Italian Open best bets for Wednesday, May 15th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Wednesday, May 15th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 283-305 (+17.97 units)
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Zhizhen Zhang – Rome
This is a match in which I think the odds should be way closer to even money, so I’m putting quite a bit on Zhizhen Zhang to win this thing. Throughout this tournament, Zhang has just been playing some tremendous attacking tennis, and he is also second of the remaining players in steal percentage (all insights and shot quality numbers from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations). So, not only is Zhang going for wingers, but he is also creating magic out of thin air when he’s on defense. And overall, Zhang and Alejandro Tabilo are neck and neck when it comes to baseline battles this tournament. So, when you add in the fact that Zhang has a little more power and has been clicking from the backhand side, it’s hard not to like him as a plus-money play here.
Zhang could also be due for some positive regression from the forehand wing here. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Zhang’s forehand quality down at 7.0 in Rome thus far. But over the last 52 weeks, that shot is a 7.7 out of 10 for the powerful baseliner. And if he starts hitting his spots with that forehand, Tabilo is going to be in trouble.
All in all, it just feels like Tabilo is being a little overvalued because of his wins over Novak Djokovic and Karen Khachanov. But there’s not much that separates these two, even when it comes to raw clay-court Elo rating. So, how can you not like some great odds on a match that is closer to 50/50?
Bet: Zhang ML (+145 – 2 units)
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Rome
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev – Rome
I’m playing a two-leg parlay as part of a small slate in Rome on Wednesday. The first leg will require Aryna Sabalenka to beat Jelena Ostapenko. These two have surprisingly played only twice in their careers, and Sabalenka is 2-0 against Ostapenko in those matches. Now, those two players meet on clay, where Sabalenka has found another gear in recent years. Not only is Sabalenka 60-26 on the dirt in her career, but she is also 14-4 on clay over the last 52 weeks. And what’s concerning for Ostapenko heading into this match is that she is holding at just 62.1% on clay over the last 52 weeks. In that same span, Sabalenka is holding at 77.0%. That’s just a massive difference in one of the most important parts of the sport. As long as Sabalenka is holding a little easier, I just can’t see her losing this match. I know Ostapenko is a fantastic returner, but there won’t be much she can do if Sabalenka is hitting her spots. And Sabalenka is one of the few players with the ability to out-muscle Ostapenko, who deploys a “see ball, hit ball” baseline approach.
To get Sabalenka at a more reasonable price, I’m adding Alexander Zverev to win a set against Taylor Fritz. Zverev has a serve quality score of 9.1 since arriving in Rome, which is a little better than Fritz’s 8.8. Zverev has also been a little better as a returner, as he has a 6.6 return quality and Fritz’s is down at 6.2. But perhaps most importantly, Zverev’s been hitting his forehand a lot better. His forehand quality in Rome sits at 8.4, while Fritz’s is down at 7.2. Considering the forehand is a bit of a weakness for Zverev, it’s nice to see him hitting that well from that wing. Also, Fritz has the best shot quality from the backhand side of any of the remaining players in Rome. But Zverev’s backhand is world class and he won’t back down from backhand-to-backhand exchanges with Fritz. With that in mind, Zverev is really performing at a bit of a higher level than Fritz right now, and he also has the highest steal percentage of anybody in Rome. So, I think it’s safe to play Zverev to simply win a set. Maybe Fritz wins this match, but doing so in straight sets is a tough ask.
PARLAY: Sabalenka ML & Zverev +1.5 Sets (-145 – 2 units)
Quick Note: I also like Zverev ML up to -175. So, if you missed out on this parlay and desperately want something on that match, I’d say to suck it up and bite the bullet with the juice.
Victoria Azarenka vs. Danielle Collins – Rome
Danielle Collins has been one of the best players in the world in 2024, but I think it’s hard to expect her to completely wipe the floor with Victoria Azarenka. After all, the Belarusian is playing some great tennis lately. Azarenka comes into this match after having won six of her last eight clay-court matches. And her most recent match was a 6-4, 6-1 beatdown of Maria Sakkari, who was a heavy betting favorite to win. Overall, this match should feature some powerful hitting from the baseline, and both players will do a lot of damage as returners. But Azarenka actually has a slight advantage as a server, which is why I just can’t see this being anything but a close match. So, I’m playing her to cover a 4.5-game spread at a juiced number. And I’m also putting a little on the moneyline.
Bet: Azarenka +4.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units) & Azarenka ML (+185 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML (-190 – 1.5 units) vs. Constant Lestienne [Bordeaux Challenger]
Harold Mayot ML (-118 – 2 units) vs. Sumit Nagal [Bordeaux Challenger]
Mitchell Krueger ML (-150 – 2 units) vs. Murkel Dellien Velasco [Tunis Challenger]
Alexander Zverev ML (-160) vs. Taylor Fritz [Rome]
Aleksandar Kovacevic -1.5 Sets (+110) vs. Matteo Martineau [Bordeaux Challenger]
Juncheng Shang ML (-143 – 1.5 units) vs. Hugo Gaston [Bordeaux Challenger]
PARLAY: Roberto Bautista Agut ML vs. Mackenzie McDonald & Andy Murray +1.5 Sets vs. Kyrian Jacquet (-176 – 1.5 units) [Bordeaux Challenger]
