 in his last 12 matches and hasn’t played very well since returning to hard courts in August. I think Mannarino will do a good job of redirecting Rublev’s power from the baseline, forcing the Russian to move around and also occasionally painting lines for winners. I also think Mannarino’s ability to get into service games will give him a chance to win this thing. So, I’m playing Mannarino to win a set and then sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Mannarino +1.5 Sets (+105) & Mannarino ML (+260 – 0.5 units)
JJ Wolf vs. Matteo Arnaldi
The odds for this match just don’t make a lot of sense to me. I can’t think of a single thing that Wolf does better than Arnaldi, and I also think the Italian is a smarter player. On top of that, Arnaldi has just been finding ways to win all year, as he’s 18-13 on the season. That’s a really good record for a player that is essentially playing his first full year on the ATP Tour. And he recently played some Davis Cup matches for Italy, which had him playing big matches around a lot of talented players. I think that experience will only expedite his development process, setting him up for a big 2024 season. But in the present, I just can’t see him having too much trouble in this spot. I think he has a little too much poise for Wolf. This is a big one for me.
Bet: Arnaldi ML (-135 – 2.5 units)
Added Plays
Ugo Humbert ML (+150) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
2023 Overall Record: 291-263 (+49.91 units)
