Italian Open best bets for Wednesday, May 8th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Wednesday, May 8th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 261-276 (+26.93 units)
Laura Siegemund vs. Maria Lourdes Carle – Rome
Laura Siegemund went through qualifiers without dropping a single set. The German has now won 11 of the 15 matches she has played since the Miami Open, and that stretch includes an 8-3 record on clay. Siegemund has also turned in some impressive performances in that span, as she knocked off Beatriz Haddad Maia at the Billie Jean King Cup and barely lost to Marta Kostyuk in a competitive three-set match in Stuttgart. Overall, I just like the way the veteran is playing right now, so I think this is a very reasonable price to be paying for her to beat Maria Lourdes Carle. Carle has had some tremendous success at the ITF level this year, as she is 17-4 in 21 matches down there. But Carle is just 7-10 in her WTA career, and I don’t think her serve is good enough to get her through this match. In four WTA matches this year, Carle is holding at just 47.2%. And it’s not like that is some major fluke, as she is only holding at 63.8% in ITF matches. She’s just not reliable with the ball on her racquet, and she relies a little too heavily on her return game and baseline play. Well, Siegemund is plenty capable of besting her there.
Bet: Seigemund ML (-137)
Terence Atmane vs. Christopher Eubanks – Rome
Terence Atmane is definitely more comfortable than Christopher Eubanks on clay. But Eubanks’ serve is still going to be the biggest weapon in this match. That makes it hard to imagine a scenario in which the American will get completely blown out here. Eubanks is holding at 87.1% this season, while Atmane is holding at just 65.1%. And the interesting thing about that is that Eubanks’ poor career clay-court hold percentage of 75.0% is still higher. With that in mind, I think it’s safe to expect Eubanks to hang around in this match. And the slower conditions in Rome should actually give Eubanks some break point opportunities. So, I’m not going to overthink this one. I’m taking the 3.5 games with the better player. The surface shouldn’t make this big of a difference.
Bet: Eubanks +3.5 Games (-108 – 1.5 units)
Giulio Zeppieri vs. Matteo Gigante – Rome
I’m rolling with Giulio Zeppieri to win this all-Italian battle in the first round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Gigante has had a really solid season on the Challenger tour, as he is 14-2 and has won two tournaments thus far. But Gigante has never won an ATP-level match, so he’s going to be dealing with a lot of nerves against Zeppieri. Of course, Zeppieri hasn’t had much success at the ATP level himself, but he at least knows what it takes to win. And overall, I just think Zeppieri has a slight edge in weapons here. Zeppieri is a little more proven as a server, and I think his aggressive style of play will make him a difficult opponent for Gigante. And Zeppieri has a booming forehand, so he should win the forehand-to-forehand exchanges between these two lefties. Overall, the difference in experience should give Zeppieri what he needs to get across the finish line.
Bet: Zeppieri ML (-120)
Fabio Fognini vs. Daniel Evans – Rome
For as bad as things have been for Fabio Fognini in 2024, it’s hard not to take a shot on the Italian here. The veteran is capable of finding another level when playing in front of his people, and last year’s run to the Round of 32 showed that he’ll forever be dangerous in this venue. Fognini also happened to get a good opening-round draw, as Daniel Evans is just 19-36 on clay in his career. Evans is also 0-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Evans’ slice backhand just isn’t as impactful on this surface, and his serve and forehand aren’t consistent enough for him to find success off grass/hard courts. With that in mind, Evans will need to be perfect in order to find a way to beat Fognini, who is 236-176 on clay in his career. But Evans’ play in 2024 makes it hard to believe he’ll find another gear. So, Fognini should blast him off the court with his absurd all-court power.
Bet: Fognini ML (-141 – 2 units)
Added Plays
Roman Safiullin ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Cortenin Moutet [Rome]
