Indian Wells preview and tennis best bets for Wednesday, March 6
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells tournament futures and best bets for the action you’ll see on Wednesday, March 6th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 115-123 (+7.53 units)
Indian Wells Quick Thoughts
Before betting on this tournament, it’s important to know that this doesn’t play like a typical hard-court event. ITF Court Pace Rating grades Indian Wells’ Plexipave surface as a Category 2. That’s considered a medium-slow speed. When you combine that with the desert conditions, this tournament is slow and gritty. In fact, it plays a little more like a clay-court tournament than a hard-court tournament. That said, you want the players you bet on to be able to grind from the baseline. Take that into consideration before placing your hard-earned money on anything. That’s not to say that big servers can’t get hot here. They absolutely can. But it’s hard to win this tournament if you’re one-dimensional.
Indian Wells Men’s Futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win The Tournament(+430): Alcaraz is the defending champion here, and I had him to win last year. Well, I’m going back to him again. Alcaraz has now watched Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner win the last two Grand Slams. That has to eat him. This might not be a Grand Slam, but it’s an opportunity to make a statement. And Alcaraz’s game is a perfect fit for this event. The Spaniard is an elite mover in every way imaginable, so the fact that these matches play slower will only make it harder to get the ball by him. He’ll also have the opportunity to set his feet and really crush the ball.
Alcaraz is also one of the game’s top returners, so it’ll be unfair to try and hold against him in unfavorable serving conditions. Also, while Alcaraz doesn’t have the most impressive serve, his remarkable serve-and-volley game should help. He’ll be capable of winning points quicker than most.
Alcaraz does have to go through a tough road, as it’s possible he’ll face Alexander Zverev, Sinner and Djokovic in his final three matches. He also has some tough matchups before the quarterfinals. But we’re talking about a player that was viewed as the cream of the crop in the men’s game less than a year ago. He’s capable of beating anybody when he’s playing at a B+ level, and I think he’ll be determined enough to find that here. Also, it’s been some time since these types of odds have been next to Alcaraz’s name. This feels like a great buy-low point, especially considering his ankle injury didn’t look like a problem against Rafael Nadal in The Netflix Slam.
Holger Rune To Win Quarter 2 (+800 – 0.5 units): Rune is coming off a semi-final run in Acapulco, which is another slower hard-court tournament. So, the Dane should be pretty comfortable in the desert. That’s pretty important when you also consider that Rune is a top-10 player in the world. There’s just no reason to think that he can’t make a deep run in Tennis Paradise. I know he might have to face Nadal in the second round, but I’d expect him to come through in that match. I also like Rune to beat Taylor Fritz two rounds later. And Rune should like his chances in a quarter-final meeting with Daniil Medvedev or Grigor Dimitrov. Medvedev doesn’t like playing here, and Rune has come up with the goods against Dimitrov before.
Rune is just a very good player on hard courts and clay courts. This tournament is the best of both worlds, so he should be a tough out here. I also maintain that the partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou will help Rune get to the next level. The early results have been there and I’m expecting bigger things to come.
I’m playing Rune to win Quarter 2. If you can’t find that, I’d suggest taking him to win the tournament at 50-1 and hedging/cashing out as he gets to the later rounds.
Indian Wells Women’s Futures
Jessica Pegula (25-1 – 0.25 units): There isn’t much for me on the women’s side. Iga Swiatek is still the best of the top-four players (Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff), but her ability to have a really off match scares me in these conditions — especially with a tough draw. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking Pegula. She’s in the easier half of the draw, where the top players are Sabalenka and Gauff. And Pegula just played decent tennis in San Diego, allowing her to get her feet wet outdoors in California. Pegula just made changes to her team, so it might be a little soon for her to break through. But she’s a very sturdy player in all aspects of the game, and that’s important at an event like this. Also, these odds are long enough to allow you to hedge if she makes a run.
Indian Wells Tennis Best Bets For Wednesday, March 6th
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Marcos Giron – Scheduled for 2:00 pm ET
Giron is 8-3 in his last 11 matches. All of those tournaments were played on hard courts, and he should be able to keep that momentum going here. Giron was born in California and that should make him pretty comfortable in this event. It should also mean that he’ll have crowd support here. Meanwhile, Kokkinakis is a big server but can be rather erratic everywhere else. That could make this a tough place for him to play. The conditions will likely make his serve easier to return, and Giron’s ability to get balls back will frustrate him. The American can be a wall along the baseline, which means Kokkinakis is a threat to rack up unforced errors. That’s why I’m willing to lay some juice with the first of my Indian Wells best bets.
Bet: Giron ML (-155 – 2 units)
Erika Andreeva vs. Danielle Collins – Scheduled for 5:30 pm ET
Andreeva isn’t as good as her sister, but she’s capable of competing with this version of Collins. For starters, Andreeva had to go through qualifying, and she beat solid players like Emiliana Arango and Kayla Day to get into the main draw. So, Andreeva is going to have some confidence, and she’s also going to be comfortable with the conditions. Meanwhile, Collins already announced that this will be her last year on tour, and she had to retire in the second set of her third-round match in Austin last week. The reason was the same back pain that is forcing her out of the sport to begin with. So, with Collins nowhere near 100%, I like the idea of taking a shot on Andreeva to win a set. Collins is also a pure power player and she might have issues finding her best level in these conditions.
Bet: Andreeva +1.5 Sets (-120 – 2 units)
Added Plays for Wednesday, March 6th
Luca Van Assche ML (+152) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Lucas Pouille ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Daniel Altmaier
JJ Wolf ML (+134) vs. Thiago Seyboth Wild
