Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Monday, March 25
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next week. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for Monday, March 25th. Keep reading for some of my favorite plays of the day, but make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. I like to see how the odds move throughout the day and I tend to add a few picks each day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 166-186 (+9.84 units)
Madison Keys vs. Elena Rybakina
Keys looked pretty miserable at Indian Wells, but she has bounced back in Miami. The American comes into this match after straight-set wins over Diana Shnaider and Xinyu Wang. Her rally tolerance has really picked up in the last two weeks, and she now faces an out-of-form Elena Rybakina. The 2022 Wimbledon champion needed three sets to beat both Clara Tauson and Taylor Townsend, two players with a lot of flaws. So, she’s looking a bit vulnerable heading into a meeting with Keys, who is playing in her home state and absolutely loves these conditions.
Keys is one of the best servers in the world when she’s locked in, and she also packs a lot of punch from the baseline. Those strengths happen to mirror Rybakina’s, which is probably why the American has found some success in this series. Keys is 2-1 in three meetings with Rybakina, and the one loss went to three sets. With that in mind, Keys forcing a decider seems very likely. But I’m just taking her to cover 3.5 games. And I’m also sprinkling her to win outright.
Bet: Keys +3.5 Games (-105 – 1.5 units) & Keys ML (+225 – 0.5 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Ben Shelton
Musetti is one of the most talented players in the men’s game, but he has very high highs and very low lows. However, the Italian has found his game over the last two weeks. At Indian Wells, Musetti earned a win over Denis Shapovalov and then pushed Holger Rune in a match that was closer than the final score suggested. Then Musetti got to Miami and earned a dominant win over Roman Safiullin. Musetti just has firepower from all over the court, as he can rip the ball with his forehand and one-handed backhand. He just needs to do everything he can to prevent the unforced errors from racking up. And he needs to make some first serves. He did both against Safiullin.
Shelton is definitely a tough player to face, as he has more power than pretty much anyone in the world. But this just feels like a match in which there will be very few service breaks. So, I feel good about taking Musetti to win a set — and sprinkling the moneyline. Shelton can always count on his talent keeping him in matches, but Musetti is right there when it comes to natural ability. The Italian also happens to be loving the small cheering section that is following him around in Miami.
Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-132 – 1.5 units) & Musetti ML (+230 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Hubert Hurkacz ML vs. Sebastian Korda + Danielle Collins ML vs. Sorana Cirstea (+152 – 1.5 units)
Sunday’s Plays
Lorenzo Musetti ML (+155) vs. Roman Safiullin
Denis Shapovalov ML (-128 – 1.5 units) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Caroline Garcia ML (+200 – 0.5 units) vs. Naomi Osaka
Saturday’s Plays
Nicolas Jarry +1.5 Sets (-128 – 1.5 units) vs. Jack Draper
Nicolas Jarry ML (+240 – 0.5 units) vs. Jack Draper
Andy Murray ML (-150 – 1.5 units) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Dan Evans ML (-155) vs. Christopher Eubanks
Katie Boulter ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Victoria Azarenka ML (+134) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Tallon Griekspoor ML (-122 – 1.5 units) vs. Alex Michelsen
Sebastian Korda -1.5 Sets (+120) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
