Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Friday, April 26th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next two weeks, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Friday, April 26th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 237-244 (+34.62 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – Madrid
Jan-Lennard Struff won a clay-court title in Munich last week. That was the first ATP-level title of the 33-year-old’s career. With that in mind, I think Struff is in for something of a letdown performance here. It’s hard to match that type of energy two weeks in a row, especially considering Struff was playing in his home country. Also, Struff is going up against a very good clay-court player. Jaume Munar is 15-12 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks, and he has won nine Challenger-level events on clay.
The Spaniard just knows how to get the job done on this surface, and he’ll be the one with the crowd here. Also, Struff’s game is rather simple. He has a big serve and plays a power game from the baseline. But Munar is a really tough returner on clay. Over the last 52 weeks, his break percentage is up at 31.7% on the dirt. He’s going to do his best to get his racquet on the ball and send it deep in the court to give himself chances. And Munar will have the edge in most longer points.
This just feels like a match that should be priced closer to even-money odds, so I’m taking a shot on Munar to win outright.
Bet: Munar ML (+160)
Mariano Navone vs. Holger Rune – Madrid
I’m a big believer in Holger Rune’s game, but he hasn’t looked right for a while now. Sure, there have been some glimpses of the player he was at his peak, but the inconsistency is alarming. And last week’s 6-2, 6-0 loss to Struff was especially rough. Rune should not be losing that easily against a player like Struff. His mother did say that he wasn’t feeling well after the match, and the conditions in Germany were brutal. But Rune is just hard to trust right now. That makes it hard not to like Mariano Navone to make this close. And I think he has a shot at winning this match.
Navone has already won 11 clay-court matches this year. He absolutely loves this surface and it’s the only one he has played on this season. So, he has great feel on the dirt. And he comes into this match in tremendous form. The same can’t be said for Rune. It’s also hard to overlook the fact that Navone has the highest break percentage on tour this season (38.0%). So, if Rune is shaky with his serve, Navone will make him pay. And that’s one area of Rune’s game that comes and goes, so it’s definitely something that can swing this match.
Overall, this is more of a fade on Rune, but it helps that Navone is so dangerous on clay. But this should be a fun match to watch, so do your best to try and catch some of it.
Bet: Navone +1.5 Sets (-134 – 2 units) & Navone ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Remy Bertola +4.5 Games (-118 – 1.5 units) vs. James Duckworth [Shenzhen Challenger]
Remy Bertola ML (+280 – 0.5 units) vs. James Duckworth [Shenzhen Challenger]
