Monte Carlo Masters tennis best bets for Tuesday, April 9
There’s nothing quite like the heart of clay-court season, which truly begins with the Monte Carlo Masters in France. This is a tournament that ranks just below the four Grand Slams in terms of importance. And while the field for this event is smaller, it’s absolutely loaded with talent. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will all be out there for this event, but it’s Andrey Rublev who is the defending champion here. Those four, along with several other remarkable players, will be gunning for the first Masters 1000 title of 2024 on the dirt. And we’ll be providing you with tennis best bets on a daily basis for this one. Make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Tuesday, April 9th. Also, make sure you come back throughout the day, as I constantly add picks to my card. So, if you’re interested in a match and want to see what I have on it, come back before first ball and see if I added something on it!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 189-217 (-1.83 units)
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta
Diaz Acosta lost his second qualifying match to Sumit Nagal, but he got into the main draw anyway. Now, the lefty will look to find a way to beat Roberto Bautista Agut. Last year, this match would have had Bautista Agut as a favorite of -250 or more. However, the Spaniard has really struggled in 2024. He’s just 5-8 on the season and that’s not great after a 2023 season in which he went 17-21. Bautista Agut still has a booming forehand, but he has gotten a lot worse as both a server and a returner. And his movement along the baseline is becoming an issue. He used to be a tremendous defender. Age is clearly getting to Bautista Agut in a big way.
With all of that in mind, Diaz Acosta should be able to find a way to win this match, even if he has struggled a bit since bursting on the scene in February. He just needs to do everything he can to prolong rallies, as Bautista Agut isn’t in a position to win long, physical matches anymore.
Bet: Diaz Acosta ML (+115)
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Marcos Giron
Giron was playing some great tennis in February, as he made a final in Dallas and backed it up with a run to the semis in Delray Beach. But those were hard-court events, and Giron was really in a nice groove. He was absolutely punishing shots, even on the move. However, Giron has lost that form completely, and he comes into this event after having been blown out by Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinals in Houston. Giron also lost in the second round in Los Cabos, and he followed it up with opening-round losses in Indian Wells and Miami.
Giron just isn’t much of a slow-court player and I think he lacks the weapons required to beat Zhang on clay. Zhang might not be playing all that well right now, but I trust his power and all-around approach to be a little too much for his opponent here. Zhang is also 10-7 on clay over the last 52 weeks.
Bet: Zhang ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Alex De Minaur
Matteo Berrettini vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
With the first of a two-leg parlay, I’m playing De Minaur to beat Wawrinka. De Minaur hasn’t had much success on clay, as he is just 20-28 in tour-level matches on the dirt. However, the 25-year-old has taken his game to new heights. De Minaur used to just be a backboard along the baseline, capable of returning anything and ultimately grinding his opponents down. De Minaur can still very much do that. However, he is more dangerous as a server now, and he also has the ability to put away points. That has made him a dangerous player on slower hard courts this year, and it’s only a matter of time before it translates to clay. And I like him to get the job done against Wawrinka, who still has flashes of brilliance but tends to fade late in matches. That’s not what you want against the most physical player on tour.
As for Berrettini, the Italian is coming off a title run in Marrakech. Berrettini appears to have found the form that once made him a top player in the sport, and the reality is that he just needed some good injury luck in order to get there. But now that Berrettini is playing well again, he should be able to beat a player like Kecmanovic on clay. Berrettini has a clear edge as a server, and his forehand will be the biggest weapon from the baseline. Berrettini’s backhand also isn’t as big of a weakness on clay, as he has time to set up and avoid making errors from that wing. Also, Kecmanovic’s form is miserable right now. He has lost four in a row and I just don’t see him making this competitive.
PARLAY: De Minaur ML/Berrettini ML (+109 – 2 units)
Jack Draper vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz won a title in Estoril last week and he’s the more known player between these two. So, people will naturally look to back Hurkacz here. However, Hurkacz’s serve, one of the biggest weapons in the sport, is not as dangerous on these courts. That will give Draper, the better baseline player and overall athlete, the opening he needs to get the job done here. Draper actually dismantled Hurkacz at the US Open in 2023, beating him in straight sets on a court that should have favored the Pole. So, I feel pretty good about Draper’s chances and like him as a plus-money play here. Draper also hits with a bit more spin than Hurkacz, which is important in Monte Carlo. That’s not something I’m willing to ignore when looking at Draper, who is a guy with the ability to be a successful clay-court player. Hurkacz should also be a little fatigued after a win last week that featured some battles.
Bet: Draper ML (+120)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Sebastian Korda
This match opened with Davidovich Fokina as a -135 favorite. But you can now get the Spaniard at even-money odds. Of course, that means that some heavy money came in on Korda. But you can’t ignore the fact that this is a clay-court match. And while Korda might have an all-court game, he’s just 18-15 on clay in his ATP career. And he’s just 1-4 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina is 39-34 on clay on his ATP career, and he has been to the finals of this very tournament. With that in mind, I give him a slight edge over Korda in these conditions, so I can’t get on board with an implied probability of 50.0%. If these two played this match 10 times, I’d say Davidovich Fokina wins six of them. That said, this is a value play for me.
The serving in this match has the potential to be pretty ugly, with neither one of these players being trustworthy there. So, I’m backing the player with the baseline game that I trust more, and I give an edge to Davidovich Fokina there. Korda is viewed as one of the best ball strikers in the sport, but he can rack up unforced errors when he’s not locked in. And he generally has issues staying 100% focused out there. Korda also hits a flatter ball and that isn’t quite as impactful on slow courts like these. Davidovich Fokina hits with heavier topspin and that should allow him to control points.
Davidovich Fokina’s raw clay-court Elo rating is also over 200 points higher than Korda’s. I don’t often rely on those numbers, but that’s a pretty substantial difference.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (+100)
Added Plays
Roman Safiullin +5.5 Games (-170 – 1.5 units) vs. Novak Djokovic
Jan-Lennard Struff ML (-105 – 2 units) vs. Borna Coric
Arthur Fils ML (+168 – 1.5 units) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Juan Pablo Ficovich ML (-147 – 2 units) vs. Goncalo Oliveira [Morelos Challenger)
Nick Hardt ML (+110 – 1.5 units) vs. Rudolph Molleker [Madrid Challenger]
Aidan Mayo ML (+114 – 1.5 units) vs. Omar Jasika [Morelos Challenger]
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez +4.5 Games (-135 – 2 units) vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante [Morelos Challenger]
Federico Agustin Gomez +4.5 Games (-170 – 1.5 units) vs. Gabriel Diallo [Sarasota Challenger]
Alexis Galarneau ML (+158 – 1.5 units) vs. Rinky Hijikata [Morelos Challenger]
Monday’s Plays
Corentin Moutet ML (-133 – 1.5 units) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Jaume Munar ML (-158 – 2 units) vs. Roman Safiullin
Karen Khachanov ML (-135 – 1.5 units) vs. Cameron Norrie
Federico Coria Over 11.5 Games (-110) vs. Ugo Humbert
PARLAY: Martin Damm ML vs. Toby Alex Kodat + Zizou Bergs ML vs. Oliver Crawford (-125 – 2 units) [Sarasota Challenger]
