Italian Open best bets for Thursday, May 9th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Thursday, May 9th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 261-277 (+25.31 units)
Giulio Zeppieri vs. Matteo Gigante – Rome
I’m rolling with Giulio Zeppieri to win this all-Italian battle in the first round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Gigante has had a really solid season on the Challenger tour, as he is 14-2 and has won two tournaments thus far. But Gigante has never won an ATP-level match, so he’s going to be dealing with a lot of nerves against Zeppieri. Of course, Zeppieri hasn’t had much success at the ATP level himself, but he at least knows what it takes to win. And overall, I just think Zeppieri has a slight edge in weapons here. Zeppieri is a little more proven as a server, and I think his aggressive style of play will make him a difficult opponent for Gigante. And Zeppieri has a booming forehand, so he should win the forehand-to-forehand exchanges between these two lefties. Overall, the difference in experience should give Zeppieri what he needs to get across the finish line.
Bet: Zeppieri ML (-120)
(Match was supposed to take place on Wednesday, May 8th)
Fabio Fognini vs. Daniel Evans – Rome
For as bad as things have been for Fabio Fognini in 2024, it’s hard not to take a shot on the Italian here. The veteran is capable of finding another level when playing in front of his people, and last year’s run to the Round of 32 showed that he’ll forever be dangerous in this venue. Fognini also happened to get a good opening-round draw, as Daniel Evans is just 19-36 on clay in his career. Evans is also 0-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Evans’ slice backhand just isn’t as impactful on this surface, and his serve and forehand aren’t consistent enough for him to find success off grass/hard courts. With that in mind, Evans will need to be perfect in order to find a way to beat Fognini, who is 236-176 on clay in his career. But Evans’ play in 2024 makes it hard to believe he’ll find another gear. So, Fognini should blast him off the court with his absurd all-court power.
Bet: Fognini ML (-141 – 2 units)
(Match was supposed to take place on Wednesday, May 8th)
Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi – Rome
Tomas Machac is 2-0 against Matteo Arnaldi in his career, but things should flip in Rome. Arnaldi is a better clay-court player than Machac, as evidenced by a better record at the ATP level and multiple Challenger-level titles. Machac has never won an event on the dirt. On top of that, Arnaldi will be playing in front of his home crowd. That should give him the extra adrenaline he needs to get the better of Machac from the baseline, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see more unforced errors out of the Czech in this wild atmosphere. It’s also worth noting that Arnaldi’s serve is a lot more reliable than Machac’s on clay. Overall, that just seems like a lot for Machac to have to overcome. So, I’m laying the games with Arnaldi.
Bet: Arnaldi -2.5 Games (-111 – 2 units)
Added Plays
Roman Safiullin ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Cortenin Moutet [Rome]
Alexandre Muller +4.5 Games (-182 – 1.5 units) vs. Marton Fucsovics [Rome]
Enzo Couacaud ML (-114 – 1.5 units) vs. Alex Molcan [Prague Challenger]
Jaime Faria ML (+102 – 1.5 units) vs. Rudolf Molleker [Prague Challenger]
Naomi Osaka ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Marta Kostyuk [Rome]
Daniel Altmaier ML (-150 – 2 units) vs. Luca Nardi [Rome]
Alejo Lavallen ML (+130 – 1.5 units) vs. Renzo Olivo [Santos Challenger]
Marcos Giron ML (+118 – 1.5 units) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori [Rome]
Jack Draper ML (-150 – 2 units) vs. Borna Coric [Rome]
Brenda Fruhvirtova ML (-125 – 1.5 units) vs. Sorana Cirstea [Rome]
Paula Badosa ML (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Emma Navarro [Rome]
