Italian Open best bets for Thursday, May 16th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Thursday, May 16th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 291-310 (+22.16 units)
Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz – Rome
According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, nobody in Rome was returning at a higher level than Hubert Hurkacz heading into the quarterfinals. Well, that’s bad news for Tommy Paul when you also consider that Hurkacz is third in the world in hold percentage (90.2%) this season. And the Pole’s hold percentage on clay over the last 52 weeks is up at 86.0%, so it’s not like the dirt is keeping him from racking up easy holds. Overall, I just find it hard to believe that Paul can beat Hurkacz when he’s serving and returning like this. Paul has never been much of a clay-court performer, as he is just 19-25 on the surface on his career. So, even though Paul will have an edge when it comes to baseline play, I think the deck is stacked against him. And it doesn’t hurt that Hurkacz has already won a title on clay this season. He’s really enjoying this surface for the first time in his career.
Bet: Hurkacz ML (-145)
Nicolas Jarry vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Rome
Danielle Collins vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Rome
Stefanos Tsitsipas has the second-best winning percentage (82.4%) on clay over the last 52 weeks. He also won a Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo earlier in the clay-court season. Tsitsipas’ game is just perfect for slower courts, as the higher bounces give him time to uncork his one-handed backhand. That shot is usually a weakness of his, but it’s a tour average shot on clay. That’s plenty good enough considering Tsitsipas is one of the best servers on tour, and his forehand is one of the biggest weapons in the sport. All of that makes it hard not to like him to beat Nicolas Jarry outright in this match. And that’s why Tsitsipas is a massive favorite over the Chilean. But I want to take him to win this, so I’m parlaying Tsitsipas with Danielle Collins +4.5 games to get better odds.
Collins has a tough matchup on deck with Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian earned a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 win when these two met in Madrid last tournament. But Collins should do a little better in these conditions. It’s hard to beat Sabalenka at altitude, as she’s just such a powerful player. But Collins packs a lot of punch herself. She just needs a little time to get herself set up, and the slower conditions in Rome should help her do that. With that in mind, I like the American to keep this match relatively close. And I actually think there’s a decent chance she wins. Collins absolutely bullied Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals, moving her around the baseline and then pummeling winners. If Sabalenka isn’t at her very best, Collins will do the same to her.
PARLAY: Tsitsipas ML & Collins +4.5 Games (-120 – 2 units)
ADDING: Danielle Collins ML (+150) vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Naturally, the safer of the two legs missed. But I do like Collins to win this match, so I’m playing it on its own.
Added Plays
Harold Mayot ML (-175) vs. Daniel Evans [Bordeaux Challenger]
Marc-Andrea Huesler ML (+140) vs. Cortentin Moutet [Turin Challenger]
David Goffin ML (-159 – 1.5 units) vs. Juan Pablo Varillas [Turin Challenger]
Alexander Shevchenko ML (-167 – 1.5 units) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [Bourdeux Challenger]
Gregoire Barrere ML (-154 – 1.5 units) vs. Andy Murray [Bordeaux Challenger]
